The year 2018 has been a watershed in the history of democracy, not just in Nigeria and Africa, but globally too. Why is that? Well since 2016 – when this moment really began, we have been seeing a new kind of democracy, or rather, a new kind of democratic process emerge – one that started with Donald Trump, and has culminated in the recent victory of Jair Bolsonaro in the Brazilian presidential elections.
Gone are the now archaic methods of vote manipulation, instead now we are seeing the use and abuse of information on a massive scale[1]. We are beginning to see the emergence of whatsapp in particular, as a massive information-influencing tool – in this article the elections in Brazil were even dubbed the WhatsApp elections[2]. Perhaps this was always the inevitable result of hoarding personal information on such a global scale. Upon reflection, one might be tempted to ask how we would not see that potential for manipulation?It is curious because if the government demanded knowledge of our location at all times, stored our messages on secure servers, and kept an in-depth backlog of our likes, dislikes, etc. we would absolutely refuse; yet we hand over precisely all that information over willingly to a handful of corporations – Facebook, Google and Twitter. It is only when knowledge of this information is sold to companies such as Cambridge Analytica that we realise the gravity of the situation.
With the stakes higher than ever, political actors are simply employing the tools that have the highest likelihood of success, and that is what disinformation campaigns provide. The reason that disinformation campaigns are so successful is that they tend to be a low cost, high reward tactic especially compared to more conventional methods. The problem is that these tools implicitly erode democratic institutions and the processes that drive them. It is interesting to note that whatsapp in particular, has been very successful in Brazil, India and Nigeria – these very diverse and fractured states have proved a perfect hunting ground for the storm of divisive fake news that characterises disinformation campaigns.
As the Nigerian elections draw ever closer, the sensationalism of the fake news has been ramping up. However unlike in the recent Brazilian elections, there does not seem to be a coordinated attempt to influence people towards something in particular, rather it more or less resembles a free for all arms race where anything and everything goes. The fake news might concern anything from IPOB, to the Niger Delta Avengers, to the Farmer/Herdsmen crisis and so on. The end result is that our collective fear is hijacked towards anyone dissimilar from ourselves – we are suspicious of Shi’ites protesting and demand that they follow the law when they want precisely the same thing – that court orders be obeyed; or we forget that both farmers and herdsman are a crucial part of Nigeria’s food production system, and instead we fall into narratives of us versus them.
The Centre for Democracy and Development began outlining these trends at the start of 2018, and has been developing a template to counter these problems before they arrive as we approach the 2019 elections. CDD has already begun work on countering fake news through a series of preventative measures, which include: training sessions with INEC and NOA, training sessions with journalists, independent fact-checking that focuses on social media, and will be setting up and an Elections Analysis centre whose focus will be to monitor the pre-elections phase, the elections and the post-elections phase. In addition to all that, CDD will be raising awareness of these issues through radio and TV, and doing citizen education through the use of videos and songs in all the major languages. However CDD will not just be working alone, we are already in partnership with other Civil Society Organisations, social media groups etc. But this work cannot be done unless all of us – citizens, organisations, government, pull together and realise that harmful and divisive content may provide temporary gain, but in the long run leads to a state that is more divided, more fearful and insecure and ultimately less pleasant to live in. It is our collective responsibility to fight the agents of disinformation, correct our friends and family who mistakenly misinform us, and forge a path towards peaceful co-existence.
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