I am not under-rating Nigerian politicians but it is certainly not incorrect to assume that many of them, especially those that have been thrown up by the flawed political and warped electoral systems to occupy various positions since May 29, 1999, are profoundly deficient in strategic thinking. In essence, they are neither proactive nor visionary. Like the ill-equipped and ill-motivated Nigeria Police Force (NPF) and other security agencies, many Nigerian politicians react belatedly to urgent issues of national importance rather that develop and apply sustainable preventive measures in-line with international best practices, to immediately avert possible catastrophic consequences.
This is why in spite of the fact that the current democratic dispensation in Nigeria will clock 20 years next year, which will also coincide with another round of crucial general elections, practice of democracy is yet to grow while efforts to reform the electoral process are being continuously frustrated by corrupt, selfish and unpatriotic political mercenaries who do not want Nigeria to move forward. Compared with others, former Governor of Lagos State and national leader of the governing All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, seems to stand out from the crowd of unscrupulous Nigerian politicians, in several respects.
A recent credible report in Daily Independent that he rejected appeal to him by the party to lead national campaign of President Muhammadu Buhari for the forthcoming presidential election throughout the country was quite instructive. Many Nigerians with discerning minds that could remember how the Jagaban of Borgu was reportedly used and later abandoned after committing substantial human and pecuniary resources to the president’s election victory in 2015, would definitely not be surprised that this time around, he declined to lead Buhari’s national campaign. However, his repeated assurances to do everything within the ambit of the law, to ensure re-election of the president, are noteworthy.
There is age-long proverb that is highly cherished by wise men and women globally.
It says once bitten, twice shy. Having been bitten once in 2015 by the all-powerful, faceless political cabal in Aso Rock Villa, the 66-year-old indomitable political strategist of inestimable value had wisely chosen to avert possible risk of being bitten again in 2019. I am sure, as an uncommon visionary political leader, he must have reasoned far ahead of his contemporaries that rather than succumb to appeal to lead the president’s national campaign, it would be better for him to ensure all is well in his politically strategic South-West region ahead of the 2019 elections. As an experienced politician that had at various times emerged victorious in stiff electoral battles, Tinubu was wise to have appreciated the fact that it is a fool that goes to sleep while something is fiercely burning on top of his roof.
When fire burns the mother and her baby, the immediate and wisest action to take is for her to take care of herself before attending to her child. This time around, having learnt from the ugly past (2015), Tinubu has decided that even though he would work for Buhari’s victory in 2019, it would be more politically expedient for him to fully concentrate on the South-West where, if care is not taken, some of the states could be lost to the opposition in 2019 in view of the raging political crisis in Ogun State, as well as the unpredictability of outcome of governorship elections in Lagos State and Oyo State. Although Lagos is the only state in South-West region that has remained under firm control of Tinubu since 1999, some political observers say the manner Governor Akinwunmi Ambode was denied second term, thereby resulting in emergence of Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu as Lagos APC governorship candidate, is still generating mixed reactions among supporters of the governing party in the Centre of Excellence. The fact that Mr Jimi Agbaje is back in the race for the third time as governorship candidate of the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Lagos, according to observers, is clear indication that the pharmacist-turned-politician should not be under-rated by Lagos APC.
There is no doubt Tinubu is having sleepless nights ahead of 2019. His hands are full, especially judging by the urgent need for him to get unalloyed support of governors in South- West to ensure all the states remain in the safe kitty of APC. Unfortunately, it does not seem to be a cordial political relationship between him and Governors Oluwarotimi Akeredolu of Ondo State, Kayode Fayemi of Ekiti State and Ibikunle Amosun of Ogun State. He definitely has no problem with Governors Abiola Ajimobi of Oyo State, Akinwunmi Ambode of Lagos State and Gboyega Oyetola of Osun State. Although in 2019, there will be no governorship elections in Ondo, Ekiti and Osun but Tinubu still requires unflinching moral and strategic support of Akeredolu, Fayemi and Oyetola to ensure all-round victories in Lagos, Oyo and Ogun since all the six South-West states are currently under the control of APC.
It is saddening that of all the three South- West states governorship elections would hold in 2019, Ogun could aptly be described as the agonising tsetse fly dangerously seated on the scrotum of APC. The lingering crisis that erupted following the controversial parallel primary elections could, if care is not taken, lead to serious political crisis or even make APC lose the relatively peaceful state in 2019. Unfortunately, relations between Tinubu and Governor Ibikunle Amosun are not cordial. Same applies to relations between former Ogun State Governor and APC chieftain, Aremo Olusegun Osoba and Amosun, due to protracted irreconcilable political differences that also appear to be tearing the governing party apart in Ogun. Amosun insists his preferred candidate from Yewaland, Adekunle Akinlade, should succeed him next year.
However, national leadership of the party said Dapo Abiodun is their governorship candidate although Amosun who is leader of APC in Ogun, insists he would not vote for Abiodun. Already, Akinlade, along with some of Amosun’s loyalists, have defected to other parties. This is why Tinubu and other leaders in South-West should act swiftly to end Ogun crisis. The political harakiri festering in Ogun and Imo where, like Amosun, Governor Rochas Okorocha insists his embattled son-in-law, Uche Nwosu, should succeed him in 2019, could rob APC of the strategic South- West and South-East states in the forthcoming governorship elections.
Zamfara is another state APC can lose in 2019. Okorocha’s preferred candidate and some of the loyalists of the governor have since defected to other parties. In spite of the political storms currently threatening the peace in Ogun and Imo, Amosun and Okorocha insists though they would not vote for APC in their states but they would work for Buhari’s re-election. This is absurd! Do they think APC supporters in Ogun and Imo are fools? If they would not vote for APC, who will they mobilise to vote for Buhari in Ogun and Imo? Amosun and Okorocha are merely deceiving the president and preparing fertile ground for his landslide defeat in Ogun and Imo.
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