Ahead of the inauguration of the 10th National Assembly, several Senators-elect have begun lobbying for presidency of the Senate. Louis Achi examines the associated political algorithm that would guide the ruling party’s choice
The stability of congressional leadership is a crucial feature of advanced democracies the world over, particularly the United States of America (USA) from which Nigeria cloned the basic template of her presidential democracy – after dumping the Westminster model.
Though in the US, considerations like religion and ethnicity are alien or extremely distant factors in composing the canvass of its legislative leadership, in Nigeria, these represent the core algorithm for the customary horse-trading and positioning the principal officers of the federal legislative assembly.
As it were, the 10th National Assembly, barring any unforeseen twists, will be inaugurated on Tuesday, June 13, 2023 – two days after the lifespan of the current ninth National Assembly would have lapsed on Sunday, June 11.
The current ninth National Assembly was inaugurated on June 11, 2019. Its lifespan will terminate on June 11, 2023, which is Sunday, a non-working day while the next day, June 12, is a public holiday, being Democracy Day.
Not surprisingly, some senators-elect have begun overt and covert lobby for the Senate presidency. But given its preeminent status in the bicameral federal legislature, who emerges the 10th Senate president also becomes the chair of the national parliament. This is appropriately dominating current national discourse.
The 10th Senate will be populated by lawmakers from the All Progressives Congress (APC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP), New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), the Social Democratic Party (SDP), All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and Young Progressive Party (YPP).
Senators-elect who have declared their ambitions to lead the 10th National Assembly include: Senator Jibrin Barau (Kano Central); Sani Musa (Niger East); Orji Kalu (Abia North); Godswill Obot Akpabio (Akwa-Ibom North-West); Osita Izunaso (Imo West); Peter Ndubueze (Imo North); Abdul’Aziz Yari (Zamfara West); Ahmad Lawan (Yobe North); and Ali Ndume (Borno South).
Although the President-elect, Bola Ahmed Tinubu believes competence should be prioritised over religious and ethnic considerations, many Nigerians, including members of his party believe there is a “religious debt” to be repaid by him and the ruling party – given the Muslim-Muslim slant of his party’s presidential ticket. And the first test in this regard for him is the constitution of the National Assembly leadership positions, particularly the Senate President who is number three man in the country.
While these leadership positions are by convention supposed to be decided by the federal lawmakers themselves, the party with the majority number of seats has a role, as regards zoning and balance of power.
The APC already has the majority in the Senate with 57 senators from the 102 already-declared constituencies. Expectedly, all eyes will be on the ruling party, bearing in mind its inability to ensure geographical spread since 2015 during which the South-east and South-south were not represented among Nigeria’s top four citizens: President, Vice President, Senate President and Speaker. The highest position the regions have produced is Deputy Senate President.
Significantly, since the Second Republic to date, the South-south region has produced only one senate president in the person of late Joseph Wayas from Cross River State, while the South-east has produced five in the current Fourth Republic – Evan Enwerem, Chuba Okadigbo, Anyim Pius Anyim, Adolphus Wabara and Ken Nnamani.
Today, many believe that it’s politically deserving to allow the South-south geo-political zone produce the 10th Senate President in this new democratic dispensation. The zone has not been given the opportunity since the return of democratic rule in 1999.
According to Prince Kazeem Afegbua, former Edo State Commissioner for Information, “You need to balance all the power algorithms to ensure you instill confidence in the system and promote a culture of participation and inclusiveness. Geopolitical zones must necessarily be patronised in the spirit of national unity so that their own aspirations would be accommodated in the larger overall interest of the country.
“The ruling party must be conscious of those geopolitical interests and balancing to build stability in the system and ensure that the people are ready for the leadership of the party and the country. Power sharing is as complex as the power acquisition process.
“I am also very interested in the South-south having the position of the Senate Presidency following the support the zone gave to the Tinubu presidential aspiration from the pre-primary stage to the post-primary and general election.”
The emerging elite consensus is that conceding the position to the South-south will also drastically reduce the usual acrimony that characterises such struggle for power among the geo-political zones, cut out distractions for the peaceful and smooth take-off of the new governance dispensation.
Many believe that while the South-east is another deserving region, a significant segment of opinions insist that this needs to be balanced with what the region contributed to Tinubus’s victory and even the wider history of the region’s occupation of that preeminent federal legislative position.
This sentiment then does not serve the best interest of Senators Orji Kalu (Abia North); Osita Izunaso (Imo West); and Peter Ndubueze (Imo North) who have thrown their caps into the ring.
Analysts have cut to the heart of the dilemma of the South-east region’s claim to the position. For instance, Waziri Adamu words: “The South-east went on holiday during the presidential election and literally abandoned the presidential candidate but faced their own individual election. They were feasting in Obi’s party in show of ethnic solidarity. Senator Orji for example, got huge votes to be returned as Senator, but left the presidential candidate abandoned in the cold.
“While he got over 40,000 votes, his presidential candidate got very ridiculous votes in the region of 6,000 votes across the state. Not even 5%. In the entire South-east states, APC couldn’t score 10% in any of the states…. Akpabio delivered over 120,000 votes in Akwa Ibom, knowing that it is the state of the Chairman of the PDP Presidential Campaign Council.”
Another related fact is that in conceding the position of senate president to the South-south region, Senator Godswill Akpabio is the only ranking senator from the region and based on Senate standing rules, only ranking members of the upper legislative chamber are eligible to contest for the positions of the President and Deputy President of the Senate, respectively.
Another key point often pushed and accurately captured by observer is that the electoral contribution of the South-south also greatly helped the ruling party to clinch the presidency in the 2023 presidential election. Hence, perhaps not surprisingly, an emerging consensus points to the necessity of the ruling party moving to consolidate its electoral success by zoning the Senate Presidency to the South-south.
Going forward from there, from all relevant metrics in picking the next president of the senate, Senator Godswill Obot Akpabio, is widely seen to tick all the significant boxes.
At a testy period in the nation’s political history, the national parliament undoubtedly needs a humble, level headed leader to guide its affairs. Many certainly have not forgotten that Akpabio is a dedicated realist and reformer who bridged all gulfs and levelled much of the development hurdles that challenged his state as exemplified by his selfless stewardship to the people of Akwa Ibom State from 2007 to 2015 as its first citizen.
As former Senate Minority Leader, former Minister of Niger Delta Affairs, Akpabio, is a very experienced and qualified candidate for the job. His unique qualities and exceptional leadership skills have earned him the praise of many groups, including Northern groups, who see him as the best candidate to lead the Senate at this time.
Many may have forgotten that he was the first presidential aspirant to step down and throw his support behind Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, now president-elect, a situation that measurably reduced tension at the APC presidential primaries. He is an uncommon leader who always stands for the people, irrespective of their ethnic and religious affiliations.
In his first senatorial outing as Senator representing Akwa Ibom North-West District, Akpabio quietly became very influential. Though a rookie legislator then, he was instrumental to the emergence of the APC leadership of the Senate. This was no mean feat.
As then Senate Minority Leader, he was at the head of the intervention to put the Calabar-Lagos railway project in the budget. Even the then Senior Special Assistant to the President on Senate Matters, Senator Ita Enang, confirmed and praised him for it.
As governor, he transformed Akwa Ibom State from a typical rural community to an urban community with gigantic infrastructure across the state. As Minister of the Niger Delta Affairs, he completed the 30-year-old, abandoned NDDC Headquarters started by Chief Horsfall in 1993, within two years and relocated the NDDC there.
He was able to construct roads, built Police Barracks, provide several other critical infrastructure. He carried out a forensic audit of the NDDC and firmly insisted that the right things must be done. Today, Akpabio has certainly morphed into a respected national figure ready for higher political responsibility.
Today, the stakes are extremely high and Nigerians are mindful that failure to transition to a new political governance cycle headed by the new democratically elected president, complemented by a level headed leader of the 10th National Parliament, thereby sustaining critical democratic stability may imperil the country’s future as a coherent state.
As it were, only tested pathfinders with demonstrable vision, knowledge and courage can provide the critical leadership to ensure both legislative stability and national progression. And this is Akpabio’s proven forte.
Another senator that would have been considered for the position would be been for Governor of Edo State, Adams Oshiomhole, were he not a first-time senator. As a former National Chairman of the APC, Oshiomhole is quite formidable for the position.
The position of Senate President carries considerable weight, especially in charting the course of bold engagement with the critical elements in the democratic mix and especially so when the occupant enjoys the total confidence of his party as Akpabio undoubtedly does.
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