The PIA and MTNDP documents reveal how beholden our policymakers are to crude oil and gas and primary agriculture. Have they not read such authoritative books as that written by our very own Professor Kingsley Moghalu, Emerging Africa? There are other books that have given a diagnosis of why we remain poor, one by Erik Reinert, How Rich Countries Got Rich… And Poor Countries Stay Poor! The two books gave the same reasons and, in a nutshell, it is a lack of transition to complex goods production for export. To buttress this diagnosis, Prof. Oyelaran Oyeyinka, in his article published in The PUNCH newspaper, January 3, 2022, gave a comparison between Malaysia and Nigeria’s global trade. In 2020, Nigeria shipped $33.5 billion goods abroad, mainly crude oil, while the 33 million people of Malaysia shipped $234 billion mostly non-oil high-value exports.
Going through the MTNDP Draft document I saw the production of complex goods mentioned once, more or less like an afterthought. For another example, let’s turn to page 31 of the document. Here a strategy for the culture, tourism and creativity industry is highlighted. The plan states that MDAs capacity will be boosted… to identify commercial opportunities in the creative sector…” MDAs in the creative sector? Sounds like an oxymoron. Which of the MDAs fathered Nollywood, the second largest film industry in the world by output?
There appears to be a lot of micromanagement along MDA lines such that you can follow the input of each ministry or agency in the MTNDP 2021-2025 document. Meanwhile, history teaches us that packaged water, from pure sachet water to bottled or table water, was sprung on the nation by enterprising individuals. Neither was smelting scrap metals into iron rods, a baby of the Ministry of Steel. Let us encourage many business ideas to grow and blossom with government agencies getting out of the way!
Our developmental challenge is cut out for us and the MTNDP has failed to key into it. Let us simply identify what we have left undone and get it done. After all, these NEEDS, SIP, ERGP, ESPs and, now, MTNDP are not what delivered the largest economy in Africa. If anything, what Nigeria needs now is for the private sector to use think tanks to fashion for us their own plan. We are told there was private sector contribution in the making of the plan but from the draft introducing the plan to the larger populace, one can’t see much of such input. We require an authentic action plan from the organised private sector rather than this ‘government plan.’
Need for an ideological overhaul of our planning ministry: There were ideological debates about whether there was a need for a nation to have Development Plans or ‘Industrial Policy.’ The debate went along the socialism/communism versus capitalism divide. With the early successes of the centrally planned Soviet Union, industrial policies planning had the day. But there are drawbacks and unintended consequences of such policies that developmental purists should guard against.
These include the possibility of stifling innovation in an economy and also putting limitations on what enterprising young people or businessmen can do. In recent times, we witnessed a clash between our two foremost industrialists as regards the interpretation of Nigeria’s Sugar Policy. If this can happen to a Samad Rabiu, what chance does a neophyte in business have?
There is also an inevitable lapse into over-regulation that also stifles an economy. Mature economies with high per capita GDP can afford the luxury of high regulations while low-income countries cannot. All these and more must be considered when foisting policies, plans, or acts on the country. To circumvent these downsides I believe lawmakers in Nigeria should also have a sunset clause in laws that have to do with the economy. Bureaucrats should be aware of these drawbacks and limitations so we do not dovetail into a planned socialist economy.
With a price tag of N348 trillion given the MTNDP one is not certain we have not crossed this rubicon. Also apportioning who spends what between the private and public sectors gives an impression that our economy for the next four years has all been worked out to the last kobo. This is pure gallery playing and the take over of the roles of entrepreneurs and markets by central planners.
My conclusion is that we have a philosophical dilemma on our hands as elucidated by Friedrich Hayek in his book Road to Serfdom. Prof Moghalu rightly wrote in his book, Emerging Africa, that we have foundational issues to sort out about our economy. Some of these fundamental issues bother on psycho-cultural issues of who we really are and why some plans work elsewhere but are doomed to failure in Nigeria.
For now, we are stuck with MTNDP 2021-2025 document and, to live with it, I suggest it is viewed as the base or lowest rungs; climbing the ladder to higher rungs is left to you and I and budding serial entrepreneurs, not the government. Unfortunately, designers of this defective plan want continuity regardless of political changes (pg.14 of the draft document). This will be calamitous as they suggest they intend to ‘adopt measures that will prevent disruptions… due to change in government. They really do believe they are doing right by us!
Olugbenga Jaiyesimi can be reached via 08123709109; jerry3jaiye@gmail.com
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