If you did not see my column last week, it was because I did not want to rain on anyone’s parade. I wanted the euphoria over the bullet we missed by avoiding the riots that would have ensued had the APC been defeated to subside. But I am now back to tell you that the presidential election was a big INEC rigmarole. Long before Jonathan lost the election to Buhari, he had been defeated by the machinations of Jega and INEC.
As a matter of fact, General Buhari did not win this presidential election: President Jonathan lost it. The president lost because he allowed himself to be defeated. Maybe he did not want to remain in power badly enough. Or maybe there was a side of him that felt there is honour in being the first incumbent president to lose an election in Nigeria. Whatever the case; he failed to heed the warning of many that, like Aminu Tambuwal and Lamido Sanusi, Attahiru Jega was working for the enemy.
Failure of Tinubu
With the coalition of Bola Tinubu’s ACN and Buhari’s CPC, many concluded that the outcome of the 2015 presidential election would be determined in the South-West. The assumption was that Tinubu would provide the killer-punch that had been missing in Buhari’s earlier failed attempts. However, this has proved to be mistaken. Tinubu failed to clean up the South-West with his broom for the APC. Indeed, in order for the APC to prevail in Lagos with only 160,000 votes, INEC had to ensure that many non-indigenes could not get their PVCs.
The truth of the matter is that, quite apart from the shenanigan of having a Redeemed Yoruba pastor as Buhari’s vice-presidential running-mate, the people of the South-West don’t like Buhari. In the 2011 election, they said this emphatically by giving him a paltry 321,000 votes out of the 4.7 million cast in the geopolitical zone. This time, in 2015, Buhari received 2.4 million South-West votes, with a plurality of 600,000 over Jonathan. However, most of those votes were actually not for Buhari: they were against Jonathan.
In the end, the South-West vote was neither pivotal to Buhari’s victory nor central to Jonathan’s defeat. Tinubu’s assistance for Buhari ended at the APC presidential primaries where he got Buhari nominated against the wishes of Northern delegates. All Tinubu did at the level of the presidential election was to give a façade of national spread to Buhari’s essentially Northern victory. This factor will soon come to haunt Tinubu and his South-West cohorts when it is time to share the spoils of victory in the Buhari administration.
Should APC lose the Lagos governorship election, Tinubu would be left in a quandary. All the Northern timber and caliber who were missing in action throughout the campaign when Tinubu, Fashola and other Southern politicians were running helter-skelter with Buhari, will soon come out of the woodwork to claim their Buhari inheritance. Inevitably, they will overshadow the Southern brigade. Vice-President Osinbajo will simply be sent to fetch water when crucial decisions are to be made by Northern “born-to-rule” elements.
Southerners without coattails
In order to defeat the PDP, APC needed to undermine Jonathan in his areas of greatest strengths – the South-South and the South-East. However, APC men like Amaechi, Okorocha and Oshiomhole proved to be paper-tigers in these areas. In Rivers, Amaechi was disgraced. With all his bluster, he could only deliver 69,000 votes to Buhari; while Jonathan made off with a whopping 1.45 million. No wonder, therefore, that the governor tried to save face by saying there was no election in Rivers. He even rented a crowd to go on a perfunctory demonstration.
Chinem Bestman sent me a text message from Port Harcourt with the same complaint that the election was rigged. I answered by asking him if there has ever been a free and fair election in Rivers since 1999. Amaechi knew the ropes, therefore when he came for accreditation, he asked to see the election result sheet. He knew the traditional rigmarole in Rivers was to doctor the report sheet. Now that he has been out-rigged, he is singing a different tune; asking Rivers people to forgive him.
In Imo, Okorocha was humiliated. He could only deliver 19% of the vote to Buhari. It looks like the governor is going to need another job very soon as he is unlikely to be re-elected. In Edo, Oshiomhole did much better. APC lost with 208,000 votes to PDP’s 286,000. Nevertheless, Oshiomhole tried to explain this away by complaining that PDP used the military to manipulate the election. However, when INEC announced the results, APC won the senatorial election in Edo North; one of the places where the governor claimed PDP used the military to rig.
Assault on the South-East
Godsday Orubebe grabbed the microphone during the collation of the election results and alleged to the whole world that INEC chairman Attahiru Jega is partial and tribalistic. His outburst may have been embarrassing, but it is not entirely without justification. The evidence of INEC’s partiality is compelling. Although President Jonathan put a call to Orubebe to stop his protest, and he has decided to accept the verdict of INEC, that does not mean we should sweep INEC’s shenanigans under the carpet.
It is easy to fob off Orubebe by saying he was only being emotional because he is a PDP man from Niger Delta, a kinsman of Mr. President who “lost” the election. That just won’t cut it. I am not a Niger Deltan. I don’t belong in the PDP. I don’t know Goodluck Jonathan and I have never ever met him or spoken to him. Cynical Nigerians believe anyone who supports Jonathan must either be in his pay or be looking for a job. Neither allegation is applicable to me. Jonathan ostensibly received 12.8 million votes; surely all these people were neither in his pay nor Aso Rock job-seekers.
My faith requires me to support the weak. Therefore, I will always support the minority against the tyranny of the majority. We cannot be reliant on South-South oil in Nigeria and then treat one of their sons as if he is an impostor for being president of the country. The fact of the matter is that this presidential election was the result of a vicious and malicious gang-up of the majority ethnic groups against the minorities.
Since the civil war, the Igbos of the South-East have been treated as if they are a minority ethnic group in Nigeria when in fact they are one of the majorities. In order to diminish Jonathan’s votes, a major assault was made against them; recognising that they are some of the staunchest Jonathan supporters. In 2011, the Igbo gave Goodluck Jonathan a decisive 5 million votes. The task of INEC in 2015 was to ensure that did not recur.
INEC rigmarole
Buhari prevailed as a result of a deliberate disenfranchisement of the Igbo by INEC through the manipulation of PVC distribution and the failure of the card reader in the South-East and the South-South. INEC ensured that, far more disproportionately and relative to other geopolitical zones, millions of South-East voters disappeared between 2011 and 2015, in order to provide a smooth passage for a Northern presidential candidate; which turned out to be Buhari.
The first strategy of INEC in this regard was to create 29,000 additional polling units, allocating 21,000 of these to the North and only 8,000 to the South. In this crass manipulation, INEC gave more additional polling units to Abuja than it gave to the entire South-East. However, widespread outcry over this proposal forced INEC to jettison it despite protracted resistance by Jega.
But INEC had a plan B: the registration of voters and the collection of PVCs. This was bogus and lopsided; skewed most especially against the South-East where only 7.6 million were registered and 5.6 million PVCs collected. Compare this with the war-torn North-East: 9.1 million were registered and 7.4 million collected. But the most outrageous were the figures of the North-West. 17.6 million registrations and 15.1 million collections were recorded in the North-West; much more than the figures in the entire South-East and South-South combined.
On Election Day, news of a bomb blast in Enugu served to discourage people from coming out to vote in the South-East. In addition, there was widespread late voter accreditation and voting in the South-East as well as the South-South. One reason for this was the massive failure of the card-readers in these zones, highly suggestive that they were programmed to fail there.
Quite incredibly, the card-reader failed to recognise even the president. It took President Jonathan 35 minutes to get accredited; but within five hours, we are meant to believe that 2.5 million voters in Kano were duly accredited. In the middle of the election, INEC changed from card-reader to manual accreditation. This suddenly brought into play the huge voter registrations in the North-West. Cell-phone video recordings showed many of the North-West’s bloated PVC holders to be under-aged children.
Abracadabra
The total effect of these machinations is that over 2.4 million South-East voters were successfully disenfranchised. 38 million people nationwide voted for Buhari and Jonathan in 2011. In 2015, this figure shrank to 28 million. The votes of the South-West remained virtually constant. 4.6 million people of the South-West voted in 2011: 4.2 million in 2015. But compare this with what happened in the South-East. 5 million people voted in 2011, only 2.6 million in 2015. That is a drastic drop of 2.4 million.
While Kano, Katsina, Kaduna, Jigawa and Bauchi were posting their traditional humongous figures; Imo, Anambra and Abia were posting relatively disappointing figures. Jigawa used to be a part of Kano, when Kano was said to be bigger than Lagos. In the 2015 election, the votes of Jigawa and Kano combined was double that of Lagos. Lagos had 1.4 million votes. Jigawa and Kano had 3.1 million; virtually all for Buhari.
While the internally displaced Northerners in the North-East could vote, internally displaced Igbos from the North could not. In places like Lagos and Kano, many non-indigenes were not even given their PVCs. In effect, the innovation of the Permanent Voters Cards is designed to permanently disenfranchise the South. If this is not redressed immediately, the North will always determine the winner in Nigerian elections.
Dear mr Aribisala, as we are all entitled to our opinions, here is mine. You sir have failed the youth, your profession and the people of Nigeria who for years looked up to you. I hope sir the cost of your soul is worth its full weight in gold.
Correction of my email address.
I used to think that this Femi Aribisala was a reasonable writer until I began to see a clear manifest of hate and hidden motive to heat up the polity even when GEJ has seen that those who claim to be and spoke for him were indeed wishing him failure. Unlike this brainless Aribisala,Erubebe quickly reakised that GEJ has woken up to know that all that were around him were fifth columnists and then he,Erubebe, apologized and put the past behind him. We accept all this so that Nigeria can move forward but what we can NEVER tolerate is for a growing grey haired man to sell some toxic nonsense to us in the name of speaking for one region or tribe,whipping up sentiments. If anybody ‘defeated’ Jonathan,it was the likes of Femi Aribisala, Femi Fani-kayode (thank God both are manifesting the negative Femi in them), Bastard Doyin Okupe and Patience Jonathan. Nigerians should learn to ignore this bunch any time they talk for our own peace.
Femi, please get a life. Of all the journalists that devoured Buhari during the campaigns, you took the biscuit. At a point I stopped reading your column because you poured out venom on the pages of vanguard newspaper that was beyond my comprehension. I concluded that you were angling for a political appointment and therefore not worth my while and others like me who went into this to save our country NIgeria from the point of view of purely performance and integrity. Get a life. The train has left the station. You need deliverance because your hatred and anger are unreasonable!
Baba Femo arm chair critic! Your permutations did not work. Period! no more no less
We are all entitled to our opinion on what happened before, during and after the election but I would have expected the writer to at discuss the election based on issues of the economy, security and other social issues and not seen merely on tribal assumptions of voting.
Why abuse him. Fault his statement and write your own facts, it will be good to compare.
I am of the original inion that Aribisala’s piece is important. I do not think he wrote this to incite anyone to take up arms but it is important that we know what happened. At some point in the future u will come to find out how useful this piece of information is.
Very biased and disappointing write up. Grappling at straws-This ship has sailed away. Pls know when to throw in the towel and stop flogging a dead horse. The president lost 10 million votes against the same candidate he competed with 4 yrs ago. It’s a no-brainier, not much analysis required. It’s a downward trend.
i think the baba is trying to enumerate how buhari won the election .i like the write up ,its like an eye opener .don’t condemned it after all we already have the winner .i think these are facts we need to keep .the northerners are desperate for power shift to their side .
Shame on you Aribisala for this ungodly ‘analysis’ from a man who claims to represent God..
I dont know what motivated you to write this farcical report but you have clearly demonstrated that you are either very stupid, or simply have ulterior motives for this juvenile analysis
– It is dishonest of you to say INEC deprived Jonathan supporters of PVC. HOW WOULD THEY KNOW THAT? Even if there were problems with PVC collection, how can you say with a straight face that Jonathan supporters were singled out?
-You said the defeat of Jonathan was a GANG UP OF THE MAJORITY AGAINST THE MINORITY’ – Thats is so infantile when you consider that this same majority people gave JONATHAN a 5,000,000 MARGIN OF VICTORY IN 2011 over this same buhari. IF THE MAJORITY TRIBES REALLY HATRED HIM HOW COME MOST OF THE S.W VOTED FOR HIM IN 2011?
– Instead of recognizing the obvious fact that people kicked against JONATHAN because he was a FAILURE AS AN ADMINISTRATOR AND PRESIDED OVER THE MOST CORRUPT REGIME NIGERIA HAS EVER SEEN, you are here spewing apologetic rubbish.
– For a man who claimed to be a pastor, your analysis is an embarassment to the truth. True some PVC readers malfunctioned but how would that have worked against PDP? Does the machine reader know whoever anyone was going to vote for?
Personally, I think you are just frustrated because your man lost because of his own incompetence. I voted for Jonathan in 2011 and he was a total disappointment so I made sure i did all I could to contribute my bit to ensure he does not get reelected again. This has nothing to do with his tribe at all. INCOMPETENCE SHOULD NEVER BE REWARDED
As for your unjustifiable accusation about INEC favouring JOnathan, if you bothered to check the results you will notice that the percentage of voter turnout was same average over most of the country except for 3 of the states where Jonathan won where the figures were much higher than normal.
Finally, we all remember it is FAKE PASTORS OF YOUR CALIBER THAT CLAIMED GOD HAS CHOSEN JONATHAN when God obviously said no such thing. Now instead of apologising for misrepresenting God’s will you have come out with a very embarrassing excuse of an analysis my 6 year old daughter could fault in 10 places. Please Go and seek the face of god and repent before his wrath will devour you for your foolish defence of lies
Hello Mr. Aribisala.
I think you have a deep grudge against some people for reasons best known to you. I will advice you blow it out and make peace with yourself. Your write ups are always the same-one who is very angry. In your write up above you fail to state the number of people that voted in the NW and NE for balance. You also fail to appreciate the fact that the card reader successfully ‘dis-enfrachise’ the rigging numbers from the 2011 exercise about 10m in this case.
I think it will help if you start seeing the positive side of things fro a change. Bihari was voted for across religion, ethnicity and all other divides for two simple reasons his integrity and leadership we seriously crave. Also Jonathan lost for the opposite of the two reasons.
Clear your chest and live a fulfilled life.
I think Aribisala should be clear on one thing. Jonathan was voted out because hr has shown that he could not deliver on the job. Corruption, security, economy are,just a few of his incompetence. Pastor should stop creating excuses. As ab agbalagba he should comment on issues with the fact that we also see things in mind….
There is no sence in this , what we need is Nigeria to move forward .
Yawn!!! the story is long and somewhat interesting. However, President GEJ is liked for who he is, and voted against (like you mentioned) by those that like him for one major reason – We did not see a leader; and other minor reasons that could have been forgiven: less performance in view of expectations, carefree attitude towards security, managing the economy and the acts of people around him. Every other part of the story are mere assumptions that would have been irrelevant irrespective of who is pushing it had we seen a leader in Mr. President – the electorate are wiser now and wants firstly a leader!
OK.
I used to respect Aribisala but with this write up the man is a failure,i dont think i’ll read anything he write again and if I am his student i rather change course of leave the school,with people like this Nigeria will never graduate any good student.