DONALD Trump’s first administration was marked by bold, polarising policies on tariffs and immigration. This pattern might re-emerge in his second tenure with significant implications for the US economy, global trade, and domestic labour markets. These policy areas were central to his first term, framed by his “America First” doctrine, and are expected to dominate his agenda again.
With his victory in the November polls and expected return to power in January, Trump’s distinct approach to foreign policy would have significant implications for the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza.
Trump’s use of tariffs during his first term was unprecedented. He targeted China, the European Union, and even traditional allies Canada and Mexico. He viewed tariffs as a tool to address trade imbalances, protect American industries, and reduce dependency on foreign supply chains.
This triggered retaliatory measures and disrupted global trade. In his second term, Trump is expected to double down on tariffs, with potential impacts including a reindustrialisation push, consumer costs, and supply chain reshaping, which might further push businesses to “friend-shore” or relocate supply chains to allied nations. While this could reduce dependence on adversaries like China, it may also create inefficiencies and raise production costs.
Trump’s tariffs, especially the ones targeting China, escalated into a full-blown trade war, with both sides imposing retaliatory measures. The US imposed duties on over $360bn worth of Chinese goods. China reciprocated with tariffs targeting American agricultural products and technology exports.
Trump pledged big tariffs on America’s three largest trading partners—Canada, Mexico, and China—details how he would implement campaign promises that could trigger trade wars. Trump said he would impose a 25 per cent tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico until they clamped down on drugs, particularly fentanyl, and migrants crossing the border, in a move that would appear to violate a free-trade deal.
His policies will likely escalate the economic confrontation with China, potentially broadening tariffs on Chinese goods. This could deepen the uncertainty in global markets. His past use of tariffs against allies suggests he might reintroduce trade measures targeting European automakers or Canadian lumber industries, straining relationships with traditional partners.
There is anxiety that tariffs on countries in the Global South could harm developing economies reliant on exports to the US, increasing global economic inequality. Trump’s tariffs might accelerate the trend toward economic decoupling between the US and China, creating two competing trade blocs. While this could reduce US vulnerability to supply chain disruptions from adversarial nations, it might also limit market access for American businesses abroad.
Trump’s “America First” philosophy, transactional diplomacy, and unpredictability would reshape US involvement in the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts, potentially altering their trajectories and broader geopolitical dynamics.
It is widely believed that Trump’s return to office could impact US support for Ukraine. This could take the form of a rollback or limitation on the billions of dollars in weapons, equipment, and financial assistance that Ukraine currently relies on to resist Russian aggression. The president-elect has hinted at a diplomatic shift in the form of a pivot away from leading the international coalition supporting Ukraine, pressuring European allies to take greater responsibility.
Trump has claimed he could negotiate an end to the Ukraine war within days of taking office, a promise that aligns with his self-styled dealmaker persona. However, such negotiations might favour Russian interests. Trump’s past praise of Vladimir Putin and his critique of NATO suggests he might push for a settlement that involves Ukraine ceding territory or agreeing to terms unfavourable to its sovereignty.
Trump’s return to the presidency would redefine America’s role on the global stage, prioritising short-term strategic gains over long-term stability. The outcomes of such policies would not only affect Ukraine and Gaza but also reshape global perceptions of US leadership in times of crisis.
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