The world heaved a collective sigh of relief when local liberation forces, backed by a United States-led coalition, recently routed the Islamic State terrorist group from the last sliver of territory it held in Syria. Five years of apocalyptic scale terror and its “caliphate” came to its inevitable end in the village of Baghouz, near the River Euphrates, freeing all of Syrian territory of the terrorist occupants, just as Iraq had been in December 2017. However, Nigeria cannot afford to join in the muted celebration: rather it must quickly rout its own home-grown terror group and prepare resolutely for possible targeting of its territory by fleeing global jihadists.
ISIS’ defeat as a territorial power holds valuable lessons for Nigeria and its leadership. It reminds us that a terror group seizing and laying claim to sovereign land can, and should, be defeated by a combination of strong political will, a matrix of strategic military, intelligence and diplomatic engagement, local resistance, as well as by welcoming hands-on international support. All these were in evidence, first in Iraq, where coalition-backed Iraqi armed forces and assorted militias erased the caliphate and, lately, in Syria. Far from being the extinction of ISIS and its off-shoots, however, this signals its return to its primary franchise of random acts of terror around the world by fleeing jihadists and sleeper cells, and its seeking of new, fertile grounds as territorial strongholds. Nigeria must do everything possible to avoid becoming host to the rump of ISIS in the North-East region, where it is battling Boko Haram or elsewhere in the North.
In announcing the clearing of Baghouz, a corner of eastern Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces, the Kurdish-led militia that spearheaded the five-year struggle against ISIS, described it as a victory for the whole world, “total elimination of the so-called caliphate” and “complete territorial defeat” for the terrorists.
Evicting Boko Haram should be Nigeria’s first priority as in the Middle-East; from its eruption in 2014 as a territory-grabbing “state,” ISIS lasted only five years. But in Nigeria, Boko Haram has remained a malignant tumour since 2009, 10 years! True, it has been degraded from its caliphate, declared in 2015 from Gwoza, Borno State and once spanning 27 local government areas across Borno, Yobe and Adamawa states, but the United States Military Africa Command says it still holds some territory. President Muhammadu Buhari should rejuvenate the war and, instead of vainly claiming victory, remodel the intelligence agencies, harness greater international assistance, including air support and boots-on-the-ground, while shaking up the military by replacing faltering field commanders.
Apart from providing air cover, with hundreds of bombing sorties, there are still up to 2,000 US troops backing the SDF, 400 British forces and other troops from NATO countries. Even more formidable support, including air strikes and drones that killed senior ISIS figures, was crucial in expelling ISIS from Iraq. We need to secure such support; we need drones to locate and take out ISIS commanders, depots, camps and convoys. Mali hosts over 2,000 French troops, Czech Special Forces trainers and some US commandos. Our neighbour, Chad, according to a New York Times report, hosts a clandestine AFRICOM drone base and Special Forces unit.
International jihadism is chameleonic; when dislodged from a redoubt, they disperse and melt into the populace waiting for an opportunity to strike with random acts of terror. Ominously, they regroup and seek favourable territories from where they recruit, train and impose their warped version of salafi Islam. The Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, recommends that African countries should also address grievances that extremists like to exploit as dislodged ISIS fighters and ideologues could relocate to ungoverned, loosely governed or captured territories in Nigeria’s North-East region as launch pad for their global operations. Already, jihadists dislodged from Tunisia, Algeria and Islamists from Libya, Mali and Touaregs from the Sahel are destabilising Burkina Faso, Niger Republic and Chad.
The threat to Nigeria is real: in a rare deference to reality, Nigerian commanders have admitted encountering foreign jihadists on the field and welcomed additional training and support from NATO and other countries. They should go the whole way: the resurgence of Boko Haram, featuring attacks on military forts, checkpoints and ordnance depots recalls the ISIS onslaught that overwhelmed division-sized Iraqi Army units that swelled the terrorist army’s armoury and enabled it to carve out 34,000 square kilometres of territory for its nefarious “caliphate.”
Nigeria should step up diplomatic efforts: given the magnitude of the Boko Haram threat, the aid we currently receive is paltry. The US is providing $100 million to Burkina Faso to combat terrorism over the next two years; $242 million to the other members of the G5 Sahel countries — Niger, Mali, Chad and Mauritania. Syria is to receive $300 million from the US, Saudi Arabia and others. The military must clean up its human rights record to clear the way for such sorely-needed Western financial and military aid. Critical gaps in the war on terror identified in a US State Department report include poor intelligence gathering and coordination, poor deployment of technology and inter-service rivalry. Buhari should plug these holes.
Denying jihadists safe havens demands that the battle for hearts and minds be stepped up: there should be better funding, equipping and training for the Civilian Joint Military Task Force who have played a major role in fighting Boko Haram but have paid a heavy price in lives and limbs. Just like the Kurds and local Arab militia, as people familiar with the contested territories, played pivotal roles in evicting ISIS from Syria and Iraq, so should we give locals greater role in reclaiming their own land.
The urgent task before Buhari and the security agencies is to crush Boko Haram quickly, secure the North-East against infiltrators, rebuild the region with international assistance, apprehend and prosecute terrorists, their sponsors and supporters.
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