As Nigeria and South Africa prepare for a presidential binational commission meeting expected to take place in South Africa next month, it is worth pondering the state of what should be Africa’s most strategic bilateral relationship which continues to be characterised by competition and cooperation, as well as much mutual mistrust.
Both countries represent an eagle and a springbok. The eagle has a reputation of being able to soar high above stormy clouds, symbolising the resilience of Nigerians. Springboks are graceful gazelles that can subsist for long periods without water, characterising the similar toughness of South Africans.
At the recent BRICS summit in Johannesburg, diplomatic eyebrows were raised at Ethiopia and Egypt (along with Argentina, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates) being invited to join the group, while a lackadaisical Nigeria – Africa’s largest economy and most populous nation – appears to have been overlooked.
By 2022, trade between Nigeria and South Africa was worth R18.6 billion, down from a pre-COVID-19 figure of R59 billion. In a blow to bilateral ties, Shoprite sold its supermarket chain in Nigeria to local buyers in 2021, while the Southern Sun hotel group announced a similar winding down of its interests in the country a year later.
Like MTN – which was fined $1.7 billion in 2016 for failing to disconnect illicit SIM cards – Shoprite, Southern Sun, and Multichoice have all complained about Nigeria’s erratic regulatory environment, with Shoprite also struggling to clear its goods at Nigeria’s ports. South African companies feel that they are being targeted by Nigerian regulators: a worrying sign if Abuja is to attract much needed foreign investment.
President Cyril Ramaphosa attended the tenth session of the binational commission in Abuja in 2021 involving working groups on politics and consular issues; trade, industry and investments; minerals and energy; security and defence; and the social sector. Further poisoning bilateral ties, however, Nigerian shops and properties in Johannesburg were destroyed in the same year in a repeat of earlier xenophobic attacks. Reprisal attacks took place against MTN offices and Shoprite in Nigeria. Complicating this situation has been the Nigerian-on-Nigerian violence carried out in South Africa by cultist groups like Black Axe and the Vikings which killed over 30 Nigerians between October 2021 and January 2022.
The Nigeria–South Africa consular and migration forum met in Pretoria in February 2022 to follow up on the binational commission, but no early warning system had been established in the three years since earlier attacks on Nigerians in South Africa. Bilateral accords have tended to rely disproportionately on both governments to implement without sufficient private sector and civil society participation.
A particular source of friction for Nigerians has involved persistent visa delays. The overstretched South African consulate in Lagos – which typically processes a monthly average of 1,000 applications – spends much of its time on visas, as it deems the vast majority of applicants to be fraudulent. These capacity constraints have inevitably resulted in lengthy delays, and much frustration among Nigerians.
Despite efforts to “reset” this relationship, both countries represent crippled giants suffering from high unemployment and indebtedness, sluggish growth, widespread youth joblessness, and low investment. South Africa continues to experience crime and loadshedding (persistent power outages), while Nigeria – with its dilapidated infrastructure – has been unable to stem instability across its country.
Both African powers – which account for over 60% of their subregional economies – require genuine vision to promote effective regional integration using ECOWAS and SADC as regional pillars to achieve continental integration. Despite euphoric talk of a renewed “strategic partnership”, this relationship still has a long way to go before Abuja and Tshwane can act as engines of growth to power Africa’s sputtering locomotive.
The Nigerian eagle must soar while the South African springbok gallops in sync, if Africa is to be reborn.
Professor Adebajo is a Senior Research Fellow at the University of Pretoria’s Centre for the Advancement of Scholarship. Bookcraft has published an edition of his book The Eagle and the Springbok: Essays on Nigeria and South Africa.
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