The victory of the opposition party, on the eve of next year’s general election, is an indicator of the complex nature of the electorate, greater awareness of the average Nigerian voter, and the changing dynamics of election management, influenced mainly by the use of technology and the social media.
As we await the festival of elections in 2023, a few polls this year have been increasingly signposting what the nature and manner of the general elections would be. The last of these off-season state elections (Anambra, Ekiti and Osun) took place last Saturday. The conduct and outcome of the just concluded Osun State gubernatorial election offer significant lessons for 2023.
Some may think otherwise, but we differ. The Yorubas of the South-West are arguably Nigeria’s most politically sophisticated nationality. They often define their interest per election and vote for it. The Osun election provides a barometer to gauge the political mood and eagerness of the electorate for drastic socio-political change in the country. Osun could well be the microcosm of the macro dynamism of the Nigerian political space.
Some are focused on the candidates and party platforms, while others are concerned about the increasing influence of the “third force”, represented by the Labour and the Accord parties. Others are concerned about the impact of intra-party feuds, the potency of incumbency, and so on.
Yet, others are keenly following how outcomes may be affected by the role of institutions such as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), security agencies, the media and, of course, independent election monitors and NGOs.
On the utilisation of technology, for example, there was a radical improvement in the deployment of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) across wards for the elections. Although there were a few technical impediments, the BVAS significantly improved the voter accreditation time and enabled an atmosphere of peace around voting areas.
This, is in addition to the enormous turnouts, has sent a strong message that our voters are imbibing the democratic culture.
One human element that has been the bane of Nigeria’s elections is rigging. The deployment of BVAS technology and electronic transmission of election results, coupled with the eagle-eyed vigilance of voters to ensure their votes count have made election rigging a bit more difficult than in the past. The era of politicians sitting at home and writing election results, irrespective of the actual voting outcomes in the field, is seemingly over.
However, vote buying is one aspect of rigging that has reared its ugly head in all the off-season elections. Osun politicians were more innovative in vote-buying than their Ekiti counterparts. Perhaps the presence of anti-corruption agencies may have reduced vote buying from the bazaar it was in Ekiti to a modest level in Osun. It is alleged that political agents from both the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) bought votes at prices ranging from N2,000 to N10,000 per vote. It is good that the security agents arrested some culprits, and it is essential to prosecute these criminals and make a scapegoat of them.
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Democracy is not for sale, and people should never be encouraged to sacrifice their future on the platter of paltry sums of N2000 to N10,000. Electorates should vote on the basis of their convictions and understanding of the qualities of the leaders they want. Although, the counter-narrative is that there is no guarantee that voters who collected money voted according to the dictates of their paymasters.
The victory of the opposition party, on the eve of next year’s general election, is an indicator of the complex nature of the electorate, greater awareness of the average Nigerian voter, and the changing dynamics of election management, influenced mainly by the use of technology and the social media. A review of some of the core lessons from the last election will suffice.
First, the effective use of technology in the election process has mitigated some human factors that create unnecessary bottlenecks in our elections. The BVAS technology worked efficiently in accrediting voters, and the electronic transfer of results helped INEC to start to upload the election results on time and in real-time. Nigerians are happy that the malfunctioning rate of the technology was insignificant and hardly impeded the election process. This efficient use of technology in the Osun election shows that INEC means business. If it works in Osun, it should work in other parts of Nigeria.
The second lesson is that rigging is becoming unpopular and may gradually belong to history in Nigerian elections. In all, it is self evident that votes are beginning to count in today’s Nigeria. The call for voters to get their PVCs is germane, and people would be more inclined to vote now, knowing that their choices matter.
We hope that this will make leaders produced from this process to be accountable to the electorate. This marks the beginning of true democracy in Nigeria – the supremacy and power of the people through balloting.
However, the progress made in tackling rigging may be undermined by the politics of financial inducement. This anomaly seemed stubbornly present even in the Osun elections, and we must urgently do something to halt it radically. We must eliminate the markets for votes.
Democracy is not for sale, and people should never be encouraged to sacrifice their future on the platter of paltry sums of N2000 to N10,000. Electorates should vote on the basis of their convictions and understanding of the qualities of the leaders they want. Although, the counter-narrative is that there is no guarantee that voters who collected money voted according to the dictates of their paymasters. Proper secret balloting in safe and secure environments take away that luxury and gives voters the opportunity to act according to their conscience .
The third lesson is that social media is essential, but the on-the-ground mobilisation of voters is still the main battlefront in politics. Social media ‘likes’ and positive commentaries will not replace actual participation by voting. All the people on social media canvassing for a candidate of their choice must “walk the talk”. They should start by getting their PVCs, mobilising people in their networks to get PVCs, and voting during the election proper.
As Nigeria’s voice and call for political and socio-economic change are reaching a crescendo, the battle line is drawn between the new kids on the political block and the oldies who have been maintaining the orthodoxy. The youths seem to be drawn to the new and fanciful political reality led by some of them to overhaul and completely take over politics, as leaders of today and tomorrow.
We cannot also underestimate the power of political structure. The weak structures of Labour Party and Accord Party may have contributed to their poor performances in the past election, although there is also the counter-narrative that if the election was about structure alone, the APC would not have lost.
Yet, fringe parties must develop and deploy political structures, networks, and systems to challenge the big two. This may however take some time to yield the expected results. Social media is an operational platform to educate, engage and mobilise followers to champion a party’s ideology and the qualities and skills of a candidate to the electorate.
Social media as a tool for mass mobilisation points at their most potent and powerful usage for political purposes. Converting social media users to voters is where the job is. Therefore, new, and small parties must be careful not to confuse the two – social media engagement and the voting exercise. The outcome of the Osun election should not discourage non-mainstream parties from pushing for a new order.
The fourth lesson is that when all institutions work effectively in delivering a free and fair election, it makes for a peaceful state with no rancour or mayhem. States with flashpoints of electoral violence must study the Osun election, putting it in within the local context and milieu, and putting together a plan to eradicate electoral violence from our political lexicon.
As Nigeria’s voice and call for political and socio-economic change are reaching a crescendo, the battle line is drawn between the new kids on the political block and the oldies who have been maintaining the orthodoxy. The youths seem to be drawn to the new and fanciful political reality led by some of them to overhaul and completely take over politics, as leaders of today and tomorrow.
Most of the older ones are sceptical of the “new songs of freedom” sung by these youths. They have been around long enough to know that reality differs from the utopian nature of mass political movements that want to change existing political platforms and power structures.
Notwithstanding this raging conflict, and we are poised to see more of it in the coming days leading up to the 2023 general elections, we are sure that the elections next year could be the “Mother of all elections” in Nigeria. If technology and human factors allow for free and fair elections, as exemplified by the Osun election, it would be hope rising for democracy and the dream of a better country. We must get it right, come 2023.
Dakuku Peterside is a policy and leadership expert.
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