On Saturday, September 22, 2018, the political consciousness of the nation shifted to the gubernatorial election that was conducted in Osun, a State touted as the bedrock of the Yoruba race. On that day, the significance of Ile-Ife amongst other Yoruba towns and the iconic status of the Osun river in Yoruba folklore, were matters relegated to the background as political juggernauts converged on the South-West state to embark on their latest battle for superiority.
Leading the charge for the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) was Gboyega Isiaka Oyetola, who was, until recently, chief of staff to Rauf Aregbesola, the current governor of Osun State. His closest opponent in the election was Senator Ademola Adeleke, the famous dancing politician of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), who eased into the senatorial seat of his late elder brother, Isiaka Adeleke, when bye-elections were conducted after the unfortunate demise of the elder Adeleke last year. However, it was PDP’s Adeleke that came out tops on Saturday, when the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announced a total of 254,698 votes for him, in contrast to Oyetola’s total of 256,345.
The little margin between Adeleke and Oyetola made no difference for either of them, as INEC then declared the election inconclusive because the difference in votes between the two candidates – 353 votes – was lower than the total number of votes cancelled. A total of 3,498 votes were cancelled in seven polling units across several local governments. INEC has now set a date for re-run elections between APC’s Oyetola and PDP’s Adeleke in the four affected council areas for tomorrow, September 27, 2018. The re-run will be the stage for the real election, as the APC and PDP candidates were always the favourites to clinch the poll.
Quite unsurprisingly, the PDP has launched a series of attacks on the ruling APC and INEC officials, claiming that there was connivance between the two, which led to the declaration of the results as inconclusive. Also, reminiscent of the Ekiti gubernatorial elections earlier in the year, there were claims of vote buying on both the PDP and APC sides, this time allegedly taking place in the cover of dark, on the night before the election. Although commentators and analysts may know that the two leading political parties in the country are two sides of the same coin when it comes down to actual politicking, the two have always carried on in the press like bitter rivals with different tactics and agenda. This is why the back-and-forth between the two parties this time should be given less attention than preparations for the outcome tomorrow.
Some have said that the opposition would have benefitted a great deal from the closing of ranks against the ruling party in the run up to the election in Osun. Most times, there is zero opportunity for cooperation, as it is the lack of management and space for competing egos that give rise to many of these opposition parties in the first place…
There are many factors that could still influence the results at this point. As it has been the case in elections in Nigeria for so long, there was the rash of defections into and out of APC and PDP in the run up to the elections. Significantly on the APC side, Alhaji Kazeem Adio, the secretary to the state government (SSG) in Aregebesola’s camp, had resigned to join the African Democratic Congress (ADC), after it became apparent that he would not enjoy the endorsement of his boss or the ruling party for the Osun top job. He later became the frontrunner for the ADC in last Saturday’s election, where he recorded a total vote of 7,681.
Concentrating purely on numbers, one would assume that Adio’s following may have added a sizable number of votes to Oyetola’s tally, even without the ADC platform. This is why his defection is significant. Other factors that may have influenced the voting was Yusuf Lasun’s grievance with the outcome of the APC primaries, where he felt shortchanged, and Iyiola Omisore’s candidacy under the Social Democratic Party (SDP), which further stripped the two leading candidates of a precious 128,049 votes that he polled on Saturday. The position of Omisore, Lasun and Adio, going forward, may become vital in influencing votes during the re-run.
Some have said that the opposition would have benefitted a great deal from the closing of ranks against the ruling party in the run up to the election in Osun. Most times, there is zero opportunity for cooperation, as it is the lack of management and space for competing egos that give rise to many of these opposition parties in the first place, as aggrieved party members find solace elsewhere. Just as there was contention for the top job in APC, there was even sharper contention for the ticket in the PDP, where Adeleke edged out Dr. Akin Ogunbiyi, with a slim margin of only seven votes in the primaries.
It is curious to see if Adeleke’s streak of narrow margins will continue, eventually ushering him into the Osun State government house after the re-run. If for nothing else, the slim margins speak to Adeleke’s testy candidacy. It suggests that elements within his party and the wider Osun are unsure about his suitability for office, especially in the light of doubts raised about the authenticity of his school certificate, his refusal to attend any of the debates leading to the election and his unusual social manners and habits that have made him more famous than any policy position or intellectual angle he has ever championed as a private individual or a senator.
…it is an altogether positive outcome that the activities of the ‘lesser opposition’, viable or not, had an impact on the result of the election. It may signal the beginning of better management of issues in political parties and stronger alliances that may drive Nigerian politics in the right direction.
The 64 year old Oyetola would appear the more obvious choice for the conservative voter. He has a long track record in partisan politics and as an insurance broker and some may even say he walks, talks and socialises more like the leader of a State should. However, in a political climate where age is an increasingly testy issue at the polls and the critical advantage of incumbency is not as potent as it used to be, there is no telling where the vote will swing.
The re-run in Osun is a journey back to square one, into the never ending battle between the only two viable political parties that we have – APC and PDP. As neutrals and people who are only interested in the advancement of the country into prosperity and greater development, many of us want a vibrant political environment where wit comes to play with intellectual dexterity and political savvy, the kind of contest that inspires admiration from all quarters, even across political divides. This re-run in Osun fortunately grants us an opportunity to see how our politicians handle political pressure.
Depending on where one stands, there are many negative angles to the result of the Osun election. Still, it is an altogether positive outcome that the activities of the ‘lesser opposition’, viable or not, had an impact on the result of the election. It may signal the beginning of better management of issues in political parties and stronger alliances that may drive Nigerian politics in the right direction.
Asiwaju Vs Ambode
All those who are now angling to take over from the governor are those who want to reap where they did not sow. Asiwaju must be wary of those now jostling to take over, because the voters in Lagos are no fools.
It is no secret that all is not well between Akinwunmi Ambode, the Lagos State governor and his political godfather, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Most of the nation’s newspapers have feasted on the issue in the past few weeks. I think Asiwaju should go out of his way to forgive the governor and grant his blessings for a second term. Lagosians, who are the voters, believe, like this column does, that Ambode has performed in office and he seems ready to do more. As the saying goes, Asiwaju should note that the devil you know is better than the angel you have not seen.
All those who are now angling to take over from the governor are those who want to reap where they did not sow. Asiwaju must be wary of those now jostling to take over, because the voters in Lagos are no fools. Removing Ambode could precipitate protest voters that could see Lagos going to the opposition. Like what happened when the late Prof Femi Agbalajobi and his brother from Epe, Sarunmi, lost the opportunity many years ago.
Ambode is the type of Governor Lagosians want and will always root for. “Omode kii mon eko je ko ma ra lowo”.
So, sir, please, let him continue.
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