This article offers a trenchant analysis of the economics of politics as practised in our clime using the parable of the knife and yam. The battle for 2027 has ignited a strategic recalibration. The APC, ADC, PDP, and LP are all interested in the yam. But the question is, who is holding the knife? This piece focuses on the 13 states in the north-east and the north-west. These are the regions where Northern bloc votes are concentrated, and they are given to those who command a cult following, such as the late Muhammadu Buhari. But he left no successor. Even though some folks are trying to impose themselves as successors to the Muhammadu Buhari political bloc. President Bola Tinubu knows this. And it doesn’t appear he is nervous. He is calling off many bluffs.
Terms and conditions apply.
President Tinubu has, through his actions, made it clear that everything must be on his terms and conditions from the outset of his administration. Those who saw wisdom in the “Tinubu doctrine” have realigned. Today, the All Progressive Congress (APC) controls 10 of the 13 states in the North-west and North-east. In 2023, President Tinubu won only three states in the North-east and North-west (Borno, Zamfara, and Jigawa). He was able to garner 25% in most of the northern states. That was what he needed. And he got it. But it came at a political cost only Tinubu can estimate.
Before 2023, Tinubu made his yams available for every politician who wanted a slice. He has his barns widely spread across the country. It is rumoured that there is no relevant northern politician who hasn’t sliced from his yams, whether in APC, PDP or the ADC. Traditionally, Tinubu supports politically and financially. This is his trademark. It wasn’t a foolish decision. He gives anything and everything in the pursuit of an objective, as his political associates tell us. But usually not for free. By my reckoning, he was interested in the knife used to slice his yams. And in 2023, he got hold of the knife when he was elected president. In the economics of politics, anyone with the “knife and yam” decides who gets what, when, and how. This is what would make the 2027 presidential election an interesting one. Terms and conditions would apply.
The Economics of Politics
The politics of religion was demystified in 2023. In the annals of our democratic experience, Tinubu is the first to achieve this feat at the presidential level. He ran a Muslim-Muslim ticket. It was a case of political correctness, as opposed to religious correctness. The 1993 Abiola-Kingibe attempt was truncated. Tinubu was Abiola’s protégé. That experience was worth the while for him in his 2023 presidential bid. He shattered the “unwritten rule” that had governed the Fourth Republic since 1999. This political pattern will continue for a long time to come. The “Economics of Politics” is poised to become the new primary currency of our elections. This is not because we have stopped being religious, but because economic survival has become a more urgent “faith”
Kwankwasiyya is rattled.
The Kwankwasiyya movement does not have a political ideology. It is a gambit to attain political power. The recent defection of Abba Kabir Yusuf, the governor of Kano State, to the APC hit hard. The leader of the Kwakwasiyya movement, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, has termed this move a betrayal. Betrayal of what? The Kano governor has been the de facto political leader of the movement through the “Abba Gida-Gida” brand. Not many knew this. He carved a niche for himself since 2019, when he first contested the gubernatorial election in the state. The chant “Abba Gida-Gida” is not mere. It resonates. We might be looking at a new movement in the making in Kano state’s stormy political terrain. Did we notice that upon defection of the governor to the APC, the Tinubu infinity symbol was added to the red cap?
No amount of political sermon can change this political reality. No doubt, Kwankwaso will fight back. But would it be wise to fight with a Dane gun when your opponent is holding an AK-47 assault rifle? Tinubu has a keen interest in Kano state. He has patronised the state politically. This explains why I think the Kano state governor was wise with his political decision. He chose “income and power” over “prestige and sentiments”. This explains the concept of Homo “politicus” and Homo “economicus” in the economics of politics.
Homo “politicus” and Homo “economicus”
What drives political behaviours? Gordon Tullock, an American professor of law and economics at the George Mason University School of Law, postulated that “Homo politicus (political man) and Homo economicus (economic man) are the same species, and largely driven by self-interest in vigorous pursuit of such personal objectives as wealth, power, prestige, and income security within the confines of society.” This is prevalent in northern Nigeria. The irony is that most northern political leaders are not in tune with the political reality that Tinubu is now the custodian of the knife. They hailed him as the “Jagaban” because of his yams. He knew this and consequently stooped to conquer, utilising the concept of Homo “politicus” and Homo “economicus.” This is his area of core political competence. He holds the ace in this regard. He deserves his due recognition.
Arewa House Library
Tinubu has invested heavily in northern Nigeria. And 2027 would be payback time. This is a statement of fact. I will give an example. Arewa House is the archival centre of Northern Nigeria. It holds the history of the region from inception. It served as the office and official residence of the Premier of the Northern Region at one time. It has a very rich library. I frequently visited the library for research purposes on several occasions. After about a year’s absence, I visited again in 2021, and I was jolted. I didn’t recognise the library. It felt like I was in the wrong place. I was pacified when I read a plaque on the wall that read thus: “The Arewa House Library Complex is upgraded and commissioned by His Excellency, (Sen) Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu, former governor of Lagos State, on the 13th July 2021.” I didn’t know what to make of this gesture at the time. Why Arewa House and why its Library? It was a political investment.
Tinubu’s political means and methods are unique and it has worked for him. The Arewa House Library renovation is one of the several hundred political investments he has made in the region. Politics is a game of chess. I am not convinced that Tinubu cares about the perception around his political actions and inactions. The knife is in his custody as things stand. He is grounded in the doctrine of Homo “politicus” and Homo “economicus”. In the economics of politics, when an individual holds the knife and the yam, everything is on his terms and conditions. This is what would play out in the 2027 presidential election if Tinubu decides to contest. This is the transactional reality. If you want to eat, you must negotiate with the man holding the knife.
Views expressed by contributors are strictly personal and not of TheCable.
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