A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about the factors that would likely inhibit General Muhammadu Buhari from occupying Aso Rock in June. The reaction I got surprised me. People I had not heard from in a long while called to register their views.
And if their comments are anything to go by, then it’s safe to say that President Jonathan still has a lot of sympathisers in the middle and upper echelons of the society. The comments online also went on and on and at a stage I had to stop reading.
Vanguard later listed the article as one of the most commented upon news items of the day with comments reaching as high as 300.Most of the comments were emotional and illogical; some were abusive; but we still had quite a few that put good arguments across on both sides. A couple of people actually challenged me to flip the coin and write about the factors against Jonathan. I am rising to that challenge today.
Many of the factors listed against Buhari can also in truth, be used against Jonathan. Some of these are religious and geo-political factors. Then there are the political and sectional interest groups, the scavengers who believe it will be their turn to ‘make it’ with an APC government. Then of course, the kingmakers who pretend to act in the national interest, but in truth serve to perpetuate the elite interest of wealth appropriation. They might decide that they have had enough of Jonathan and move against him.INEC also, if it decides to be a biased umpire.
Now we come to specifics. Most incumbents all over the world rerun on the strength of their achievements in the first term. Many swim or sink on the scale of what they promise and what they deliver. Fashola of Lagos State was a clear example of that in recent times. Whatever is said about him, there is no doubt that he took governance seriously and when he ran foul of his godfather, it was the magnitude of his achievements that stood him in good stead.
It is curious therefore that the Jonathan administration has not harped on its promises and achievements. Is it because they are more of disappointments than achievements? Or at best over hyped deliverables? He promised for example, to makepower failure a thing of the past by 2015. My generator tells me he has not delivered on that.
He promised to solve youth unemployment. The teeming youths on the streets tell a different story. He promised to change the way governance had been and promote transparency. The gap between the very rich and the very poor and the oil subsidy scam are unsavoury testimonies of his performance. Then the hyped achievements; the administration claimed to have delivered 20,000 kilo-meters of roads. It didn’t say however if they were new roads or resurfaced ones. I don’t travel much on Nigerian roads and so can’t really confirm the veracity of the claims.
But last October, I spent eight hours to get to Ibadan instead of an hour. This road is listed as one of his major achievements. Much has been said about our airports; but none is befitting of the largest economy in Africa as none even now, is among the best ten in Africa. As for the trains, we all know what a modern train is capable of. Can any progressive describe what we have now as belonging to the 21st century? As for the universities, not one despite the score that has been added, rates among the first twenty in Africa. One would expect a PhD holder to know that a building does not a university make. The point is made by now I think, that his performance is a factor against him.
Most incumbents are also judged by how they react to crises. Or out of the norm events that require courage or moral leadership. President Bush senior was acclaimed for his international handling of the Iraq/Kuwait crisis for example. President Clinton also got good ratings for the way he handled the 9/11 crisis while President Bush junior got a got a thumps down for the way he handled the New Orleans flood crisis. Will the handling of Boko Haram crisis give Mr Jonathan a plus or a minus?
Finally, the biggest challenge for Mr Jonathan will be the economy and it is not peculiar to him alone. A lot of heads of governments have been swept aside on account of their nations’ economy. The popular refrain all over the world seems to be ‘is your life better now than it was four years ago?’ Gordon Brown, George Bush Snr, and even the Republican Party were all swept aside on account of the down turn in the economy under them while Obama got re-elected because of the upward swing in the US economy.The phrase ‘Osama is dead and General Motors is alive’ resonated well with the electorate.
The Nigerian economy is in a bad shape and it is likely to get worse because nobody is doing anything to arrest the situation. The government is either in denial or it is lying to us because money is being spent on the election as if there is no tomorrow. Meanwhile, jobs are already being lost and more will be lost. The social media is awash with stories of multinationals laying off staff in tens and hundreds. The Naira is weakening by the day. Poverty is rising almost by the second. Everywhere you look, it is bleak with the only bright spot being agriculture which really has not translated into cheaper food. The leadership cannot absolve itself from blame; first because the buck stops there and second because it had ample warning.
A friend said that corruption is not just the main problem afflicting Nigeria, it is the only problem. I tend to agree because in Nigeria, if you fix corruption you will fix the economy.Only a blindfolded fool will say that the economy does not need to be fixed. It is likely from June, after the election would have been won and lost, that any attempt to fix the economy will start. Import Duty will likely increase as will Value Added Tax. Other creative forms of taxation will also be found in order to shore up the revenue base. Will the revenue be used to feed the ravenous appetite of the executives and their friends or will it flow to where it is really needed? Your guess is as good as mine.
But I am getting ahead of myself. We are talking March 28 and the factors against Jonathan. Like Bill Clinton’s team told George Bush Snr during the US presidential campaign ‘It’s the economy stupid”.
– See more at: http://www.vanguardngr.com/2015/03/main-factor-against-jonathans-re-election/#sthash.adR5X6TZ.dpuf
Sir you hit the nail right on its head but you didn’t nail it into the wood fully, reason, gej said we are sorry they are not corrupt but thieves because what else are we going to say when gej said his people steal and stealing is not corruption. What about the immigration saga, stella oduah’s aviation and him playing ostrich with the chibok girl’s issue e.t.c. It is well.
Its unfortunate that Nigerians are still seriously sick of Tribal and Religious sentiment but If our vote can be counting , we ll surely get out of the problem. Nigeria needs a leader with vision that can put a very good structure and control in place; that will make the position of leadership less attractive to the corrupt leaders and give the right people chance to lead well so that Nigerians can follow well. We are law abiding pple, all we need is somebody that believe Nigeria can great again and that can change our mentality that stealing is not the right way to make money.