I watched with keen interest the vice presidential candidates’ debate organised ahead of the forthcoming elections in Nigeria. Obviously, the current government, to be candid, has not performed to the level of my initial expectations when it came into office. This is not to say they have done nothing worthy of commendation.
At least, some of our rail lines are working again. There are many other initiatives such as the N-Power programme and soft loan programmes as well as the conscientious efforts to develop other infrastructure projects to which the government deserves some credit. If anything, the level of profligacy of the last government has been curtailed to a great extent.
However, as many would agree, the process of change is moving at a snail pace and while the good intentions of current actors cannot be denied, the speed we are running at is way too slow for (i) where Nigeria currently stands and where we want to be (ii) the rate of expansion of our burgeoning population now forecast to exceed 250 million by 2030 and (iii) the speed at which the rest of the world is moving.
I am not a particularly strong supporter of some of the government’s policies including those on infrastructure. I ask myself if the government can really bankroll the infrastructural needs of Nigeria by taking on various loans from international financial institutions. The Vice President, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, recently said Nigeria needed about $1tn to modernise its energy infrastructure alone. The country is estimated to require $450tn to execute on the National Integrated Infrastructure Master Plan. In my estimations, there is only so much government can do and given the requirements, Nigeria needs to be moving with urgency.
I am aware some measures have been taken to create certain structures through the Nigeria Infrastructure Fund and the resuscitation of the Infrastructure Bank. But these measures are not enough. If we are looking to attract capital, we need to create the right legal framework and other measures necessary to guarantee attractive returns on investment. However what we truly need is a holistic infrastructure development strategy with creative policies to limit the country’s dependence on foreign capital to finance infrastructure needs. This is a long-term plan which cannot be done overnight.
Our policies on agriculture and development of local industries are not robust enough. Our agricultural policies are at best disjointed and we lack the necessary support sectors such as steel and petrochemical industries, to mention a few, which are the essential requirements to drive a modern industrialised economy. It is only when the essential industries are in place, then the resulting multiplier effects could lead to the creation of an even larger service-driven economy. However, this is a matter for another day.
There is a glaring absence, at this time, of any holistic, strategic and interconnected national development plan accounting for all elements of monetary, fiscal, trade, foreign exchange, industrial, and capital formation and labour policies. Not forgetting the legal, regulatory, constitutional and institutional frameworks necessary to achieve our aspirations. If those policies exist today in some forms– maybe through the national industrial revolution plan–then execution is lacking. There is need for joint concerted effort across all sectors, government levels and the private sector.
Why was I so keen on the debate? I was interested in knowing if there is truly an alternative in this election cycle. While I am mindful that perfection might just be a pipe dream or a mirage, it is important to at least assess and critically analyse our options albeit from the limited scope of a time-bound debate. Given my doubts on what difference the Peoples Democratic Party presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar can make as President, I was more interested in knowing what his running mate, Peter Obi, could offer. I heard the many of numbers and statistics when he spoke. However, beyond the numbers, which should be expected ahead of such a debate, I felt the comments shared were light on details and short of any concrete plan to make a change. It sounded all too familiar – back to 2015 again – the numbers game. The arguments, I felt, were somewhat peripheral and lacked depth.
Further, I thought the comments on fuel subsidy was being in some ways economical with the truth and maybe playing to the gallery. It is true a more efficient system will provide additional savings but that distracts from the substance of the matter. Can Nigerians really bear a situation where subsidies are expunged? Let’s be factual. Our refineries are at present not working. Other than the Dangote refinery in construction, I doubt if any government can solve the fuel subsidy problem in the next four years with a significant fall in international oil prices. Nigeria, today, cannot but import petrol and there is a set international price. Are Nigerians ready to pay that price? I am not sure. The multiplier effects via cost push inflation on all sectors of the economy and might be too much to bear.
While I await the presidential debate –hoping it would be a fruitful exercise, I think the Atiku/Obi ticket appears less appealing. Although, I also have doubts if Buhari/Osinbajo team can move faster, avoid policy mistakes and somersaults, develop holistic policies and quite frankly show more religious tolerance and compassion on sensitive national issues. Here lies the dilemma. Can this government deliver if returned to power? I felt Osinbajo performed well in describing what the government has done so far but no matter how good it might be, it still falls short of what the populace expect in terms of economic development and the dividends of democracy.
Yet, there may be credible alternative if parties like The Young Progressive Party can align with other parties like the Alliance for New Nigeria. The YPP’s vice presidential candidate performed reasonably in my observation. At least she was frank on the need to know the true state of government affairs regarding the removal of fuel subsidies—a sensible conclusion I imagine. I believe the party has a well-rounded presidential candidate in Prof. Kingsley Moghalu. I share similar view on other charismatic presidential candidates such as Fela Durotoye and Oby Ezekwesili. My concern is I do not think one man or woman can change Nigeria. You need partners at all levels of government – the legislature, states and dare I say the local government. One can have the best of goals but without a supporting team of likeminded individuals, they become difficult to achieve.
This is why it would have been great if these patriotic Nigerians join forces to form a single platform with strong candidates across all the arms of government. Only one person can be president but one person cannot do the job. If we are truly seeking the transformation of our nation, then any position of service (state or federal) is not too small. Would it not be more thinkable to have the legislative arm of government and state governments filled with focused individuals who can influence decisions and actions at all levels than to have a president only in name?
These are the pertinent issues that must be considered as 2019 elections approach. Though 2019 might be too late to make a difference, 2023 is just four years away. We should move away really, from knee-jerk reactions and become more strategic. Now is the time to start thinking about 2023 and making strategic plans. Now is the time to start planning to have strong representations in future elections.
Oguntade is a UK-based financial analyst and political commentator
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