BATTERED by adversity, the people of Sri Lanka are up in arms against their government. Their anger is evident in the protests that have rocked the Indian Ocean island nation since the beginning of April. Essentially, the anti-government uprising was provoked by rising food prices, general inflation, fuel shortages and rolling power cuts. The raging turmoil is a veritable lesson to developing countries that economic hardship and political repression can quickly set the masses against the political leadership.
The genesis of the unrest in Sri Lanka is traced to late 2021 when the cost of living began to skyrocket. Simultaneously, the country, under the leadership of the Rajapaksa brothers — Gotabaya (president) and Mahinda (prime minister) — witnessed a huge fall in the value of its national currency. By March, the rupee had declined against the United States dollar by 30 per cent. This curtailed food and fuel imports. Food queues became the order of the day and many were forced to skip meals. Lack of medicines has accentuated the health crisis.
Although Gotabaya had swept to power on popular acclaim in 2019, things have turned around bitterly for him and his family. He has been accused of not only favouring his family, some of whom were — and still are — in government, but also his Sinhalese ethnic nationality. Other nationalities accuse him of repression, illegal arrests, brutality and curtailment of human rights. These days, the country is largely united in opposition to the Rajapaksas because of economic hardship.
On April 3, thousands of Sri Lankans trooped out to the streets, calling for the resignation of the government. In the ensuing protests, violence has reared its head, leading to the destruction and burning of properties linked to the Rajapaksa family and government officials.
The violence has claimed many lives, including that of a legislator, Amarakeerthi Athukorala, of the ruling party. Media reports said he shot two people – killing a 27-year-old man – after being surrounded by a mob in Nittambuwa, about 40 kilometres from Colombo, the country’s capital. CCTV footage showed the lawmaker and his security officer fleeing into a nearby building, where their corpses were later found. A hotel owned by one of the Rajapaksa children that is usually favoured by foreign tourists was also torched.
In the past week, the protesters have forced the Prime Minister (Mahinda) to quit. Despite this, the protesters are still camped on the streets. Consequently, Gotabaya declared a state of emergency. From the scenes on the streets, this has not calmed frayed nerves. The protesters are adamant that Gotabaya must resign as well. He is having none of that. To save face, he appointed a new PM, Ranil Wickremesinghe, from an opposition party. The word on the street is that the president and the new PM are allies though they belong to different political parties.
In its defence, the Sri Lanka government claims that the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns triggered the country’s economic troubles. That is partly true. There is also the higher cost of oil arising from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but economic experts blame the damage mainly on ruinous populist policies by Gotabaya. The deadly bombings of churches three years ago have also hurt tourism. In 2019, he cut taxes when he assumed office, causing the government’s revenue to fall by $1.4 billion.
The economic troubles will not end easily. Sri Lanka now imports $3 billion more than it exports annually. That is unsustainable. Currently, it has little to fund imports. In 2019, foreign reserves closed at $7.6 billion. By March, this had crashed to $1.93 billion. To stem the haemorrhage, the government banned the importation of fertiliser in 2021. It was a devastating choice as widespread crop failure ensued.
With the lockdowns damaging tourism – one of the largest sources of government revenue – there was little way out of the foreign reserves crisis. Debt is rising; the foreign component stands currently at $51 billion. The country, which has a population of 22 million, needs to repay $7 billion this year but is already in default. China and India, and the World Bank have pledged financial aid, while the rest of the world is preoccupied with Russia’s war on Ukraine. As such, the people still have to press home their demands for a positive change.
Once a popular leader, Mahinda etched his name in gold among Sri Lankans during his first ascension to office in 2004 by defeating the Tamil Tigers or the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam insurrection in 2009 after a 26-year campaign. As of 2007, 70,000 people had died in the civil war. The Rajapaksa family has played major socio-political roles in Sri Lanka since the conquest. Partly, this is what the people are campaigning against.
Sri Lanka’s crisis offers lessons for sit-tight African rulers and incompetent leaders. Nigeria, whose democracy is also in turmoil despite official pretensions, is undergoing similar economic tensions because of horrendous leadership. University lecturers have been on strike since February with no immediate end in sight. Inflation has resurged to 16.82 per cent, as food and energy prices soar to unprecedented heights. In addition, Nigeria is plagued by the twin evil of electricity shortages and insecurity, particularly Islamic terrorism and kidnapping. Unconvincingly, the President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), persists in blaming his regime’s failures on previous administrations and the COVID-19 pandemic. Like the Rajapaksas, he has also alienated majority of the country’s ethnic nationalities through rabid sectionalism and nepotism.
To prevent a similar situation in Nigeria, the Buhari regime has to do far better than before. For now, Nigeria is servicing debts with between 86 per cent and 90 per cent of its income. As it winds down its tenure, it should prioritise the revival of local production in every sector. In seven years, Buhari has unwisely neglected privatisation. That is bad economics. He should privatise the state-owned enterprises, decentralise policing, curtail insecurity and violence, work out the electricity logjam and stop the borrowing spree.
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