Barring any last minute change, the political temperature rising ahead of the finely balanced February 16th Presidential elections, might apparently be one of the most keenly contested elections in the annals of the country’s electoral history.
Interestingly, the political campaigns are getting heated up and attracting higher momentum, the media has been maintaining the status quo through bringing up these political gladiators ready to face the presidential battle to speak on diverse areas via debates, town-hall meetings, interviews and others.
However, the crux of the matter remains that this election is a litmus test for Nigeria’s democratic maturity, hence it hinges on the dictates of power welding and whose interests really matter. Whoever wins in the end, need to swiftly work very hard in addressing the deep divisions in the country and other challenges.
With just few days to the elections, the elections might be the toughest test to Nigeria’s democratic progress. It is noteworthy to see that some vibrant civil societies in the country have continued to play a constructive part to promoting the democratic project including enhancing the integrity of elections through civic/voter education and election observation.
The facts, statistics and the voters
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has unveiled that a total number of 84,271,832 Nigerians are registered to cast their votes in the 2019 general elections. Interestingly, the number rose from the 69,720,350 voters registered for the 2015 general elections.
Another interesting fact is that Lagos and Kano states have maintained the lead in the number of registered voters for the forthcoming 2019 general elections, out of the 84,004,084 Nigerians will vote in the elections, Lagos state accounts for 6.6 million, while Kano accounts for 5.5 million One would recall that in the 2015 general elections, Lagos and Kano states recorded 5.8 million and 5.0 million respectively.
According to the statistics released by INEC, the figures for the voter register comprises – South south with 12,841,279 voters. Southeast recorded 10,052,236, Southwest has 16,292,212, Northwest recorded 20,158,100, Northeast has 11,289,293, and North-central recorded 13, 366,070. The analysis of the voter register indicates that female voters constitute 47.14%, which is 39,598,645 voters; while male voters constitute 52.85%, which is 44,405,439 voters. Youths that will be participating in the elections (18-35) constitute 51.11%, which is 42,938,458 voters; while the middle aged (36-50) constitute 29.97%, which is 25,176,144.
The statistics have revealed that students form the largest group of voters in the occupation group, accounting for 26.57% (22M) followed by the farmers 16.23% (13.6M) and surprisingly the housewives’ category with 14.1% (12M). Using the age distribution chart, youths between the age 18-35 group accounts for 51.11%, the middle-aged 36-50 are 29.97% with the elderly coming in the rear.
Another interesting phenomenon ahead of the elections is that in the previous years the thin line between ethnicity and politics has often been blurred but the President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration segregated the relationship between the two separate entities thus political positions or appointments were determined by one-sided ethnic considerations.
The Voting Pattern
There are seventy-three candidates, according to Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), vying for a chance to lead the country for the next four years. Despite the huge number of presidential candidates contesting in the polls, the focus of this election has been placed on the key contenders from the two major political parties: All Progressive Congress (APC) — Current President, Muhammadu Buhari — and the main opposition party, People’s Democratic Party (PDP) — former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar with others are merely aspiring.
This year’s elections ushered in new twist to the campaigns by our dear politicians such as the electioneering buzz created on Social media to engage the younger audience and the extravagant outdoor campaigns.
As revealed by the INEC statistics, this elections will bring the youth population to the fore hence they will be more politically involved in the democratic process. The involvement and participation of young people is not surprising because they constitute about 70 per cent of the population, hence major parties have continuously focused on mobilising the youth population and students for campaign and the voting process.
The Voting pattern in the North over the years has been influenced by ethnic and religious sentiment. This region is expected to be a battle ground for votes, former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, who hails from the North East, night get considerable support from the region come while Buhari’s grassroot support in the North West has proven resilient over three election cycles.
Looking at the grassroots popularity, the APC which retained most of its territory in the South West given their significantly stronger base than the PDP currently will pull significant numbers in the presidential elections. A flash back to the 2015 elections, the APC controlled 4 of the 6 states in the South West. However, the recent elections have put Ekiti and Ondo states in the hands of the APC.
The elections – and the future of democracy in Nigeria
Beyond politics, the 2019 elections will provide a litmus test on Nigeria’s ability to conduct credible and peaceful elections especially as a role model to other African countries. The first matter of concern relates to public trust in the Electoral Commission who is responsible for managing the process – from voter registration to election day operations – in an independent and impartial fashion. Whilst recognized as a highly trustworthy institution for more than a decennium, the debacle that followed some gubernatorial elections last year especially Osun State severely undermined INEC’s reputation.
As the elections is fast approaching and the global world is watching keenly and closely, considering the political-economic strategic position of Nigeria as a global partner in Africa and indeed, the global world. We must examine our country’s past at this critical moment in order to understand the present and thus avoid some certain loopholes that has constituted as a cog in the wheel of the nation’s slow progress in future.
Alao Abiodun is a Journalist. He can be reached via Alaojoshua200@gmail.com. Tweets @Kingbiodun_
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