The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rallied between US$43 andUS$46.62 a barrel in the last one week. It gave hope that glimmered in our hearts of a positive signal that the market may witness a bullish run in the low fifties in the fourth quarter, Q4 of 2016. It might have been cheering news for some countriesthat have been threatened by depressing oil prices. Some that have devalued their currencies and forced to austere economic measures may contemplate adjustments in higher benchmarks as they prepare for the 2017 fiscal year.
But the price jerks appeared simulated from responses of a triplicity of statementsfrom Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United States.Saudi Energy Minister, Khalid Al-Falih comment was that market forces was already doing its work and, his country was ready to do what it can to further support prices. The Energy Information Administration, EIA projects that there is a reasonable production by non-OPEC producers especially the United States that has 481 rigs deployed.
Iranian Oil Ministry was credited to have said that there was no decision yet to attend the September OPEC informal meeting in Algeria. Al-Falih’s comment coming on the heels of the September Algiers meetingwas viewed as a talk the book of what is known about the intended informal meeting.The key OPEC member’s bullish comment many believe was driven by sentiments which made dealers buy back contracts to cover their investment exposures. Watchers in the roller coaster business argue that any meeting of the cartel is mostly about production cap and believe that the Saudishave not supplied the market with excess oil does not guarantee stability.
They argue that production ceiling in OPEC is rather determined by politics than by design as talks about market stability is not bankable. Although the current OPEC Secretary General, Nigeria’s Mohammed Barkindo has been working hard to restore confidence in the petroleum cartel, OPEC has had several meetings since the oil price slump in summer 2014, the most recent being the April 2016 Qatar meeting with non-OPEC members without concrete decisions on oil freeze.
Russian Energy Minister Aleksandr Novak’s optimism last Tuesday may prop up hopes of price support when helaid credence to Al-Falih’s claims; that his country was consulting with Saudi Arabia for market stability. The Saudis may not have supplied the market with excess oil but their actions have kept a floor price of oil.
The Saudi’s conditionality in 2015 was that unless co-leading producer and oil convenient soul mate, Russia was in the production cut deal OPEC should count them out. The immediate past OPEC Secretary General Abdullah El-Badri had a shuttle to Moscow in 2014 to discuss with Russian Energy Minister on long term prospects in crude oil market price instability. Novak who consented for long term prospects of balanced market in 2016 was disappointed that the Saudis in the April 17 Qatar talks insisted of a deal only if Iran was involved; a demand he described as unreasonable.
The meeting could not come up with any decision because the Saudis wanted Iran’s presence for meaningful talks to go on. Iran which was absent at the meeting pledged support towards market restoration and stability only when she achieves pre-sanctions level of crude oil production.
Iran, the internecine rival of Saudi Arabia, was left off the hookin January 2016 via the lifting of sanctions in the nuclear power deal by the UN’s security council’s five permanent members plus Germany (P5+1). Iran until January 2016 was a petroleum dysfunctional country that is insisting on 2011 pre-sanctions oil market share near of 4million barrels per day (mmbpd) to join the group on oil freeze.
The country has not made a decision on joining the September Algiers meeting on an output cap since because the pre-sanctions production output levels may not be met by September. In December 2015 experts believed that based on tradition it was too early for the Saudis to react to oil freeze excepting co-leading producer and oil convenient soul mate, Russia was in the production cut deal; a cut then may not have significant impact on prices since the level of oil in storage was high.The situation had barely changed.
Competing non-OPEC members like Russia and Mexico that heeded to pressures for negotiations on crude oil market stability deal however expressed their frustrations at the April Qatar talks as they thought coming to Doha was to sign the oil deal rather than debating it.
The 18 OPEC and non-OPEC oil producing nations that gathered to stabilize output were from members that contribute three quarters of total world production. OPEC latest report puts global demand for crude at 94.26 million barrels per day (mbp) and the 2017 projection is 95.41 million barrels per day. OPEC current supply is 33.1mbdwith Saudi oil supplyat 10.477mbd in July.
Iran intends to increase production levels above its current 3.629mbd. Venezuela, Nigeria and Libya have reduced supply for tensions in their countries. Nigeria’s current supply is 1.5mbd as a result of militant activities.
Recent development in the dysfunctional state of Iraq is also cause for concern but Iraq brought in 4.33 million barrels per day in July.
OPEC gave an indication a fortnight ago that the U.S. and European refiners would cut runs in response to low refining cracks at a period summer driving and margins ought to be at their highest. Petrol prices have come down in the third quarter of 2016.
Global stockpiles of crude remain high especially in the OECD where inventories are over 80 million barrels a record higher than the current five-year average.
There is a crude supply that has not gone down coupled with high refined products inventories. These are the reasons why crude oil prices may be down. (OilPrice) Analysing the scenarios, ZeroHedge of OilPrice said Adam Longson’sreport indicates that the recent oil price jump was driven by traders covering bearish bets, even as market fundamentals may remain weak in the coming months.
To him tank top fears may return in the first quarter, Q1 of 2017 with the potentials of a rising U.S crude inventories. Other bearish indicators are cuts in refinery rates and a draw in global oil stockpiles this quarter, Q3. Refiners have yet to pull back on crude oil purchases and crude oil inventory builds are only starting to turn bearish in both the U.S. weekly statistics and globally. Oil gluts may continue to lower oil prices, reduce revenues and cause tighter budgets for liquid fossil fuels dependent economies.
There is a pitched battle between high cost producers whose economies were devastated by low crude oil prices and prosperous producers some of who had oil deals with perceived allies.Ashare of this confusion is desperation and risk of economic instability.
Survivals of cut now may not have significant impact on prices since the level of oil in storage including shale is high.
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