If the year 1999 still resonates with you, it’s probably your birth year or you are a fan of the late rock star Prince. Or maybe you are one of the billions of people around the world who fretted over the imminent end of the world at the turn of the millennium.
Prince encapsulated that anxiety a whole 17 years in advance in the hit song “1999.” In his inimitable falsetto, he sang: “Say, say two thousand zero zero party over, oops, out of time.
So tonight I’m gonna party like it’s nineteen ninety-nine.”
Yes, there were a number of apocalyptic prophecies about 1999. But what caused serious concern was that at the stroke of midnight on December 31, computers would confuse the last “00” in 2000 with those of 1900. That would make them go bonkers and cause modern life to crash.
Well, we are about 20 years past the feared Armageddon. So, we should all be partying like it’s 2020, not for fear of 2021, but with hopefulness of good things to come.
That’s the global angle, anyway. For Nigeria, 1999 was also a momentous year for an opposite reason. After about 33 years of military rule — interrupted only by five years of electoral governance — Nigeria finally made the transition into a democracy.
So, people truly partied “like it’s 1999,” not in anticipation of the end of time but out of great expectation for 2000. The phrase “democratic dividend” gained much currency in everyday chatter and in the press.
After years of harrowing military rule that brought the country to the brink of a second civil war, Nigerians had much expectation from democracy. It was expected to robustly transform the economy and put an end to poverty and suffering.
But that was not to be. In fact, the expectation of instant dividends was unrealizable. Democracy per se does not bring prosperity. It loosens the shackles and unleashes the entrepreneurial energies that could propel in that direction. But the actual outcome depends on many factors.
For one thing, the dividends are rarely ever instantaneous. Beyond that, is the quality of the democracy. Is the government vacuous or competent? Is it parochial or broad-minded and forward-looking? Does it retain much of the impunity of military rule or abide by the rule of law? Is corruption still endemic or is there a higher level of civic-virtue? What is more important for retention and advancement: connections or competence? What is rewarded, sycophancy or performance?
If the answer is not consistently the latter case, then democracy is merely the shedding of military dictatorship. That by itself is a good thing, but it’s not enough for economic advancement.
Civil unrest and insurgencies are another impediment to economic advancement. For example, Boko Haram has set the North-East back by decades.
Natural disasters too can be serious liabilities. Mercifully, Nigeria doesn’t experience the most damning among them, such as earthquakes, hurricanes, tsunamis, and tornadoes. Our northmost parts experience draughts, but they have not been as problematic for the country as they have been in the Sahel and Ethiopia.
The vagaries of commodity trade are another factor of economic advancement. Countries such as Nigeria that rely almost exclusively on one commodity in international trade are especially susceptible. That’s why the collapse of oil prices in 2014 inevitably set the Nigerian economy into a tailspin.
Much the same happened in the mid-1980s, prompting Gen. Ibrahim Babangida (retd) to implement economic restructuring, which inflicted about as much hardship on Nigerians as the recent downturn.
Back to the present, it’s been about 20 years now since the transition to democratic rule and about six years since the collapse of oil prices. After reaching as high as $112 per barrel, prices fell as low as $43 in 2016. They have since rebounded, with OPEC currently listing the Bonny light crude at about $68 per barrel.
It’s not anywhere close to the peak, but it’s a significant rebound. And the overall trajectory of the Nigerian economy is upward.
Should Nigerians now expect the democratic dividends? Will Nigerians party like it’s 2020 — and thereafter?
New Year wishes
To the Nigerian masses, who are still hoping for the democratic dividends, my wishes are that 2020 brings notable relief. I also wish you the light to see your way clearly whenever someone canvases for your votes or deploys you to visit mayhem on campaigns and balloting.
To public officials, my wishes are for the wisdom and compassion to do the right thing for the people. To begin with, let the ballot box determine whether the people want you to lead them. If you win an election fraudulently, then by definition, you are a fraud. If the voters reject you, there has to be another way to make an honest living.
Also, there is enough evidence of the perils of corruption. My wishes are that you all have the wisdom to conclude that it is not worth it in the end. Even if you think it is worth it, there is the sting of conscience to deal with. For every misuse or outright theft of funds, there are Nigerians out there literally dying from hunger.
To President Muhammadu Buhari, my New Year wishes are that you begin to think through your policies in the three years left on your tenure. Sure, you don’t want to become another President Umaru Musa Yar’Ardua, who was reputedly Baba Go-Slow. But then it took you about six months just to appoint ministers to your first cabinet. It’s definitely as important to deliberate deeply before embarking on policies that have national ramifications. Come to think of it, because you are the president, everything you do or say have national ramifications.
I am tempted to go into specifics, but the spirit of the New Year would frown on dredging or stirring up anything. I am sure you have a list —real or mental—of all the policies you’ve undertaken that have stirred national outrage.
My last New Year wishes are to my colleagues in academia. They are wishes for the strength of character to desist from quid pro quo, that is, the grades-for-gratifications variety. As you well know by now, it is an impeachable offence that does no one any good.
Above all, I wish you— and all my readers —a Happy New Year!
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