I stumbled on an opinion piece by a columnist, Dele Sobowale titled TALK OF SOUTH WEST PRESIDENCY IS ABSURD AND UNPATRIOTIC. The piece was an apparent reaction to a statement purportedly made by the Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo regarding the possibility of a South West Presidency in 2023, as an aftermath of a South West aided Buhari win in 2019.
First and foremost, reading through the verified reports, it is clear that certain elements have decided to play mischief with the Vice President’s visit and closed door discussion with the revered Alaafin of Oyo.
It is disturbing that the same mischievous elements dreg up falsehood and then generate a debate around it using their media collaborators.
Regardless, however, Sobowale’s piece does stand history on its head on many of the issues raised.
The Zoning Issue
Nigeria has at least 250 major tribes, all now agglomerated to 36 States and more than 700 local government areas. This is contrary to the 6 geo-political zone fiction that has been fed to us over time. The PDP instituted an unwritten rotation of the Presidency between the North and the South commencing from 1999. Accordingly, once President Obasanjo rounded up his 2nd term, the serious PDP presidential nominations in 2007 were almost unanimously from the North. Does this however make the zoning arrangement binding on every party or every possible contestant? My answer is NO!
As a pointer, there were several Southern contestants for the Presidency in the 2007 elections. This was notwithstanding the fact that the South just completed 8 years in the presidency.
In fact, the South East presented 5 candidates for the 2007 Presidential elections!
It would be disrespectful to argue that high calibre personalities such as Dim Emeka Ojukwu (who contested as flag bearer for APGA) and Chief Orji Uzor Kalu (who contested under PPA) were unserious contestants.
Assuming without conceding that zoning the Presidency is binding, it has never been tribal. To argue the contrary would mean each of the 250 tribes in Nigeria must serially occupy the office, perhaps in alphabetic order. If it was tribal, how come the Northern occupants of the office in this 4th Republic have all come from Katsina State in the North West and how come all South-West occupants from 1960 till date have come from Ogun State, Abeokuta to be precise?
Even if we are to tow the geo-political zone line, it is important to note that while the Igbos produced 2 leaders in the 60s – Nnamdi Azikiwe (albeit ceremonial) and General Aguiyi-Ironsi (1963-1966), there are many other equally important and illustrious ethnic groups yet to produce any president/head of state till date and are therefore more deserving of any so-called zoning preferential treatment.
Numbers and Candidature
The truth of the matter is that in a democracy, parties would most likely always choose a candidate from its largest support base. No party would choose a candidate from a zone where it is not supported.
Conversely, for a geopolitical zone to stand a good chance during a presidential election, it should either align behind one serious contender (as did the North in 2015) or trade-off with other zones to be the only serious frontrunners (as did the SW in 1999).
This perspective on candidature exposes the fallacy in Sobowale’s allegation that late Dr. Ekwueme would have been elected as President in 1999 to heal the wound of the civil war. First, the unanimous concession to the SW in 1999 was compensation for the June 12 debacle and the demise of Chief MKO Abiola. Except Sobowale is attempting to rewrite history, he would remember that the 1979 choice of a SE Vice President was partly to bring the SE back to the mainstream after the civil war. Even at that, the NPN lost massively in the 2 SE States of Anambra and Imo. The respected Ekwueme (who earlier lost governorship nomination to C. C. Onoh) could not even deliver the minimum 25% in those States. How can anybody posit that he could have won in 1999?
Secondly, nobody serves power a la carte. Many dispassionate observers contend that the South East would still lose the election even if all mainstream political parties decide to zone the Presidency to the South East.
In this regard, the experience at the last NBA elections represents a good pointer.
All zones had an unwritten agreement to zone the NBA presidency to the South East. Unfortunately, the South Eastern bar associations could not agree to work together and present a single candidate.
The aftermath was the emergence of Paul Usoro from the South-South. The new President was rumoured to be a reluctant candidate who took advantage of the division in the ranks of the South East lawyers. He scored 4,509 to emerge winner after defeating Mr Arthur Obi Okafor (SAN) who scored 4,423 votes and Prof Ernest Ojukwu (SAN) who scored 3,313. Imagine if one SE candidate had stepped down for the other!
It is also a wrong and irresponsible tactic to threaten Civil War 2 if the Presidency is not zoned to the South East. Or is Sobowale suggesting that the Boko Haram insurgents would be assuaged by zoning the Presidency to the North East? Dissemination of information, thoughts and opinion through the media deserves a bit of discretion. It is a trust that must not be abused in such a cavalier manner. It is very insensitive to wish civil war on a country battling insurgency if voters do not elect a South Easterner as President.
Who Bells the Cat?
Either by freak of nature or by collusion, no 4th Republic mainstream party has ever nominated a presidential flagbearer from the South East.
This is undesirable as the South East has eminently qualified individuals. The followership is however an issue. Beyond the late Nnamdi Azikwe, the South East has not trusted any of its men with pan- Igbo leadership. In 2007, we had an array of stars from the SE putting their names on the ballot. If the South East could only give 5 illustrious sons a total of a paltry 813,000 votes, why should voters from other zones give them more? If the SE voters do not trust presidential candidates from their region, why should others? Why would an Atiku step down after one term for an Igbo Presidency when the touted candidate as APGA governor of Anambra State could only command 155,947 votes for APGA in the 2007 Presidential elections? This is even with his deep pockets, the source of which is shrouded in shady rumours. Let us not forget that the 2007 elections held when Obi was at the peak of his powers as Anambra governor. That he could not deliver 25% votes in Anambra State to APGA tells a lot about the scam he perpetrated on Anambra while he was governor. It was indeed a latent defect that started unraveling when the governor he installed to cover his tracts turned against him.
Why would the South West, with proven leaders like Tinubu, Fashola, Fayemi, Amosun, Osinbajo, Ajimobi, Amosun etc jettison a chance to be president to favour a South East zone that spurned the chance to produce a Senate President when it did not produce a single APC Senator from the SE?
According to a Yoruba saying, (at least before the days of photoshop), there is no cheating in photography, you would see yourself exactly the way you positioned yourself. The South East has a golden chance to play profitable politics for once. A massive support for the APC can convince other stakeholders that the APC can win the 2023 Presidency with a candidate from the South East. It can be argued that the SE stands a chance in the PDP if Atiku serves only one term. However, Atiku has refused to commit any such promise to paper, opening the door of deniability. Secondly, would anybody in his right senses rely on Atiku’s word? This is especially as there are more verifiable facts of his public lies than truths.
So, as we all prepare for the 2019 elections, I strongly advise the so-called Mr Sobowale to avoid rewriting history right before our eyes!
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