“Wisely and slow; they stumble that run fast.” William Shakespeare, 1564-1616
Hit the ground running was the advice given by most of our erudite young columnists as soon as Tinubu was declared winner of the February Presidential Election.
He started so slowly that he was openly insulted by the end of his second year. Now, much older, it is amusing to read people urging him to bolt. Apart from the first few policy decisions, quickly made, and which have backfired, Tinubu has returned to his “go slow” approach. Palliatives have been handed over to the National Economic Council, NEC, a large committee not known to be in a hurry.
The circumstances surrounding the decisions to be made today are totally different from those in 1999. The Lagos State he inherited was, by far, the richest and best-governed state in Nigeria.
The debts accumulated were manageable. The experienced Civil Service and old men of Afenifere helped to shield him from many monumental errors – until he could get a grip on leadership.
By contrast, he is the new helmsman of a country which is a laughing stock among nations, the poorest nation, with a battered and totally corrupted Civil Service and sitting on unsustainable debt stock. Lagos State had no emergency situation to manage in 1999; Nigeria has several emergencies threatening her existence in 2023. Asking Tinubu, who has never had any experience at the Federal level, to “hit the ground running”, was an unfair piece of advice ever given to him.
Unfortunately, he actually accepted that counsel and tossed off one ill-considered after another. He must be shocked by the repercussions. The question his closest advisers must be asking is: what went wrong?
FG WAS ILL-PREPARED FOR THE CONSEQUENCES
“Never rush on without looking around first.”
Aleksander Solzhenitsyn, 1918-2003.
The Federal Government of any country is a complex organisation. That is why, in most nations, seldom is leadership entrusted to someone who has not served in at least one capacity at the centre. Few major decisions are simple and they affect people differently.
Those familiar with the system know instinctively that a lot of preparation is required to make a radical policy change work without serious problems. Fuel subsidy removal and attempt to unify exchange rates have been on the national agenda for decades. It was inevitable for government to address them; because they were distorting the economy and unsustainable.
However, just as in Medicine, doctors have to remove a life-threatening tumour, they also have to exercise diligent care. Otherwise, the operation might be technically successful; but the patient might die.
The FG has stumbled after the two major policy decisions because Nigerians are literally bleeding to death. Prices of several things – notably, food, transport, education, health services — have skyrocketed; others, like rent, will soon follow. Meanwhile, salaries and wages remain the same.
Millions of young families, with kids still in school, face a bleak future in the short term – as early as next school year. One single mother, currently struggling to send three children to school (two primary and one university), took a look at the school fees for next year and exclaimed in tears. “I can’t send even one, not to talk of three, back to school next year”. She spoke for millions who are still reeling in shock.
I am giving Tinubu the benefit of doubt. That is why the assumption is made here that the disasters which have befallen Nigerians, and others on the way, were unintended consequences of the policies he has announced so hastily.
FOCUS ON FOOD ONCE AGAIN
“Farming can be mighty easy if it is only done with pencil and paper and in the comfort of an office.” US President/Farmer
Among other hastily announced measures were Executive orders to release food and fertilisers from FG’s silos. Given what we know about Tinubu’s life history, he knows very little about farming, food production, storage, preservation and distribution. He had no idea how much food and what sort of food is in the FG’s silos; and how many silos the government operates. From information available to me, Buhari had concessioned about 30 silos for ten years – leaving only 13 silos with different food items – rice, corn, sorghum, wheat, beans.
Furthermore, foods in silos are not bagged. Only foods in warehouses and stores are bagged. Foods in silos cannot be distributed unless they are first bagged; that would mean obtaining 50kg, 20kg, 10kg, and 5kg bags. Certainly, those bags were not available on the day the Executive order was issued; and it will require a few weeks to get them ready.
Transporting 250,000 tonnes of grain would require thousands of trucks – which were obviously not conveniently waiting to load and go. The transporters have to be paid – and, it is most unlikely that anybody in government knows how much the FG will eventually pay for distribution.
There are so many more issues – major and minor – which must be sorted out before the expected recipients of the food from silos can be received. Tinubu took none of these into consideration before announcing the measure. But, the critical questions regarding the food to be distributed are: how much food is there? How many people can it feed? For how long?
The answers to those questions can be long or short. On account of space, permit me to answer all the questions by summarising a lot of details. What is available in all the silos now will feed two million Nigerians for approximately a month; and everything will be exhausted.
Obviously, that cannot be a national food policy. The announcement might fit into the “hit the ground running” image. But, what we are seeing is a President stumbling around, making statements which have to be explained or withdrawn for further review.
The truth is, there is nothing that Tinubu or any other person can do, in the next 18 months which will avert serious suffering by Nigerians.
END
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