Given that the governorship elections in Kogi and Bayelsa states marked the first set under President buhariari and the new INEC chairman, their outcome was bound to attract considerable public interest. This is more so with the peaceful transition of the last general election. Before that election, fears were high that its outcome could dismember this country as sharp cleavages with religious and ethnic tinge dominated the language of political discourse.
But that gloomy political atmosphere was to peter out when the election (though not without its shortfalls) came out largely successful culminating in the epochal defeat of a sitting president. The significance of that landmark event for democracy in Nigeria has since been chronicled by world leaders. With that success, expectations have been high that free and fair electoral conduct which had been the albatross of this country is beginning to take root.
As both elections approached early in the life of the Buhari regime, public expectations were high that the mileage gained from the last general election would lead to a seamless outcome. Ironically, that expectation has failed to materialize as events from both polls have unmistakably shown. Both were declared inconclusiveness on account of electoral violence and sundry malpractices which prevented voting in some of the areas.
In Kogi, elections did not hold in 91 polling units of 18 local government areas due to electoral infractions ranging from vandalism, snatching of electoral materials and outright violence. Though the APC was clearly leading the PDP with a margin of 41,253 votes, INEC declared the election inconclusive on the ground that the total number of registered voters in those polling units which stood at 49,953 was higher than that with which the APC led its rival. In its calculations, the remaining votes could still alter the pattern of electoral victory. It was for this reason which is in keeping with aspects of the electoral law that saw to the declaration of the election inconclusive.
Opinions were sharply divided on the position of the electoral body. This is more so given that the universally accepted ratio of the actual votes cast vis-à-vis the total number of registered voters is put at about one third. What this implies is that the remaining votes may not substantially alter the winning pattern. And this came to pass when the final results of the re-run were put together. The APC had 6,885 of the votes while the PDP garnered 5,365. This figure is even less than one third of the remaining votes for which the election was declared inconclusive.
Events of the botched elections in those polling units were to become the albatross of the Kogi election. INEC has been blamed for the pass in the Kogi polls on two fronts. It takes liability for observed shoddy preparations and for not declaring the result of the election when it was clear that the remaining votes cannot substantially turn the tide against the winning party.
Even then, it would also appear the electoral body was playing safe given the penchant by our politicians to take advantage of any error of omission or commission to accuse it of skewing the process to the advantage of the ruling party. It is obvious it ordered the re-run to fulfill all righteousness. This point cannot also be discounted as there is precedence to back it up.
But the violence and bad management of the election in Kogi is just a child’s play when paired with events of the governorship election in Bayelsa State. Reports spoke of sporadic shooting by armed militias in some areas especially in the southern Ijaw local government resulting in the killing of about five people. As a result, elections could not hold there. Curiously despite informed advice not to hold the election the following day because of the level of violence of the previous day, INEC went ahead with the election.
The outcome of that error of judgment turned out disastrous. The electoral body had to cancel the election much later on the ground that it was substantially marred by violence, ballot snatching, intimidation and other irregularities. But that was after protests had erupted in the state capital accusing it of trying to manipulate the exercise taking advantage of the high level of insecurity in the area. How the electoral body and the security agencies came to the conclusion that free and fair elections were possible under that high level of insecurity in a state notorious for deadly militants, remains curious. But events have proved their decision futile.
Not unexpectedly, that judgmental error has been largely responsible for the recrimination going on between the APC and the PDP with each seemingly claiming victory. The PDP said, having won in six out of the seven local governments where results have been declared, it has satisfied the requirements for electoral victory. The APC on its own says it has also obtained 25 per cent of the votes in two thirds of the local governments and wants the results of southern Ijaw which it expects to turn the tide in its favour to be declared.
What the position of the APC implies is that if the result of the southern Ijaw council was declared, it would have garnered substantial votes to turn electoral victory in its favour. We shall demonstrate the possibility of this claim by critically appraising the pattern of votes scored by the parties in the seven local governments that have been so far declared.
In Brass, APC had 21,755 votes against 6,516 by the PDP while in Sagbama PDP had 28,934 as against 5,382 by the APC. In Yenegoa, PDP scored 24,258 while the APC had 14,563. These three local governments recorded the highest number of votes in the election. In the remaining four local governments, the margin was narrow even as the PDP led in all of them.
But the wide margin of votes in Brass and Sagbama can be understood. The APC candidate hails from Brass while that of PDP is from Sagbama. Going by the votes in the two local governments of the candidates, whereas the PDP got nearly one third of the votes in Brass, the APC could not secure that in Sagbama.
If this statistics does not clearly underscore the relative strengths of the parties, the case of Yenagoa where the cumulative votes of the two parties stood at 39,821 despite its voting strength of 132,025 says it all. The total score of the two parties represents barely one third of the total number of registered voters.
Southern Ijaw which has a voting strength of 120,827 comes second after Yenagoa. With barely one third of the total voting strength taking part in the Yenagoa poll and the margin of votes recorded in the other local governments, it stands to be imagined the kind of difference the southern Ijaw poll will make in the overall calculations of the final results. It will be a huge surprise if it turns the tide of the election outcome.
So it is not just a matter of bandying claims to electoral victory. The facts on the ground speak for themselves. INEC should move fast and set a new date for election to be held in southern Ijaw after adequate security to guarantee free and fair polls have been put in place.
Beyond these, INEC has disappointed the nation in its handling of the two elections. If it could perform so abysmally in two isolated elections, we shudder at what the situation will turn out during general elections. But the role of security agencies during elections and the desperation of politicians to win at all costs have become serious issues that will make or mar our attempts to institutionalize democracy on these shores.
NATION
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