“But far more numerous was(is) the herd of such, who think too little and who talk too much.” John Dryden, 1631-1700. (VANGUARD BOOK OF QUOTATIONS, VBQ, p 245).
“Fed Govt to cut 2016 Budget; increase Debt ration”—Minister of Finance. Emeka Anaeto, Economy Editor, VANGUARD, June 10, 2016.
In the report, Nigerians learnt that about N900bn will be reduced from the capital budget for 2016. There was no mention of how much reduction will be made in the recurrent expenditure. A few days earlier, the Vice-President, flanked by Governors Ajimobi of Oyo, Aregbesola of Osun, and El-Rufai of Kaduna States had launched the School Meal Project from which 5.5 million primary school kids are to benefit in the first phase. It was among a lot of ill-conceived and badly conceptualized promises made by the President as the candidate of the All Progressives Congress, APC, in the last election. It was not the only one. On the same June 9, 2016 when the Minister for Finance, bowing to the dictates of economic reality, was announcing the fifteen(15%) reduction, the VP was again launching another project – the recruitment of 500,000 teachers by the Federal government.
In a statement released by Mr Laolu Akande, Senior Special Assistant to the VP, “besides their monthly take home pay estimated at about N23,000 per month, the selected 500,000 graduates will also get computer devices…”. Given the situation in the oil producing areas of the country, as well as the shortfall in taxes collected for 2016 so far, it is likely that the N900bn reduction in capital appropriation will not be the last cut this year. Furthermore, the revenue from crude oil exports for the next two months, July and August, are already well-known to government, as well as those who make it their business. With exports less than 1.2 million per day, even at US$50 per barrel, another drastic revenue decline is easily predictable. If ever there is a government which had been following the Biblical injunction of the right hand not knowing what the left hand is doing, this is it. The VP and the Finance Minister apparently work for different governments.
The issue of 500.000 proposed teachers will be the major focus of attention in this series because it demonstrates the risks President Buhari is running with the people who surround him and, who having encouraged him to make ill-considered campaign promises, are now desperate to go ahead in the attempt to fulfill promises which should never have been made in the first place. Meal project first. Launched on Thursday, with only three APC Governors present, the project, as conceived, was supposed to be financed sixty per cent by the Abuja with forty per cent counterpart funding by the states – including PDP states whose party never made the promise.
To begin with, it is certain that nobody in the APC political organization or government can produce a written statement or a taped recording of Buhari telling Nigerians that the burden of financing the promise would be shared between Abuja and the states. The electorate had every right to assume that Buhari and his advisers (if he had any) should have done their home work before making the promise.
At the very least, the voters should have been told how much the project would cost. No estimates were provided even at the launching. Buhari is now embarking on a project whose cost estimates are either unknown or shrouded in secrecy by the Federal Government. Obviously, nobody in that government has a calculator or knows when to use one. Permit me to help them out. At a very modest one hundred (N100) per child, the project will cost N550 million per day. In a month of twenty days, the bill will total up to N11 billion and in a year of nine months, at least N100 billion will be required to fund it. One looks in vain for the provision in this year’s budget for funding the remaining seven months of this year.
Not surprisingly, virtually all the states have disclaimed the project. Even those who attended the launching, like Ajimobi, have promised to implement the project partially – inevitably setting in motion a groundswell of opposition from parents and kids who are left out of the project. Most PDP states have simply thrown the hot potato back to the President. Nobody will, or should ask them any questions if by December all the kids nationwide are not being fed free food. The promise was made by Buhari and he is the one obligated to redeem it.
Unfortunately, any “so-called economist” (to use Buhari’s dismissive term), knows that the project as designed was seriously defective. It will create more problems than it would solve. For a start they have not even published the list of the 18 states which would be the first beneficiaries of this give-away programme. Litigation would halt the project on its tracks once the list is published. I will certainly go to court to stop it if Lagos State is left out.
I expect others whose states are excluded to do the same. What sort of a father is that who has thirty-six starving children would bring food to the table and tell eighteen to eat and the rest to watch and wait? For what reason? With over 24 million primary school kids nationwide, it beats the imagination how the President and the APC could imagine that they could select 5.5 million from only 18 states as beneficiaries of the scheme. It is simply unfair to the rest and there is absolutely no way that the selection will not be politicized and corrupted.
Whatever happened to the principle of equal treatment under the law in a democracy? If the Federal government cannot feed all the kids, then the project should be shelved or cancelled outright. Meanwhile, is it the same Federal government which cannot pay salaries and entitlements amounting to N167 billion which now wants to add N11 billion per month to its burden by offering free food? We have heard people in this government talking.
But, have they thought before talking? Each passing day, the history of Buhari’s legacy is being written. With projects such as this, I fear for the President. Lastly, one of the Governors flanking the VP claims to be feeding 250,000 children, at an estimated N500 million a month from a monthly allocation of less then N20 million from Abuja. Osinbajo should ask the Governor how he is performing the magic; especially since his public servants are on half salary and still owed four months arrears… That is bad enough. The 500,000 teacher misadventure is worse.
To engage 500.000 teachers and pay them N23,000 basic salary per month alone calls for additional N11.5 billion per month or N138 billion per annum. In April, the Federal government’s share of revenue came to approximately N140 billion, against an existing monthly wage bill of N167 billion. To that deficit the dreamers in Aso Rock want to add N22 billion per month on two projects alone. A house built on sand is on firmer ground than these projects – which will not work. Mark my words. By December, Lai Mohammed and Femi Adesina will be called upon to explain why they failed. They should start writing their excuses now – or warn the President that he courts disaster with these projects.
VANGUARD
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