President Buhari says that Nigeria’s unity is not negotiable. He means, obviously, that Nigeria must never be dissolved and that no nation that is now part of Nigeria can ever take leave of Nigeria and become a separate country. Well, we must concede that he is saying what a Nigerian president is supposed to say. It is inconceivable that anybody who happens to be the president of any country would say that the country he presides over could break up. No way.
However, when a president says that his country’s unity is not negotiable, the world has a right to ask him what he intends to do to preserve his country as one. That question is particularly apt if the country is swaying on the verge of breaking up. Nigeria is manifestly swaying today on the verge of breaking up. There is not much of a doubt about that. One only has to take a look at the trouble spots across Nigeria to see this most clearly.
Take the Igbo South-east. Many Nigerians are used to assuming that the Igbo people are not really serious about Biafra – that the Igbo people are too attracted to (and too spoiled by) the benefits of Nigeria to act definitively to break away from Nigeria and start a separate country of their own. But, today, that assumption about the Igbo no longer stands as solid as before. The many Igbo organizations clamouring for Biafra, the increasing numbers of youths, older adults, and organizations involving themselves, and the fervour, passion and political skill they are increasingly bringing into the struggle (both at home and in the wide world), allseem to point to one probable outcome – namely, that Biafra could indeedbecome a reality someday.
Take the Niger Delta. Many Nigerians also commonly assume much the same kind of things about the peoples of the Niger Delta as they do about the Igbo. But it is critically important that we should assess the Niger Delta situation correctly. When Isaac Boro started the Niger Delta fight against Nigeria in the early 1960s, he was leading only a handful of passionate youths like himself. His chances of succeeding against the power of the Nigerian Federal Government were nil. Today, with the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA), and some other less known Niger Delta militant groups, the story is totally different. There are not many other separatist groups in the world today that command the same magnitude of weaponry and financial resources that these Niger Delta groups command. It is very little known to Nigerians that, under the amnesty programmes of succeeding federal governments, many thousands of Niger Delta youths were able to go abroad to acquire various kinds of training in weaponry, combat, and the flying of aircraft.
In short, Nigeria is being confronted in the Niger Delta today by a series of considerably capable military outfits. These boys are superior to Boko Haram in many respects – and Nigeria has been fighting Boko Haram with only little success since 2009. Also, though the North-east does feature a lot of geographical difficulties for the Nigerian military, such difficulties are minor compared with those of the Niger Delta. To attempt to subdue the Niger Delta, the Nigerian military must be ready to fight endless amphibious battles – against people who are seasoned inhabitants of the creeks, lagoons and swamplands of the Delta. It is in the light of these tough realities that President Buhari has wisely suspended military campaigns in the Niger Delta and chosen to urge various citizen groups to appeal to the Niger Delta militants for peace.
Moreover, unfortunately, if more serious war were to come, Nigeria does not now command the alliance that fought against Biafra in the civil war of 1967-70. It is no longer possible for Nigeria to amass the hordes of Middle Belt and Yoruba soldiers that won most of the victories of that civil war. The Yoruba and Middle Belt peoples have found that there is hardly any benefit for them in fighting for Nigeria. All the policies put together by the military regimes since 1970 with the support of theArewaNorh elite,all the centralization of power and resource control and its outcome in horrible poverty across Nigeria, all the federal attempts made to suppress most other peoples of Nigeria and their cultures, all the strange claims of the Arewa North elitefor sole control of Nigeria’s federal power, all the religion-based killings of Southerners in parts of the North, all the aggression against the peoples of the Middle Belt and the threats against the Yoruba and other peoples of the South, all the weird happenings ofBoko Haram and the Fulani herdsmen’s killings and destruction in the Middle Belt and the South, all the apparently perpetual strategizing to hurt the peoples of the Middle Belt and the South – all these have fragmented Nigeria beyond measure. A country of many peoples like Nigeria can only be sustained by mutual respect, by a common sincere desire to prosper together, and by a general agreement to obey the agreed rules of co-existence. Unfortunately, Nigeria has been trying hard to forge unity through the weakening (and even destroying) of its various peoples, and has been bruised through impunity after impunity. The sense of “common country” has been vitiated.
Since Buhari has said that the unity of Nigeria must remain, we must understand him to mean that he intends to take steps to mend the wounds of Nigeria in order to ensure Nigeria’s continued existence and unity. We must therefore ask him what the steps are that he intends to take. Until now, over a year since he was sworn in as president, he has said not a single word about such steps.
Countless Nigerians, from all parts of the country, have been clamouring for a restructuring of the Nigerian Federation – to the ends that viable states might be created, andthat much of the powers and resource control perversely crowded into the hands of the Federal Government be devolved to the federating units in order to empower the federating units to promote socio-economic development again, fight poverty, and restore hope to Nigeria. His answer to these demands has been that restructuring is a no-no with him – even though his election campaign promises had included restructuring as an important piece in his Change Agenda.As blood has been continually shed in most parts of Nigeria by well-trained Fulani herdsmen and foreign Libyan mercenaries all armed with highly sophisticated weapons, President Buhari has chosen not to speak to Nigeria, to explain what is happening, to elaborate what the Federal Government of Nigeria intends to do about it, and thereby to allay the fears of Nigerians. On the contrary, reports keep circulating that the Federal Government is intent on getting state governors across Nigeria to grant land for so-called “grazing reserves” for the Fulani herdsmen, even though most Nigerians are expressing fears that those grazing reserves are yet another plan aimed at hurting various Nigerian peoples. Finally, from most parts of Nigeria, the protest has been loud that President Buhari’s appointments into his government, especially his appointments into the security forces, have given undue emphasis to his North and even ignored some other parts of Nigeria, but his response has been to continue to do more of the same.
From no more than the above, it seems very unlikely that the Buhari presidency will do much to redirect Nigeria away from dismemberment or breaking up – and that would be a pity. Of course, he might intend to use force to keep Nigeria together – but, given the realities of our times, that is a step with very doubtful outcomes. And, in any case, what sort of unity can exist in a country that is kept together by wars and the military conquests of its various peoples? If it comes to that, how many Nigerian peoples, large or small, look like weaklings who will surrender perpetually to armedforce – force by either the regular Nigerian military,or force by irregular militias and Mujaheed in such as Boko Haram or the armed herdsmen and their Libyan mercenary support? No, it is to be hoped that President Buhari will yet choose other paths that can lead to sure and sustainable unity for Nigeria.
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