Next month, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) will be holding its national convention in Port Harcourt, Rivers State, despite rumours the interim chairman, Ali Modu Sheriff, may be angling for either an extension of that date, and thus his mandate, or the position of national chairman. As part of the intense jostling ahead of the convention, there were indications not too long ago that the party had already zoned plum offices. Party leaders have denied any zoning took place anywhere. The rumour should be disregarded, they said.
What is not in doubt is that a convention will be taking place either on the stated date, or any other date not too distant from the first date. What is also not in doubt is that the dynamics in the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) have compelled the PDP to announce, without giving the matter much thought, that the presidency had been zoned to the North. The APC’s Muhammadu Buhari is from the North, and given the irrepressible parochialism of Nigerian politics, the PDP believes it would be suicidal to swim against the tide. Should the APC present a northern candidate in the next presidential poll, the PDP would be sailing near the wind not to look north for its own candidate, party leaders concluded.
Nigerian political parties loath taking risks. If they were minded to dare, they would discover that no candidate is unbeatable, for the dynamics that shape Nigerian presidential elections are not what the voters often think they have identified. Moshood Abiola did not win in 1993 simply because he was a Muslim, Yoruba or, as it seemed, a progressive. He won because, among other reasons, he had an extensive network of friends all around the country and had won the admiration and trust of Muslims and Christians alike for his warm, idiosyncratic politics. In addition, his opponent, Bashir Tofa, was staid, detached and unpopular even in his own state. What is more, Chief Abiola and his party outspent the opposition.
It is doubtful whether ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo won in 1999 just because he came from the Yoruba stock, which the power brokers in the country were trying to mollify over the murder in detention of Chief Abiola. Among other things, he won because the power brokers distrusted Chief Obasanjo’s opponent, Olu Falae, whom they thought had not transcended his Yoruba worldview. Chief Obasanjo had deferred to the North considerably in his first tour in 1976-1979, and the brokers thought he would be amenable, indifferent to ethnicity , and remain predictable because of his military background and network. Above all he was not an insufferable purist or an ideologue like Chief Falae.
Two main reasons accounted for President Buhari’s victory in 2015. He was able to strike an alliance with the Southwest; and ex-president Goodluck Jonathan bungled too many things, including the insurgency problem and the irresponsible manner he left the treasury door ajar. Had both these two conditions not been present in 2015, neither the former army general’s military antecedent nor his asceticism would have proved lethal enough. After all, both attributes were noticeable in him when he ran for the top office in 2003, 2007, and 2011. More importantly, as Dr Jonathan’s victory in 2011 showed, the highly intriguing geopolitical dynamics of Nigerian elections indicate that to win, a candidate must take at least three zones out of the six and handsomely share a fourth.
Therefore, zoning the presidency to the North, as the PDP has desperately done, is a reflection of their superficial understanding of the emerging dynamics of Nigerian politics and a safe and easy resort to simplistic electoral permutations. It is safe because they imagine that if they can split the North with President Buhari in 2019 by at least taking a half of one of the three zones, take the very safe South-South and Southeast, and possibly take the Southwest which they seem to believe is disgruntled, they would win. That chance, as far as analysis goes, exists. But the devil is in the detail. Technically, contrary to its calculations, the PDP may in fact be undone by its insistence on picking a candidate from a particular region before the party and country can determine his popularity and national acceptance. In 2015, the APC knew it could not hope to win by picking anyone from the South to slug it out with Dr Jonathan despite his unpopularity. It had to pick someone from the North, not just because he was from the North, but because his appeal to that region as well as his charisma had sufficiently matured to deny the PDP candidate a share of the votes capable of producing a hung election.
Mercifully for the APC, the PDP is engaged in lazy politics. As this column has maintained, the PDP must come to terms with why it lost the 2015 polls, and especially embark on a purge of its leadership in order to present a fresh face to the country. The party still pretends that the corruption it allowed to fester very badly under Dr Jonathan can be glossed over by rhetoric and grandstanding. It pretends that the corruption came about because of extenuating electoral spending, and that the APC is also guilty of that crime anyway. The party of course has its strengths; but it is its weaknesses that the public prefers to focus on, and it is those weaknesses that it must find absolution. It must show penitence for the great moral wrong it did to the country, and show proof that its new men, if it can find them, are so principled that they would forswear such unhealthy and destructive practices in the future. And they must show that contrition convincingly. Merely picking a northern candidate through zoning will not redress the wrong nor assuage the feelings of a country still hurting very badly.
Contrary to what the APC thinks, it is still very vulnerable despite the PDP’s lack of sense and deftness. For a number of reasons, the ruling party can be beaten in the next polls, even if it makes the economy grow at a stupendous seven to 10 percent between now and 2019. Regardless of the fate of the economy, a number of factors are forcefully shaping national discourse and politics, chief among which are (a) the issues of devolution manifesting grimly, for example, in the Biafra polemics and Fulani herdsmen aggravations; (b) human rights problem manifesting in the increasing and untamed brutality of security agents such as was evident in the Army/Shiite clash last year in Zaria; and (c) bitterness over the skewness of national appointments. The party better able to seize upon these subjects and frame them in a manner that resonates with the electorate will likely have the upper hand. So far, the APC is dithering, unable to manage its victory with half as much daring and surefootedness as it summoned at the beginning of the 2015 electoral joust; and the PDP is pussyfooting, unable to come to terms with its 2015 defeat.
Believing that it is wisely starting early in order to stand a chance of success in the 2019 polls, the PDP has zoned its key offices. The APC, also believing that it won office on a groundswell of electoral goodwill that cannot be gainsaid, assumes an enigmatic posture of false indomitability. Though 2019 appears far away, in fact so distant when compared with the over two-year plan that fetched the APC victory in 2015, neither of the two leading parties can be sure of victory or defeat. The country is a little exhausted with all the zonings and ethnic shenanigans of the past few decades, zonings that brought nothing but stagnation and engendered mediocre leadership. Given the grinding poverty and lack of national cohesion and ambition, it may be time for a really charismatic and brilliant nationalist of the first rank to aggregate the yearnings of the people and confidently take Nigeria from the depths of despair to the apex of glory. It is time for someone to break all ethnic, religious and social barriers. It is time to weld a national identity. It is time to rouse all Nigerians for greatness before the fissiparous tendency in the land takes over completely. Whoever can do these deserves all the support.
NATION
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