President Muhammadu Buhari deserves credit for degrading Boko Haram’s ability to fight, by reclaiming Sambisa Forest, by destroying their military base there, and by pushing the sect’s remnants into occasional suicide bombers, attacking mainly soft targets. The battle against Boko Haram over Sambisa Forest may have been won, but nearly 200 girls are still missing almost three years after their abduction.
The missing girls apart, it is doubtful if the war against insurgency could ever be won, because the root factors behind insurgencies in Nigeria – religion, ethnicity, economic inequality, and nationalist aspirations – will never go away. Ultimately, the solution lies in nothing less than a consensus, the like of which two national conferences have sought to build in the last 12 years. Given the spate of agitations from different parts of the country, based on one or more of these factors, it behoves any government seeking a permanent solution to work towards a consensus.
Unfortunately, there is nothing on the ground at the moment that points towards consensus building. The Presidency and the National Assembly are not on the same page on major issues. One section of the country or the other is agitating for one thing or the other. One faction within each of the major political parties is plotting against the other. It is as if the country is at war with itself and within itself.
The defeat of Boko Haram is only one of the six major security threats Buhari needs to surmount. The second is the herdsmen-farmers clashes, which escalated after he came into office. Today, Benue State has become the typical theatre of the clashes. Since Buhari came into office, over 1,000 people have died in one or the other of these clashes in Benue State alone and many more have been displaced from their homeland.
The administration has so far adopted ad hoc solutions to these clashes, by sending the police or the military to affected communities, usually after the clashes. Then, the clashes go into remission, only to resurface after the security officials have left the communities. Knowing full well that the cause of the clashes is basically economic –cattle rearers want to graze their cattle, while farmers want to protect their land and crops – it is unclear why this administration thinks that security officials can solve the problem by simply appearing after the innocent local farmers and land owners have been killed and displaced.
The third security issue is the continued agitation for economic and social justice by Niger Delta militants by whatever name they have chosen to call themselves. To be sure, bombing pipelines is not the best way to signal their discontent with the government, but their agitation, no matter how it is expressed, cannot be ignored, just as the effects of their action on the nation’s revenue cannot be ignored. Anyone who has been to Ogoniland, for example, will understand the true nature of the havoc done to local communities by oil companies in the Niger Delta. True, this administration is committed to cleaning up the Niger Delta of oil spills and debris, it must find ways to listen to the militants and do something about the plight of the people of the Niger Delta.
Closely related to the agitation by the Niger Delta militants for economic justice is the agitation for self-determination by various groups in the South-East part of the country, which makes the fourth major security issue. Their noise may not make sense to some listeners, and it may not spread beyond their zone’s borders, but it does make sense to the noisemakers themselves. Whatever the motive is for their agitation, it deserves attention, not outright dismissal.
The fifth security issue is the repeated killings and reprisals in Kaduna and Plateau states. The poisonous mix of religion and ethnicity makes the killings in both states even more problematic than the straightforward herdsmen-farmers clashes over grazing land in Benue State.
The sixth security problem is the random kidnapping for ransom, a practice which originated in the Niger Delta but has now spread throughout the country. The kidnapper’s targets vary from politicians and businessmen to their parents and relatives; from pastors to church members; and from teachers to schoolchildren. They have asked for ransoms ranging from a few million to over a billion naira.
On the surface, it would appear that each of these security problems could be contained with the right solution. The problem is that they all require different solutions. Nevertheless, four factors are critical to all the solutions.
First, it should be understood that whether they are marauding herdsmen, militants, or kidnappers, they are all agitating for something. In order to fully appreciate where the various agitators are coming from and what they are agitating for, the government has got to listen to them directly or indirectly. Their problems cannot be solved if the nature of the problems and the desired solutions are not fully understood.
Second, the damaged economy should be repaired so that as many youths as possible can obtain gainful employment. This means that the government should pay more attention (1) to the diversification of the economy, (2) to the development of infrastructure to boost investment and industrialisation, and (3) to the enhancement of the educational system. Fortunately, revamping the economy is one of the three major planks during Buhari’s presidential campaign. Unfortunately, however, not much has changed nearly two years down the road.
Third, the pace of governance has to be much faster. It appears that the batteries working the national clock need to be recharged. This is not simply a question of reshuffling the cabinet. That alone may not solve the present problems. The ministers have to have specific targets and funds have to be released for them to meet those targets. Various vacant positions have to be filled with the right personnel so that the people’s work can get done.
Finally, this government needs a think-tank. There appears to be no intellectual or conceptual base for the government’s actions. There are far too many contradictions. There are zig-zag movements over various issues and problems. No one is really sure about what to expect tomorrow. What kind of change does the government want to achieve, how, and when? What are the alternative solutions to specific national problems and which ones could our present financial situation support? Why has the standard of education fallen so low in the country, and what can be done to reverse the trend? Which group is thinking through these questions outside government that could provide the necessary feedback to the government?
Punch
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