One would not wish the fate of Grigori Rasputin on a living being. Suspecting that he was working for a separate peace with the Germans, they assassinated him. He did not die easily.
Vladimir Putin is the sole ruler of Russia, not some influential personalities at court. Putin is fighting an internal war, trying to bring an unwilling region back to the fold of the Soviet Socialist Republics. Ukraine does not wish to be part of Russia.
Sometimes strength can be a disadvantage. The example of Goliath is commonly used and it has been used in the case of Ukraine and Russia as a case of David and Goliath. Yes, too much power can be a disadvantage. Forty miles (64 km) of equipment moving towards Kyiv must be frightening enough to a normal army not to mention a civilian one. Yet, so much could be done to cripple Russia on the road to Kyiv.
Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a flag raising ceremony on the ferry Marshal Rokossovsky via a video link at the Novo-Ogaryovo state residence outside Moscow on March 4, 2022. (Photo by Alexey NIKOLSKY / SPUTNIK / AFP)
Most commentators talk of the fate of Ukraine is being determined in Kyiv. What about the fate of Putin? Between 1991 and 2008, there was a period of state confusion. Within this confusion were opportunities for those who are able to see them. At one time exhausted the term of the president, he exchanged the post of prime minister for one year after being president. In the election that followed, he was elected president. Then in 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed. It was an occasion for shame and disgrace for Putin and his generation while the West went around triumphantly celebrating the victory of Democracy over Dictatorship. He went back to St. Petersburg. I still prefer to call the capital Leningrad. Putin claims that he had to go and drive taxi to make ends meet. At the same time, he nursed his psychological injury and dreamed of restoring Russia back to its glory. That restoration was bound with Ukraine coming back as part of Russia.
In the meantime, a number of states that were part of the Soviet Union had gone and signed on as part of NATO – the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. If Putin didn’t do something about it, his beloved Ukraine would soon follow. After roughly over twenty-something years in power over the Russian Federation, Putin made his move. Although the new Russian constitution stipulated a two-term period for the president, Putin is on his fourth period 2018 – 2024. A period of war ensures regime elongation takes place; unless Putin suffers for his war crimes in Ukraine.
Anyway, we are running ahead of ourselves. Putin surrounded three-quarters of Ukraine and began a twenty-four-mile equipment drive to the capital of Ukraine.
Why the United States of America would not invade Ukraine must baffle professional analysts and other observers. The love-hate of Putin and Ukraine was well known. They spent useful time in fruitless diplomatic discussion with him, while he put together his army.
But things did not go well, especially in the north of the country where the soil was soft and famous 24-mile equipment train could only made three miles in five days. Food and fuel began to run out.
More importantly, the Ukrainians put up such a feisty resistance that the Russians were surprised. In some places, Russian soldiers were begging for food and surrendering their arms and uniforms. Some rules of NATO did not allow non-members to enjoy the full membership status, but NATO pour as many arms and ammunitions as the rules allowed. While the Russian force did nothing with their air superiority in the first five days, NATO imposed no-flight rule over their territory. Truly, nothing was going Putin’s way in Putin’s war in his beloved Ukraine.
Just as things were not going well in Ukraine, it was not going well in Russia. NATO is good at ensuring that a raft of regulations that must govern Russia’s relationship with NATO countries, especially in the areas of financial matters. In no time at all, the value of the rubble dropped. NATO went after the wealth of the oligarchs and expensive lifestyles. They also targeted Putin’s money and froze them wherever they are to be found. As much as Putin had boasted that he had prepared for the regulations NATO were going to throw at him and his ruling group, there is no doubt that they are biting.
One day, this particular war will end so that the warriors can bury their dead, heal the sick and prepare for another war. As the Latin says: si wis pacem, para bellum; ‘if you want peace, prepare for war’. Will Vladimir Putin be there preparing for another war? Or will the next war be fought behind his back?
In the meantime, there is the grave matter of nuclear war. On a number of occasions now, Putin has threatened nuclear war if any one comes to the aid of Ukraine. Is he serious? Is he joking?
He must be aware of what nuclear war implies. He is not the only one who has nuclear weapon. United States of America has it. Besides, the five members of the Security Council, including Russia, India and Israel and a few other countries have nuclear weapons. That is why some of these countries have sent secret messages to Russia to be careful itself and stop playing with serious matters. Truly, Russia gets away with some leeway with weapons in Syria. Still, Russia must not play with fire. When fire burns in the forest, it respects the place of the sugarcane. Is Putin prepared to fall and let everything else fall with him?
In recent times, the nature of the mental state Putin has been put into question. Is he fully in command of his mental state of his mind? Is it possible for one person to be able to summarise the mind of another human being? I have my doubts. But those who know Putin, and those who have made him a subject of their study, believe that he is not one to bluff. He is bound to do what he says he will do. Those who know him should warn him. Or else, in the name of humanity, put him out.
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