Ask people who are in the midst of an all-out civil war, and they would tell you that the worst thing is a prolonged stalemate. It is like a nightmare from which they can’t wake up.
If the civil war is strictly domestic, there is a good chance it would peter out within a reasonable time. At least one side typically becomes dominant and contain the war to a corner of the country, thus sparing much of the country the full agony.
That is the situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo, more rhythmically known as Congo Kinshasa. Not counting the intermittent skirmishes during the long reign of de facto Emperor Mobutu Sese Seko, that country has been under civil war since 1997. With an area of more than 900,000 square miles, Congo is one of the largest countries in the world. So, its civil war theatres have usually been confined to particular provinces.
Not so the Middle Eastern country of Yemen. With an area of just under 204,000 square miles, it is a relatively small country. So, its all-out war since 2015 has consumed much of the country. As many as 100,000 have reportedly died from the conflict. And those who have survived so far face starvation, as famine rages all over the country.
The major battle line is between the government and Houthi rebels. In between are myriad militias whose loyalty is best left to a sophisticated algorithm. And then there is the bigger picture of Iran and Saudi rivalry.
Iran is the shadowy supporter of the Houthi, who earlier on took control of the Northern provinces of Yemen. When in March 2015 they pushed southward the southern port of Aden, the Saudis and their allies stepped in with aerial bombardment.
For those familiar with the Saudi monarchy’s distaste for international armed conflicts, this came as a surprise. At the time, I had a Saudi post-graduate student in my class. So, I asked him what changed. More than the rivalry with Iran, it was the ascendance of Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, he said. The young prince jettisoned the temperance of his predecessors for a muscular approach.
The Saudi intervention succeeded in stalling the Houthi advance, but they still control much of eastern Yemen, including the capital city, Sana’a. Meanwhile, the people are dying from bombardments, bullets, and starvation. So, for the past few years, the situation has been described as the worst humanitarian disaster in the world.
Redline in Libya
The situation in Libya is eerily similar. The country has been in pieces since a US-backed armed uprising forced out and ultimately killed long-term strong man Muammar Gaddafi. Like Yemen, Libya’s primary fault line is between the weak UN-backed government in Tripoli and the rival government of General Khalifa Hifter.
Then throw in a hodgepodge of militia that ally with the ostensible government or its rival. Oh, there is also the opportunistic Islamic State, which exploits every national turmoil in the Middle East to take control of territories.
Unlike Yemeni’s Houthi, Hifter’s forces don’t control Libya’s capital city, Tripoli, but they control much of eastern and southern Libya. In fact, last year, they were at the verge of taking over Tripoli in the northeast before Turkey intervened to halt Hifter’s advance.
Peace deals have repeatedly fallen apart and negotiations have often failed from the beginning. That was the fate of UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres’ peace mission to Libya last year during which he met with Hifter.
“I am leaving Libya with heavy heart and deep concern,” the Associated Press quotes Guterres as saying. “I still hope, if possible, to avoid armed confrontation around Tripoli. The United Nations remains available to facilitate any political solution.”
Mercifully, the battle for Tripoli never took place, with all the potential for horrendous bloodshed. With Turkey’s support, the Libyan government turned the tide against Hifter’s forces. Now they are the ones in retreat, as government forces and allied militia push to recover lost territories.
But that doesn’t foreshadow an end to the civil war. Though the Tripoli-based government is formally recognised by the UN, Hifter has major international backing. Among them are Egypt, Russia and even EU’s France.
So, now it is Egypt that has drawn a line in the sand, warning the Turkey-backed government forces not to try to take the coastal city of Sirte. Besides being Gaddafi’s place of birth, Sirte is a strategic city that marks the dividing line between Libya’s East and West. More important, it is in proximity of Libya’s oil fields.
In the vacuum created by Gaddafi’s ouster in 2015, the Islamic State quietly took over Sirte, raised their flag on buildings, and began to enforce their brand of Islamic law. It took much aerial bombardment by the US the following year before the Libyan government finally took over the city. Then Hifter’s forces took it over a few years later. Dizzying, right?
Now there is a war of words between Egypt and Turkey that could possibly degenerate into a war of swords. After issuing the Sirte ultimatum, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi called for a negotiated settlement. Hifter’s commanders themselves have claimed that they tactically withdrew their forces to give a negotiated settlement a chance.
But Turkey has scoffed at the gestures. In a press conference, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu accused Hifter of scuttling past peace proposals and responding with aggression. “He’s losing, he’s doomed to lose,” Cavusoglu said. “It’s impossible for him to win. He had an opportunity for a political process. He lost that as well.”
But that is probably quite a bit of bravado. Having publicly warned the Turkish-led troops not to breach Sirte, it is improbable that Egypt’s General Sisi would look the other way if that happens. And he has Russia, France and a number of other countries to count on.
What it all means is that the Libyan people have to brace themselves for an even greater conflagration. If reason doesn’t soon prevail, Libya will supplant Yemen as the country facing the greatest humanitarian tragedy.
END
Be the first to comment