AS the COVID-19-induced lockdown bites harder worldwide, countries are grappling with knotty options on the benefits and hazards of rolling back restrictions. Despite misgivings by health professionals and leaders fearful of the unknown, pressure is mounting for gradual easing to free comatose economies, revive productive activities and rescue the most vulnerable families from near certain starvation. For transiting economies like Nigeria with a poverty-stricken majority, an overwhelming informal sector and lack of meaningful social welfare net, political authorities need to engage in critical and creative thinking to reopen the economy.
The three areas under federal lockdown are Lagos and Ogun states, and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja. Other states have in lockstep, announced either total or partial lockdown to break the chain of the invasive COVID-19 infections.
In the past few weeks, the weaknesses of the economy and of social services have been obvious. The poor are confronted with mass hunger, informal sector workers, deprived of daily subsistence earnings and the large army of jobless, unable to scrounge from the droppings off the table of the employed, are desperate. Oil prices have crashed; production, transport and artisanal activities are in abeyance, while the government is struggling with the unaccustomed task of distributing palliatives with its usual inefficiency. The country is on the tenterhooks as insecurity, rather than abate, has spiked, stretching the ill-equipped and corrupt security system beyond its limits.
Clearly, continuing a total lockdown, especially in the industrial and agricultural hubs, is fraught with dire consequences for the economy and the citizens. The formal sector is already laid low; forcing layoffs, pay cuts and shutdowns. Worse, the freezing of the informal sector that, according to the International Monetary Fund, accounts for 65 per cent of the GDP, 90 per cent of new jobs and 60 per cent of all urban jobs, has left millions idle, restless and angry. FP Insider said that by mid-March, Nigeria and other oil exporters were each losing about $100 million per day.
The choices, therefore, are stark, presenting world leaders with a classic Catch-22 conundrum: the IMF thinks its earlier forecast of a 3.0 per cent shrinking of the global GDP is overly optimistic and projects per capita GDP to drop in 170 countries. China’s GDP has dropped by 6.8 per cent. Joseph T Wu, a professor at the University of Hong Kong, writes in the Lancet Medical Journal that the reality is: “Although control policies such as physical distancing and behavioural change are likely to be maintained for some time, proactively striking a balance between resuming economic activities and keeping the reproductive number below one is likely to be the best strategy until effective vaccines become widely available.”
Countries are therefore thinking outside the box to prevent the total collapse of their economies that they believe to be inevitable under prolonged restrictions. The World Health Organisation, overcoming its resistance to easing, has issued a six-point criteria among which are that transmission be controlled, capacities put in place for testing and isolation, preventive measures strengthened in public places, importation risks minimised and communities made fully educated on the virus. The priority, said the head of the WHO’s Health Emergencies Programme, Maria van Kerkhove, “…is to get people back to work, get these economies going back again as soon as possible.” The key, the WHO emphasises, is, “Lockdowns must be lifted strategically, and not all at once, to prevent further disruptions.”
Striking a balance between minimising the damage to the economy and the risk of the pandemic getting out of hand is a difficult decision the Buhari regime should take now. This should be a guiding principle for Nigeria as the two-week extension of the lockdown in Lagos, Ogun and the FCT ordered by the President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), is set to expire. The country cannot afford a prolonged complete lockdown of Lagos.
Others are showing the way. Wuhan, the original epicentre of the pandemic, made the returning workers to go through a battery of health tests before allowing them into the town on April 8. Despite having 146,000 confirmed cases and 4,735 deaths, Germany partly rolled back its national lockdown, permitting some small businesses, schools to take examinations amid social distancing rules and a ramp-up of testing and preventive measures. In Denmark, Norway and Austria, small shops, some services, schools, museums and libraries have been opened. These are countries worst hit by the pandemic than Nigeria.
Even Spain, the third worst affected country with 213,024 cases and 22,157 deaths by Thursday, has allowed non-essential workers to return to work; bookshops in Italy, the second worst affected with 187,327 cases and 25,085 deaths, have reopened. In the United States, the worst affected with 849,092 cases and 47,974 deaths, a vigorous debate on reopening the economy is underway.
Nigeria’s 873 cases and 28 deaths as of Wednesday are worrisome, given the poor readiness of its health facilities, but measures are needed to keep crucial activities going. Sweden controversially did not lock down, but adopted a raft of measures and says its strategy to build “herd immunity,” is working.
The federal and state governments should adopt strategic, selective, technically sound, phased policies to ease the lockdown. While a national strategy and coordination are crucial, the states can, based on the local spread and capabilities, adopt different easing methods as some are already doing, but coordinate effectively with the Presidential Task Force and the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control.
Priority should be given to construction sites, especially essential infrastructure that generates substantial revenue like the Apapa Ports access roads, the Lagos-Ibadan and Abuja-Kano expressways and the Second Niger Bridge. A lockdown affords a great opportunity to speed up these projects without the inconvenience of heavy traffic. Banks should partially reopen; drugs and medical supplies manufacturers should stay in business with appropriate safeguards. So should some small businesses, food-manufacturing firms, farms and retail businesses like online suppliers, which can adhere to strict social distancing and preventive health measures. Large, mass gatherings will remain banned.
Test-runs, as recommended by the WHO, can be undertaken by some states, under very strict supervision by health experts. Georgia, South Carolina and Tennessee are among the US states bent on easing lockdown rules, while New York, the most afflicted, rightly holds back. Governors should never relax lockdown for political reasons as some have done; never for religious reasons, services or social gatherings like weddings, burials or parties. Only the living can attend the church or the mosque. Pandering to religious sentiments rapidly spread infections and the deaths of many in Iran, South Korea and Malaysia.
Let farmers in the rural areas return to the land, food stores reopen for takeaway purchases only. Big markets should remain shut, but states should adopt the controlled market system introduced by the Lagos State Government; and let ports reopen with increased automation, providing an opportunity to do away with the multiple agencies that have hampered smooth operations there for long.
Like Sweden, Taiwan, South Korea and the EU countries, gradual easing should be accompanied by exponential increase in testing centres, feeding centres and greater support for health services. Everyone entering the country should be tested and quarantined.
South Korea and Taiwan, the poster-boys for managing the pandemic, have restored activities in several sectors. Ghana, after three weeks of lockdown, has strategically eased restrictions in its four most economically important regions, while Burkina Faso has reopened the capital, Ouagadougou’s main market.
There is no silver bullet and every choice made comes with risks and consequences. But the world is in navigating an uncharted territory and the duty of leaders is to try new things responsibly to cater for the greater good, save lives and the economy. Buhari and the state governors should rise to the occasion and work out a clear plan on how to reopen the nation’s economy. The selective opening up period should be used for a better preparation for the second waves of the virus, which experts have warned will be inevitable.
END
Be the first to comment