This piece is predicated on three key assumptions: firstly, that the presidential and National Assembly elections rescheduled for March 28 remains sacrosanct; secondly, that the orchestrated campaigns aimed at discrediting Prof. Attahiru Jega and INEC would totally cease, and that proxy battles to stymie the use of anti-rigging PVCs and smart card readers would stop forthwith; and thirdly, that, in conformity with recent judgements of the regular and appellate courts, the military, police, civil defence and security agencies would not be unilaterally and illegally deployed by President Goodluck Jonathan to reenact Ekitigate.
Abia: The most notable NASS election is that for the Abia North Senatorial District where former Governor Orji Uzor Kalu of the Progressive Peoples Alliance (PPA) and MAO Ohuabunwa of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) would slug it out. The eloquent Ohuabunwa – a former two-term member of the House of Representatives – is no pushover, but I fully expect OUK, a versatile and wizened political warhorse, to emerge victorious without breaking a sweat.
Akwa Ibom: Outgoing Governor Godswill Akpabio was a shoo-in for Akwa Ibom Central senate seat not too long ago. But the emergence of a strong opposition party in the form of APC seems to have provided the more populous Abak Division with a platform to vent their anger at his decision to renege on a 2011 consensual zoning policy. There’s no gainsaying the fact that Akpabio is walking a very tightrope, and given a transparent poll, I expect him to lose the battle for the Ikot Ekpene Senate seat.
Anambra: With the PDP yet to recover from a bruising battle for who the party’s candidate is, the contest for the Anambra Central Senatorial District is a straight fight between a former governor and incumbent Senator, Chris Ngige, and outgoing national chairman of All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Victor Umeh. I predict that Ngige will eke out a victory with the tightest of margins, as I expect that former Governor Peter Obi’s desire to extract his pound of flesh would whittle down Umeh’s support in one or two formerly APGA traditional strongholds.
Benue: Given the huge backlog of salary arrears owed workers and prolonged school closures, Governor Gabriel Suswam is in the same unsavoury position then-Anambra State Governor Mbadinuju had found himself in 2003. Mbadinuju was ultimately the only PDP governor who didn’t get a second term ticket and the only incumbent governor to lose in the governorship elections. Can Suswam forced into a defensive game plan upstage an attack-minded former PDP national chairman and incumbent senator, Barnabas Gemade?
Gemade certainly has an edge in this tight race.
Delta: The three-way race in the Delta Central Senate District between Ovie Omo-Agege of the Labour Party (LP), Ighoyota Amori of the PDP and APC’s Halims Agoda has all the trappings of an epic battle. Omo-Agege is a former Secretary to the State Government (SSG) in the James Ibori administration. Amori is the current political adviser to Governor Emmanuel Uduaghan. Agoda is a two-term member of the House of Representatives. Given Agoda’s widely acknowledged performance inn the Lower Chamber, and his endorsement by the main faction of the influential Urhobo Progressives Union (UPU), I expect him to carry the day at the end of proceedings.
Niger: The ambition of the state’s ‘Chief Servant’ and outgoing governor, Babangida Aliyu, to transmute from the Minna Government House to the Senate seems to be trapped in political quicksands. With the ringing clamour for “chanji” (change) and “Sai Buhari,” the recent declaration of APC’s David Umaru as the real winner of the by-election for a vacant senate seat and the defection of his deputy, the ‘Chief Servant’ must have realised by now that the game is up for him and the PDP.
Presidential: To say that incumbent President Goodluck Jonathan has not achieved anything is to be economical with the truth. Democracy has certainly taken deep roots under his administration and he has made some impression in the areas of road and rail development. Truth is that Jonathan has tried his best but his best just isn’t good enough for a nation that is in a hurry to develop.
Corruption still remains a major threat and given the way he has been desperately throwing money around to cobble a supposedly winning coalition of traditional rulers, religious leaders, elder statesmen, leaders of thought, repentant militants and ethnic militias, only an inane optimist or sycophant of the worst type can still expect Jonathan to prosecute a meaningful war against corruption if he’s reelected.
Rightly or wrongly, Jonathan has been largely written off as ‘weak,’ ‘clueless’ and ‘leader of a corrupt administration’ by the international community. If he remains in power, this nation would lose respect at international fora. Such an outcome would be highly inimical to our national interests, such as seeking to be one of the two African permanent members in an expanded UN Security Council.
What Nigerians now desire is a leader who knows how to use power to rekindle hope, revamp the ailing the economy, shore up the value of the naira, diversify the economic base and make the land safer and more secured.
Nearly one whole year after they were abducted, we are nowhere nearer to rescuing the over-200 abducted Chibok school girls! Compare Jonathan’s pedestrian reactions with that of Buhari who, as military head of state, moved very quickly to snuff out the Maitasine uprising in the North; and who, as GOC of the Jos-based army division, pursued rogue militants that were terrorizing swathes of the Northeast all the way into Chad in a lightning military operation.
The nation has developed very dangerous fissures along religious, political, ethnic, regional and class lines under the Jonathan administration. In fact, never has the nation being so divided. We urgently need a unifier to heal the gaping and hemorrhaging wounds and distill a national consensus – a trusted charismatic leader that would elicit loyal followership.
Every kind of including a death wish – have been hurled at Buhari by propagandists and attack dogs of the PDP Presidential Campaign Organization (PDPPCO) and their sympathizers but the man has remained as indestructible as the Beetle car of yore. We seriously need the wisdom of our ancients to extricate ourselves from the blind alley of inconsistencies and disequilibrium that youthful exuberance has boxed us into. Aha! Judging by their antecedents and decorum, who between Patience Jonathan and Aisha Buhari would you rather have as First Lady in a new world order?
Make no mistake about it, March 28 would decide Nigeria’s future. Are you more or less confident today about your future and that of your children? As the highly loquacious media director of the PDPPCO, Femi Fani-Kayode, once bellowed in a rare moment of inspiration: “(Jonathan) is the problem we have in our country today and until…he is voted out of power, nothing will change and Nigeria will continue to go from bad to worse.”
May you put such privileged insider information to good use by wisely using your vote to deliver our country from destruction and shame.
SUN
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