Nigerian election outcomes are all too easy to discern. Once one side starts crying too loudly know it has lost. On the basis of that simple test, the poor imitation of a three-year-old’s tantrums by the Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) agent, Senator Dino Melaye, was an indication of how things had gone for his principal former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.
As you read this, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), is on the verge of being formally declared winner of one of the most bitterly contested presidential elections in recent memory. His victory against the backdrop of giant odds is well nigh miraculous. The formidable forces who never wanted him to get the ticket fought him all the way to the finishing line. Yet, because it was his destiny, he prevailed.
This election would be remembered for many things, but most especially because of its stunning surprises and twists and turns. For Tinubu, what would been a perfect triumph was soured somewhat by losing his Lagos stronghold to the unheralded Labour Party (LP).
In the larger scheme of things it didn’t really matter because he wasn’t running for governor. However, such has been his grip on the state politically that it had been taken as a given that electoral contests here could only go one way. Little surprise, therefore, that his foes celebrated like they had won the World Cup.
Long after the dust would have settled many would be trying to make sense of how Peter Obi’s LP managed to pull off what PDP and other more endowed political organizations have not been able to do for more than twenty years.
The biggest error would be to ascribe this victory to some sort of superhuman effort on the part of Obi and his Labour cadres. Rather, it was the result of the perfect storm produced by a coalition of the incensed. Forces that had one thing in common – anger towards Tinubu – banded together to wreak maximum havoc.
One critical piece in the coalition was the ethnic symbolism around Obi’s candidacy. Although, he tried his best to present his bid as pan-Nigerian, Southeasterners saw in him their best opportunity of producing a president of Igbo extraction in a long while. So, backing from his kinsmen was total as has been reflected in the lopsided voting patterns across Igboland and some areas of the South-South zone. But as motivated as these voters were they couldn’t have tipped the scale on their own.
They were joined by a huge chunk of the Pentecostal Christian vote triggered by Tinubu’s strategic choice of a fellow Muslim as running mate. The unyielding rejection of the same faith ticket by the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN). While they stopped short of openly endorsing anyone, taking the politically-correct position of asking their followers to vote according to their conscience, some pastors were not so circumspect.
In the run up to polling day, leaders of some of the nation’s leading Pentecostal congregations were openly telling members what to do. Those who weren’t doing so publicly were employing blackmail on their in-house WhatsApp platforms. They made it clear that voting the Muslim-Muslim ticket was some sort of mortal sin. Many bought into such thinking as if opposing such a ticket somehow made them better Christians.
Obi understood how offended many Christians North and South were by the Tinubu and Kashim Shettima combination and he milked them religion card for all it was worth. He became a regular visitor at worship services of these mega churches, receiving raucous welcome from excited members and posing for photo-ops with their pastors. It all paid off handsomely on Election Day.
Just as devastating as the religion factor was social media. The damage done to the APC candidate didn’t just start with the campaign season. Over the last few years he has been the target of the most savage attacks sponsored by those who were less than pleased with the performance of the Muhammadu Buhari’s administration. Although, he wasn’t in government many blamed him for facilitating the president’s rise to power.
These attacks became more personal and vicious once he announced his intention to run for president. He was caricatured as the ultimate bad guy who was just grasping and power drunk. He was painted as infirm and too old for the office he sought. For many who would go on to vote on February 25 the only source of information by which they would make their voting decisions was largely fake news. While his opponents were on rampage his supporters underestimated the harm that was being done on social media. By the time they took the fight to their foes the damage was already done. Tinubu had been defined in terms his enemies wanted.
Another vital part of the coalition that pulled off the Lagos surprise were youths – many of them first time voters who were just babies when the APC flagbearer was a governor. Some of them were not even born when he was an active part of the pro-democracy movement in the 90s.
Many were part of the #EndSARS demonstrations which grounded the country two years ago. What was supposedly an anti-police brutality movement was soon turned into an anti-Tinubu action in Lagos. For many young people who took part in the demonstrations their impressions of the former Lagos State governor were shaped by that ugly episode in 2020. Unfortunately, the aggrieved from those events have been waiting to exact their pound of flesh from APC and it’s leaders in Lagos. They found common cause with others who had it in for Tinubu last Saturday.
The final component of the electoral Molotov cocktail was the twin scarcities of new naira notes and petrol unleashed against citizens inexplicably in the election season. The former which was supposedly targeted against would-be vote buyers became an agency of nationwide misery and suffering for the masses of the people. The natural reaction was to vent frustration against Tinubu and the government he installed. Many were motivated to vote against the ruling party and its candidate as punishment. Others simply elected to stay home resulting in widespread apathy and low turnout.
So was what happened during the presidential election a watershed in Lagos? Not exactly. Every election is local and the governorship and state assembly polls holding across the country on March 11 would be no different. In many states there was tactical voting which suggests that outcomes could be different in 10 days. In Lagos no one should get ahead of themselves.
For one thing, the ethnic edge would not be as pronounced. Obi isn’t running and all the candidates of the leading parties are of Yoruba extraction. Religion also wouldn’t be a factor as the Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, is at the head of a balanced ticket.
Of course, those who gave APC a bloody nose last weekend would love to do it all over. But in pulling their surprise they delivered a wake-up call to the ruling party. That’s why I doubt whether thunder would strike in the same place twice come the next polling day.
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