Relying on the massive infrastructure development it had admittedly recorded in terms of roads, urban renewal and mega schools, and considering that the incumbent Governor, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola is a street-wise, grassroots mobiliser, it was expected that his All Progressives Congress (APC) political party should have an easy outing during the recently concluded Gubernatorial election in State of Osun notwithstanding the aggrieved defectors from the Party on account of the outcome of the Direct Primary considered free and fair.
In addition to massive infrastructure development, Ogbeni Aregbesola Administration had surpassed many in the country in delivering unique, visionary, pioneering milestone Social Protection Programmes and various pro-poor people initiatives in consonance with his Six-Point Integral Action Plan that have revamped the economy and yielded many fruits. For instance, under Rauf watch, Osun emerged as the State with lowest poverty incidence in Nigeria by the latest United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Reports. This fact is confirmed by the National Bureau of Statistics. Between 2010 when Governor Aregbesola reclaimed his mandate from the People Democratic Party (PDP) and 2017, Osun poverty index has dropped from 37.5% to 10.9%. At this 2018, it is the State with the lowest unemployment rate of 6.7%. Rauf Aregbesola Government has lifted over 700,000 people out of poverty. So, what went wrong with a high-flying Party with a large-looming incumbent that went confidently into the 22 September 2018 Gubernatorial election?
Firstly, confidently riding on its stated track record among other considerations, the Ruling Party in Osun, All Progressive Congress (APC) did everything, pre-election, to guarantee a level play ground for every Political Party to ensure free, fair and credible election not mindful of parties with nothing to offer but are grandmasters of process corruption and manipulations.
Secondly, whereas all is well with granting every political party access to erect billboards, post and paste campaign materials at every nook and cranny of the State, give unfiltered access to the State Broadcasting media outfit and use of big screens at major junctions in the State Capital for Political Parties sponsored campaign and adverts, it should have realised that it had to stand guard, vigilantly and firmly, in the aftermath of the massive monetisation of the Ekiti elections, with vote buying carried to a new height. Even in the face of visible evidences and the clarion call of the PDP – “dibo ko sebe, dibo ko rale” “vote and cook stew, vote and buy land” – the APC simply dismissed the emergent threat and continued to confidently bank on its manifest achievements.
It is instructive to note that while other major political parties – APC, ADP, SDP – were vigorously campaigning left, right and centres of the State, attending debates to present and canvass their programmes and manifestoes to seek for votes from the electorate, the People Democratic Party (PDP) did not. It, instead, divided the State into nine zones with formidable anchors to source for electorate with valid voters’ cards and their details such as Ward, Polling Units and telephone numbers. The work was made easier by Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) which gave out voters list to all Political Parties before the election.
A week till the evening of 21st September, PDP paid cash of N4,000 to every electorate with voter’s card who promised to vote for it on the 22nd September.
During Election
The election went on peacefully. The PDP however reached out to the electorate who could not be gotten before the election. Having voted PDP with a sign to its canvassers, the voter was paid N4,000 outside the Polling Unit. While this held sway across the State, Ede South and North were different ball games entirely.
For the purpose of convenience and clarity, this analysis will be restricted to APC and PDP. In the entire 30 Local Government Areas, APC won 15 while PDP won 12. Apart from Ede North and South, the political base of Adeleke’s PDP, the highest margin with which PDP defeated APC in the 12 LGAs is 3,799 – Irewole LGA. Osogbo LGA, the State Capital and APC Political base, with the highest Voters Register, PVC collection and accreditation, the margin with which APC defeated PDP is 8,880. In Ede North and South, the margin with which PDP defeated APC is 23,901. This was the figure APC could not neutralise despite the fact that it won majority 15 Local Governments as against PDP’s 12 Local Governments. Since the matter is in the Tribunal, it shall be established whether or not PDP legitimately got the extra-ordinary winning margin of 23,901 acclaimed votes.
At the end of the counting, PDP had 254,698 while APC had 254,345, leaving 353 difference in favour of the PDP. However, because of violence unleashed in Seven Polling Units of four Local Governments by thugs with sporadic shootings which prevented some electorate to exercise their voting rights, ballot snatching, returning officer running away with results, etc, the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) declared the election inconclusive. It was inconclusive to the extent that the difference between the two leading parties is far less than the number of votes cancelled as a result of disruption (and consequent disenfranchisement of the voters therein) – margin 353; cancelled votes 2,449. Hence, a re-run.
This situation is not peculiar to Osun. Below are some examples of rerun:
a. 2011 Anambra Senatorial Election between leading APGA and ACN with a margin of 697 against the cancelled 7,930 votes.
b. 2013 Anambra Guber Election between leading APGA and PDP with a margin of 79,754 against 113,113 cancelled votes.
c. 2015 Imo Guber Election between leading APC and PDP with a margin of 79,529 against cancelled votes of 144,715.
d. 2015 Bayelsa Guber Election between leading PDP and APC with a margin of 33,154 against 120,000 cancelled votes.
e. 2015Guber Election between leading leading APC and PDP with a margin of 41,353 and 49,953 cancelled votes.
Rerun
Seven Units in Four Local Governments affected were Ife North (Ward 10, Polling Unit 002), Ife South (Ward 7, Polling Unit 7 and Ward 8, Polling Unit 10), Orolu (Ward 8, Polling Units 1and 4; Ward 9, Polling Unit 3) and Osogbo (Ward 5, Polling Unit 17).
APC National leadership with six Governors led by the Chairman, knowing the influence wielded by Social Democratic Party (SDP)candidate in Ife Zone, flew to Ife to strike a deal of support and collaboration with Senator Iyiola Omisore. It applied same approach to an aggrieved aspirant in the APC primary, the House of Representative Deputy Speaker, Hon. Lasun Yussuf, a strong man of Orolu. Alhaji Moshood Adeoti, ADP candidate, the strongman of Iwo, who did not matter in the re-run was also visited for alliance in the re-run. With these deals, among others, APC was sure of victory.
On its part, Adeleke PDP believed its tact would fetch it victory. Apart from the Senate President, Bukola Saraki, who paid a visit to Omisore, Adeleke dynasty discouraged other PDP leaders from striking a deal with Omisore. It concentrated in buying votes as done in the 22nd September Election. It was mobilising electorate around the Polling Units where re-run would take place to Adeleke Country home in Ede to escape possible arrest as Nigeria Police had threatened to deal decisively with vote buyers and thugs who may want to disrupt the rerun. In preparation for re-run, a chieftain of PDP, Alhaji Fatai Diekola and two others – Sikiru Lawal and Adekilekun Segun -were arrested at Adewale Street, Alekuwodo, around Ward 5, Unit 17 in Osogbo while they were luring voters to take money to vote PDP.They have been subsequently charged to court by the Police.
United State (US) Consul General, F.John Bray who observed the rerun at Alekuwodo, Osogbo, from the start of the election till the end said, “The process has been credible …… I haven’t seen any vote buying here. From what I have seen so far, INEC performance is fine”.
On the re-run day, however, Special detectives from Nigeria Police arrested 16 persons parading themselves as Election Observers in a Toyota Highlander Jeep with the Registration number –KTU 681 AE on a stop and search heading to Orolu Polling Units. All the arrested had PDP membership cards in their procession. One of them is Adejare Moshood, PDP House of Representatives Aspirant in Orolu Federal Constituency. Aside this, the re-run, likes the 22nd September election went peacefully. At the end of the re-run, APC pulled 1,160 against PDP 325 votes. Having had the highest votes cast and a difference of 482 in its favour, APC was declared the winner of the September 22, 2018 Osun Governorship Election.
The clear lessons of the election must be learnt by all as the general elections approach early next year. For one, the pervading material poverty of the majority population, among who are the electorate, have made good governance a secondary consideration in election matters. Parties whose traditional stock-in-trade was ballot snatching and writing bogus results, have moved on with the ICT age and advancing template of the electoral guideline, and scientific vote buying and corrupt inducement of voters, right from party primaries as seen recently with one of the major parties, is the order of the approaching electoral dooms day.
Parties that are reliant on following through the rules while banking on integrity and achievements are all in patent trouble with those that have nothing to offer but are masters of manipulations with loads of dough. The sad reality is that however clinical the procedure is, once there is pervading poverty of the majority and a party enamoured to corruption and mindless of the rules, the people will never be able to conscientiously decide the outcome of election, especially in favour of good governance, democratic advancement and social progress. It is a challenge to all men of goodwill in and out of politics, and must be the focus of Osun election outcome analysis rather than partisan and pedestrian exchanges.
Ademola wrote in from Alekuwodo, Osogbo.
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