Historically, in the build up to the national elections – as in this case, a couple of months to go – you would see an upsurge in consumer spending power, and in turn, a visible increase in aggregate consumer demand. Politicians would typically ‘release’ their election war-chests about now, leading to increased raw cash injection into the market. This, combined with the usual seasonality impact of the festive period on businesses, would imply that businesses enjoy a buoyant end-of-year business performance. Whether this expectation is being met in this 2018/19 cycle of aforementioned consumer spending drivers is up in the air. We will have to wait till early 2019 when the results of this last quarter of 2018 are unveiled to make deductions.
My intuition however is that a significant population of businesses is still going through a challenging time, and the growth numbers have slowed down. This should not be entirely surprising given the softening economic environment, as depicted not least by the reducing GDP growth rates. In fact, there is some nervousness about 2019. There have been reports of a possible return to economic recession, fuelled by a recent (and truly material) decline in global oil pricing from the high $80’s only as recently as October, to the neighbourhood of $60 recently, so much so, there is some emerging pressure on government to revise the $60 oil price benchmark used for the 2019 budget, to allow for a wiggle room should the current price trends continue.
The point is – we are not out of the woods and even if you are the very optimistic or bullish type, there is enough sign to warn you to temper your optimism with caution. For those businesses who have had a difficult 2018 and who may have some strong anxiety about 2019, my word is – do not give up the ghost. Just like life, businesses have cycles. I do not know of any sector that hasn’t had a share of the economic shocks and storms that are prevalent globally, and by extension, in our non-insular world – Nigeria. You must hang in there and demonstrate an innate energy to ride the storm. In such challenging economic and business climes, my perspective is that every leader must consider the following:
(1) Have self-belief: A leader must be resolute in their belief in themselves and by extension their team, to deliver great results even in difficult times. As it is said, “whether you think you can or you think you can’t, you are usually right.” Though I was never Trump’s fan going into the last USA general elections, one thing you could not take from the man was his tenacity – an amazing quantum of self-belief. Throughout the campaign, he never allowed criticism to knock his confidence. He talked winning, he believed it (even against all odds), he achieved it. I also recall my time as a young manager at Haco, the cosmetics division of a then giant conglomerate – John holt Limited. We had some international cosmetics brands like Panache, Lentheric, Nivea, etc, that were not selling well at some point purportedly due to their premium pricing. Our then CEO, Mr Colin Field then hired a Mrs Bimbo Fisayo, one of the most dynamic sales ladies I have come across in my career. What struck me most about was her resolve not to be bogged by all the “files” and “drifts” in the company about the pricing as a barrier. Her self-belie was of a different class. Guess what? – she completely turned that business around. You must have a winning mentality, fuelled by the power of self-belief.
(2) Focus on what you can change: Leaders must have the propensity to develop a “thick skin” around the things that are outside their control, while keeping in scope the things they must change to move their organisation forward. A young History graduate would say: “if only I graduated as a banker, I would have had multiple job options.” It’s time we learnt to accept ourselves, or better still, celebrate ourselves. Nollywood’s Aki and Paw Paw are not the tallest Nigerians you would meet – are they? See what wealth and fame they have been able to access by leveraging their geniuses, instead of crying about their lack of heights. I recall my days as a young manager at Coca-Cola. There were times that if my sales numbers were not good, I would be making excuses about the weather – afterall, “everyone should know that if it is too rainy, you’re not likely to sell many cold beverages”, I thought. I would spend long hours preparing presentations correlating sales and recorded weather temperatures. These happened a few times until one of my bosses visiting from our global head office warned me never to discuss the impact of weather on my sales performance again. He said: “can you decide when to have rain and when not to? Did we not have rains in same months of last year – so what has changed?”; he would close by saying “just focus on what you can affect, and that’s what I am interested in co-creating solutions with you for.” As I grew in leadership, I couldn’t agree more with him.
(3) Accept accountability: As a leader, accountability must lie with you. It seems that we, human beings, generally thrive on the blame game. Even when we put the mirror in front of us, we see selectively, in that we never see our ugly side. We always look beautiful in the mirror – no weaknesses, we are the perfect being. Nonsense. Let’s get it right, when you lead a team, you are the chief custodian of all the assets and liabilities of the output of that team. You can’t choose and pick like some immature leaders do– pulling the credit to themselves and pushing the blame to their subordinates. In a tough business time, you would inspire your team, if you consistently demonstrate that you are not shy to accept responsibility for the lack of performance of the team. Except for a few immature football managers, what you would typically see football managers do is to publicly acknowledge the efforts of their team, even when they lose. They may then go and beat them up in the dressing room. The point is, as a leader, instead of complaining about everything and everyone in a tough performance period, you must have the broad chest to soak it all in. The truth is when the chips are down, you must stand up and be counted. I will continue with this subject next week.
Have a pleasant week.
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