“Elections, unfortunately, can only determine who has the most support among the candidates and not who is the most competent of them all. We have no way of knowing who will do well. Performance is not determined by campaign poetry or the ability to make an authoritative PowerPoint presentation. Competence is not determined by popular vote. Nowhere in the world is an election guaranteed to elect the best candidate. Rather, elections determine the candidate or the party with the most support. We need to let this fact sink in well.” – Simon Kolawole @ Thisday @ 13th November 2022.
Aftermath of the primary elections in the parties in the run off to the June 18 gubernatorial election in Ekiti State, this columnist had a significant encounter with an experienced grassroot politician. In my shuttling between Lagos and Ekiti, my home state, to conduct ethnographic research study of the people, politics and politicking, my path crossed with this politician as I engaged him in dissecting issues of concern as to who would likely emerge as the man in the saddle come 16th of October 2022 as the de jure Governor of Ekiti State. He did not mince words as he posited proudly that BAO (Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji) of APC would convincingly win and be elected as the helmsman in Ekiti in the 18th June election. Then, I confronted him, as an analyst cum social and public affairs commentator on the rising profile of Engr. Segun Oni, the gubernatorial candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP). It is instructive to pontificate that as at the time of my engaging this politician, Segun Oni’s popularity was raving and roaring in the social media and airwaves all over in Ekiti and beyond. In fact, a leading chieftain of his party once proudly posited: “we are the only one campaigning, others had gone under …” So, it seemed! However, unknown to him, the APC as this columnist was reliably informed by one of its key leaders strategically engaged in silent but salient campaigns to outsmart the opposition. Back to my encounter with this grassroot politician. He responded by saying something that succinctly sunk into my memory even as I am writing this piece. To him: “Segun Oni has the crowd whilst we (APC) have the people.” It was as the results were trickling in the aftermath of the 18th June election that the import of that seemingly terse but tantalizing statement started making meaning to the discerning minds including this columnist. In essence, in the lexicon of Nigeria’s polity, politics and politicking, crowd and people are not synonymous. Putting it simply and squarely, the crowd has no electoral value when it comes to election while your “own people”, as a candidate vying for an elective post, will side and stand with you on the day of election. In my engagement with this versatile grassroot politician, he made another poignant but powerful statement that etched in my memory as well: “making noise is not synonymous with music.”, interpreted in Yoruba common parlance as: “ariwo ko ni music.” Ace columnist, Simon Kolawole riveted home some salient and succinct stand and stake of this grassroot politician when he posited in his column thus: “Elections, unfortunately, can only determine who has the most support among the candidates and not who is the most competent of them all … Competence is not determined by popular vote. Nowhere in the world is an election guaranteed to elect the best candidate. Rather, elections determine the candidate or the party with the most support. We need to let this fact sink in well.” – Simon Kolawole, Thisday, Sunday, 13th November 2022.
Politicians, Parties and People
As the 2023 presidential election beckons, certain core, crucial and critical conditions will determine the outcome or dictate the direction of the swinging of the pendulum. As succinctly and saliently stated in a previous article in this column, the race towards the February 2023 election, about three months from now, is between three parties and three politicians. The people (followers) are the deciders. The three parties alphabetically listed are: All Progressives Congress (APC), Labour Party (LP), and People Democratic Party (PDP). This columnist does not see the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) going far into the marathonic presidential race. In fact, in the long run, NNPP and the flagbearer may later step down for one of the leading contenders as the race to Aso Rock hots up early in 2023. In contrast, the politicians to watch out for in the hotly contested race are: Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the APC; former Governor Peter Obi, the flag bearer of the LP; and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the PDP. Putting it into context, a keen observer could perceive the jostling and juggling for the people’s attention from these parties and politicians flying their flags. Is it then baffling and bewildering that some of their supporters had gone low in character assassination, campaign of calumny and mudslinging in order to gain attraction and attention of the people? It is high time the National Assembly (NASS) crafted a law with strong punitive measures against purveyors and originators of fake news! It is disheartening and degrading for an up-and-coming television station, Arise News, to be in the news for the wrong reason. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) refuted any purported plan to investigate Tinubu with the intention of disqualifying him for the race. Arise News, in a seemingly pedestrian, petty, puerile and partisan posture, was vociferous in announcing to the whole world of this unverified “news”! Regrettably, the management issued a rebuttal and requested for forgiveness from Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. The latter is yet to personally speak whether the public apology as done was accepted or not. If I were in the camp of Asiwaju, there would have been two options I would have proffered to serve as deterrent to erring junk journalists in future. One: approach a court of competent jurisdiction to sue Arise News. Two: charge the station to desist forthwith from airing anything on the APC’s flagbearer’s personality, pedigree and political moves except news that have been verified from appropriate sources till the election of February 2023 is over. The conundrum cum confusion that DAAR Communications, owners of African Independent Television (AIT), entered into that almost sounded the death knell of the organization in 2015/2016 ought to teach other media outfits the need to tread warily and watchfully. DAAR Communication had to seek out of court settlement whilst begging for forgiveness seeing the N150 billion suit dangling on its head as the sword of Damocles! In his characteristic magnanimity, Asiwaju Tinubu forgave the organization and moved on.
In essence, there are three politicians standing out for election: Atiku Abubakar, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and Peter Obi. In a way, and to some extent, some people, not the motley crowd, will base their choices partly on the profiles, pedigrees, personalities, past performances and politics of these individuals. In essence, the choices made by some come February 2023 will hang on one or two or all of these identified traits and preferences. Firstly, with the former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, he was the erstwhile No. 2 personality in the two terms of former President Olusegun Obasanjo that took oversight of the economy especially the controversial privatization scheme that Chief Olusegun Obasanjo did not have palpable palatable perspectives on in his treatise: “My Watch.” This columnist would not want to digress into the denigrating remarks of Chief Obasanjo which the handlers of the PDP candidate has not bothered to address and which are widely published. They need to go this route for the people to side and support the candidate of PDP. As for the LP candidate, Mr. Peter Obi, there were 8 points of concerns raised by someone and published online. These eight points rubbished the purported refined personality, profile and pedigree of Obi. The Obidient movement, as Peter Obi’s adherents and admirers loved to be called, should interrogate and interface their leader on these publicised apparent aberrations. Elder statesman, Dr. Femi Orebe, in his column in the Nation (Sunday, 13th November 2022), referring to this, stated inter alia: “… Peter Obi, of the “Pandora Papers fame, loves to present himself as an advocate of good governance and transparency. “In speeches and in print” wrote Premium Times, he reels out his numerous business affiliations and accomplishments.” It is high time he addressed these seeming accusations. Lastly, Bola Ahmed Tinubu was the erstwhile Governor of Lagos State for 8 years from 1999 to 2007 in which virtually all socio economic and political indices revved up. Significantly, the internally generated revenue (IGR) was raised from N600 million per month to about N7 billion per month. Is Bola Ahmed Tinubu a saint? Definitely not! He, as a human being, has his own shortcomings or frailties. There are cases of controversial age disparity, confusing educational background and mysterious wealth that his opponents could not understand the source. In the next edition of this series, I would share a story along that line. However, at one point or the other, he towers above the other contenders in personally responding to these allegations or accusations, and in most cases, his handlers have been swift in responding to anyone who raises dust on these and other issues. In actual fact, some of the things being raked up in nailing Tinubu were as archaic and atavistic as events that occurred in 2003! Imagine the accusation of drug dealing against his (Tinubu’s) person which he himself, as it was breaking online, was unperturbed as he referred to it as an issue “as dead as dodo.” Funny indeed, but factual in content and context! What is dodo in Yoruba? It is sliced-fried plantain!!
Conclusively, as Nigeria inches closer to the February 2023 presidential elections, in the word of ace columnist, Simon Kolawole, the pendulum will swing in the direction of the outstanding aspirant, on any of the platforms that the people have sympathy and support for within the cranny and context of the country called Nigeria. The people (followers) are the deciders; albeit majority may not match their choices with the competence or character or credibility of the candidates. This is one irony of democracy! Follow me in the next edition of the series as we fixate on the people and platforms. Will the pendulum swing in relation to the platforms – parties? Thank you for your continuing interest in the column as you read, reflect and share with others whilst awaiting your genuine and germane feedback.
John Ekundayo, Ph.D. – Harvard-Certified Leadership Strategist, and also a Development Consultant, can be reached via 08155262360 (SMS only) and drjmoekundayo@hotmail.com
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