It Is Not Over Yet…Ayisha Osori

We are far from being done, even though it feels like we are. It is a huge relief and a boost to our morale and sense of accomplishment that the conduct, outcome and acceptance of the presidential election have beaten the dire predictions of friends and watchers. Election tension has eased considerably and there is a relaxed atmosphere even though the April 11 and elections are less than a week away.

However, we are being premature in letting down our guard; the positions we will be voting on next Saturday are just as important as the presidential and federal legislature elections.

All the change we say we want cannot and will not come from the top or the centre alone. While leadership is fundamental and sets the tone for effective followers and creating an enabling environment for even better leaders to evolve within strong institutions, change also needs to come from us, from the states, from the local governments and from the political parties.

Voting in the best possible governors and state legislators is crucial for the change Nigeria needs and the results of the March 28 elections indicate that there are considerations for voters, candidates and political parties as we head to the polls.

First, there is room for improving voter turnout and reducing invalid votes. While the voter queues looked impressive the average nationwide was 47 per cent. Whether caused by fair, foul or indifferent means, the states with the lowest turn out of voters (comparing accredited voters to registered voters) were Lagos (28%), Borno (30%) and Abia (32%). Although there are exceptions, typically where elections are split, presidential elections have the highest turn out. In 2011, Abia had 80% turnout for the presidential elections and 53% for gubernatorial while Imo had 84% and 45% respectively. One would presume that on April 11 the candidates in hotly contested gubernatorial races will want as many voters as possible turning up; this will not happen without a concerted plan to encourage voters to turn up. Unfortunately restrictions on movement that accompany elections in Nigeria prevent candidates from incentivising voters by providing free transport for the indigent and elderly. However, getting volunteers to knock on doors on election day and encouraging people to come out to vote without campaigning for any party might make a difference.

The second is the possibility of wide scale violence on Saturday. We dodged the bullet with the presidential election because of the three million plus votes between the two main contenders and the honourable concession of President Goodluck Jonathan. But if the reading of the tea leaves is any indication, the gubernatorial elections will be fierce in Kaduna, Rivers, Lagos and Akwa Ibom. Particularly since PDP has openly admitted to wanting to extend its control from 21 to 24 states – this means Imo, Abia, Taraba and Adamawa will also be hotly contested because of the strengths of the candidates and what the states have come to symbolise for the parties.

As much as we applaud INEC for introducing processes that improve the transparency of our notoriously incredible elections, the third consideration for the April 11 elections is that ballot manipulation is not yet a thing of the past. The dust raised in Rivers and Akwa Ibom over missing results sheets, the above average voter turn out in some states e.g., 70% in Rivers and the extremely lopsided voting patterns that saw candidates scoring 91% of the votes in Bauchi or 96% in Anambra and Delta mean that we cannot pat ourselves on the back about ‘free and fair’ elections’. There is still more work to be done – particularly with the selection of Resident Electoral Commissioners and providing checks on their powers. While some of these loopholes cannot be addressed before the next round of elections, political parties and candidates can assert more control over the process by studying INEC’s 2015 electoral guidelines and noting provisions such as Section 6(a) which reads “A political party sponsoring a candidate may by notice appoint a representative at each point of distribution of electoral materials in the constituency where it is sponsoring candidate(s) for an election.” This seems to imply that political parties have a right to witness the distribution of election material, which presumably includes the almighty result sheets.

Finally, getting it right in the states and state assemblies is vital to sustainable change – all the change cannot and will not be driven from the centre. All the most critical issues around this campaign i.e., corruption, insecurity and the economy cannot be addressed without fundamental reforms to our judiciary, legislature and civil services and for this the state executives and legislatures should be on board.

Friends and protectors of democracy cannot relax now. As we draw close to the finishing line for the seven-month marathon we’ve been running, we must not falter with premature celebrations. It is not over yet.

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