It is quite amusing how the leadership of the All Progressives Congress (APC) engages in self-deception, with claims of ‘not losing sleep’ over the political implications of losing influential members to a major opposition party. The increased level of consultations within the APC party hierarchy alone is an indication of the state of panic within the party.
Since coming into office on May 29, 2015, President Muhammadu Buhari’s political fortune and that of his party have gone through a roller coaster of turmoil. At the start of year 2017, the biggest challenge that stood against the president’s desire to seek re-election was his then failing health. The president’s ill health casted a shadow of uncertainty around his fitness to carry on in office, so much that there were reports of certain governors from the North going around lobbying for the vice-presidential slot, should the president throw in the towel on account of illness. Fortunately for the president, his health improved and it no longer seems to be much of an obstacle to his political ambitions.
Since the controversial emergence of the leadership of the National Assembly three years ago, the All Progressives Congress (APC) as a party has struggled to recover from the shock of that event. In retrospect, the past Chief John Oyegun led national leadership of the All Progressives Congress (APC) was not quite helpful in unifying the various feuding camps within the party. Although resolution of internal conflict within a political party is ideally the responsibility of the party leadership, yet the president also has a key role to play in resolving internal party conflicts. By his show of indifference towards the running of the party, the president also contributed to the APC’s misfortunes. The president’s lack of interest in the running of the All Progressives Congress (APC) kept the party in autopilot mode, and this was then compounded by the lack of a Board of Trustees (BOT), and at a certain time the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the party hibernated for over two years without convening an ordinary meeting. Giving the number of times the president prepared for and participated in presidential elections prior to his electoral victory in 2015, his inability to adequately manage the fortunes of his party is a betrayal of his years of experience in mainstream Nigerian politics.
The prolonged frosty relationship between the leadership of the National Assembly (NASS) and the Presidency was a national disgrace that could have easily been avoided, had the APC been a party with a robust structural setup. With the general elections six months away, the APC is definitely going to have its hands full, fighting political battles on many fronts. With the defection of the Senate president and 15 other senators from the party, the APC is now burdened with the difficult task of retrieving the leadership of the Senate from Senator Saraki, now of the PDP, and at the same time strategising for the president’s re-election. The damage that he exit of the Senate president and his co-travelers would inflict on the president’s re-election bid should not be underestimated. Seeing how money has become an integral part of our politics, the loss of three governors to the opposition in an election season is a great one for the APC, knowing how powerful governors are and their notoriety for deploying state resources for personal electoral pursuits.
It is quite amusing how the leadership of the All Progressives Congress (APC) engages in self-deception, with claims of ‘not losing sleep’ over the political implications of losing influential members to a major opposition party. The increased level of consultations within the APC party hierarchy alone is an indication of the state of panic within the party. And, the ability of the party to carryout damage control (halting further defections and resolving pending disputes) will determine how well it recovers.
With the current political development in the country, some of the states where the president won in 2015 are gradually becoming swing states, like Benue and Kwara. The president’s poor handling of the security challenge in the Benue-Nasarawa-Plateau axis would cost him dearly politically.
The most important lesson the president should have learnt from his previous failed attempts in the 2003, 2007 and 2011 presidential elections is that no matter the large number of votes he gets from his political base in northern Nigeria, this alone cannot guarantee victory for him in a presidential election. Without his political alliance with Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the South-West in 2015, that election too would have gone the way of the three previous ones. If the ruling party continues losing political grounds to the opposition, then 2019 general elections could be so close a contest, and we might witness a presidential run-off election.
It is a well-known fact that the North-West is the president’s political stronghold, but even Buhari himself knows that the loss of Senator Kwankwaso and Governor Tambuwal to the opposition is an unfortunate political development for him in his traditional base. Since the president’s first outing in 2003, he has always enjoyed an estimated 60-85 per cent of bulk votes in the North-West. With the president’s 2.5 million votes win margin against the PDP in 2015, losing even a quarter of his previously guaranteed bulk votes in the North-West in 2019 could considerably hurt the chances of the APC; and with the PDP consolidating in other geopolitical zones, any further losses for the APC in the president’s North-West power base could prove detrimental to his electoral fortunes.
With the current political development in the country, some of the states where the president won in 2015 are gradually becoming swing states, like Benue and Kwara. The president’s poor handling of the security challenge in the Benue-Nasarawa-Plateau axis would cost him dearly politically. The loss of the Senate president and his political machinery in Kwara would also cost the APC huge votes in the State. With the exception of Niger State where the president still enjoys cult-like following, the North-Central geopolitical zone in general seems up for the grabs; it could swing either way.
However, the loss of political allies by the APC to the PDP should in no way make the latter sing songs of victory, as defections alone do not guarantee electoral victory. The PDP will for the first time in their over 19-year history go into a presidential race without the advantage of the power of incumbency. The ability of the PDP to launder its battered image and also produce a credible challenger in the presidential race would be more beneficial to their electoral fortunes, than depending solely on the number defectors joining their ranks.
As the president and his party battle the PDP for political survival, as always the usual victim of such tussle is the quality governance. Since 1999 till date, one skill our political class has failed to master is that of separating matters of governance from politics. With the National Assembly being the next battle ground for the two parties, the welfare of the Nigerian people is guaranteed to receive less attention, from now till the general elections. One major problem with Nigerian politicians is that they play too much politics and often forget why they are in government. Had politicians in government confronted the spate of killings across the nation with the same sense of urgency they put into grabbing/retaining power, the majority of those poor innocent souls lost across the nation would have still been alive today.
The emergence of a formidable ‘third-force’ candidate is desirable for our political development, sadly, as things are now, the 2019 presidential elections is likely to be a two-way horse race between the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); but as Harold Wilson said: ‘a week is a long time in politics’.
It is a no-brainer that security will be a major campaign issue during next general elections. The avoidable loss of human lives recorded under President Buhari’s watch will undoubtedly count against him and his party in the polls. All aspirants to challenge the president in the polls will make huge political capital of the current state of insecurity across the nation. Given the president’s military background, and with security being one of the cardinal points of his campaign in 2015, securing the nation shouldn’t have been a problem for his administration. From Zamfara to Benue, Nassarawa, Taraba, Kaduna and Plateau, innocent lives are being lost almost on a daily basis; all these will haunt the president in the general elections. The setback being witnessed in the fight against terrorism in the North-East is also an issue that would count against the president and his party, giving the level of confidence they had in their ability to tackle terrorism.
Although the nation is out of recession, a high level unemployment and poverty still pervades the land; and with Nigeria becoming the poverty capital of the world under president Buhari’s watch, the president’s campaign message of continuity would be a tough sell in 2019. In 2015, the president had the advantage of being generally perceived as an anti-corruption czar and a ‘converted democrat’, as such his message of change and hope resonated with the masses. Things are different now; the electorate will be more critical of electoral promises from the president and all other candidates in the race. With the manner in which the president and his party reneged on so many of their campaign promises from 2015, they will be going into the campaigns with a trust deficit challenge.
The emergence of a formidable ‘third-force’ candidate is desirable for our political development, sadly, as things are now, the 2019 presidential elections is likely to be a two-way horse race between the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); but as Harold Wilson said: ‘a week is a long time in politics’.
The large number of individuals joining the presidential race under the platform of newly registered parties is an indication of how difficult it is to have a strong consensus candidate to challenge the APC and the PDP in 2019. Those fringe political parties and their presidential aspirants stand a better chance at challenging the two most dominant political parties, only by forging alliances with like minds, because they lack the political structure and resources to do this individually. Seeing how APC and PDP have proven to be two sides of the same coin, the Nigerian electorate deserves a credible alternative to the candidates of both parties in 2019.
Yohanna Bwala is a Lagos-based environmental geologist.
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