The Cambridge Advanced Learner’s Dictionary defines hate speech as “public speech that expresses hate or encourages violence towards a person or group based on something such as race, religion, sex or sexual orientation”. In recent times, hate speech has assumed alarming proportion in the form of “quit notices” issued by various groups demanding that Nigerians of different ethnic backgrounds leave their regions latest by October 1, 2017.
It will be recalled that sometime in June, a coalition of youth groups in the north issued a three-month ultimatum to all Nigerians of Igbo extraction resident in the 19 states of the North to leave the region or be forced out after the expiration of the October 1, 2017 deadline. In what appears to be a reaction to the quit notice given to the Igbo by the northern youths, a coalition of Niger Delta militants demanded that ‘northerners’ leave their region before October 1. It has been reported also that another group, known as the Coalition of Niger Delta Agitators, had threatened to ‘resume attacks on oil installations in the region should northerners and Yoruba people remain in the oil-rich region beyond October 1’. And only a few days ago, a coalition of Middle Belt youths asked Fulani herdsmen to vacate their region before October 1 this year.
So, rather than look forward to celebrating the country’s Independence anniversary on October 1, many citizens are gripped in fear- no thanks to increasing spate of hate speech from various sections of the country that portends danger to the nation’s economy. In the past few months, the Nigerian economy has shown signs of recovery: the government’s economic blueprint (the ERGP) has been launched; the recession is gradually fizzling out (at least in technical terms); inflation rate is trending south, improved liquidity (on the back of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Investors’ and Exporters’ Foreign Exchange window) has stabilised the foreign exchange market, business confidence is gradually returning and the stock market is gaining traction. These modest gains risk being reversed if the current avalanche of hate speech is not nipped in the bud.
Take the case of Mr Okoro (not real name), the owner of one of the biggest building material shops in Kaduna, who has vowed not to entertain any credit request from any of his customers till after October 1 while he makes plans to take his family to Ghana ahead of the “quit notice” deadline. Okoro’s decision, and that of many others in his line of business, will certainly have a negative impact on the building sub-sector in Kaduna. To make things worse, Deposit Money Banks, already risk averse from high non-performing loans (well beyond the regulatory threshold of five per cent), will demonstrate unwillingness to lend as they factor in uncertainty caused by hate speech in their credit appraisal to the detriment of credit to the real sector.
As October 1 approaches, the naira will likely depreciate especially a few weeks before the deadline as people demand foreign currency not only to escape the country but also as a store of value. The urge will be there to relocate families and dear ones to neighbouring countries and even overseas in the meantime. The pressure on the scarce foreign exchange will be made worse by the likely exit of foreign portfolio investors scared away by the avoidable tension in the country, drying up liquidity especially in the investor-exporter window which has helped to stabilise the exchange rate. The exit of foreign portfolio investors will as usual lead to panic by domestic investors thereby taking a great toll on the stock market. The month of September may be bearish for the stock market as fallout of the unfavourable investment climate brought about by hate speech attributed to various youth groups across the country.
Also, the tension generated by “quit notices” can result in higher cost of transport fares than that recorded in August which will feed into higher inflation figure for September due to increase in number of people moving from one region to another to beat the October 1 deadline. The National Bureau of Statistics notes that high transport and energy costs are the major drivers of inflation in Nigeria. The negative effect of hate speech on exchange rate and inflation will complicate monetary policy management for the Central Bank which may be compelled to further tighten monetary policy. The Monetary Policy Committee of the CBN is scheduled to meet in September, a few days to October 1 and it is unlikely, given the present circumstances, that the committee will adopt any accommodative policy stance.
Furthermore, banks’ unwillingness to lend and rational firms’ cautious approach to investment in a period of uncertainty may push back the marginal improvements already recorded in the manufacturing sector. The Purchasing Managers Index may drop below the threshold of 50 points in September. As earlier noted, the cost of food items (which has been on the rise in spite of the decline in headline inflation) may spike further in September. This will be due to the pass-through effect of higher exchange rate and the likelihood that many Nigerians may want to stock up food items “just in case”.
On the other hand, other non-essential commodities may experience low demand in September leading to increase in inventory accumulation and low capacity utilisation by firms. As people make plans for their safety and flee regions of the country considered volatile, hotel occupancy rates in those regions may drop. In a period of uncertainty, the property market may experience a lull with property prices crashing due to supply (by those fleeing) outstripping demand. September may also witness higher unemployment rate with its social undesirable consequences such as increase in crime rate including kidnapping of defenceless Nigerians supposedly running for dear lives.
In sum, hate speech, if not checked, will hurt the economy and is capable of rubbishing the current economic recovery efforts of the government. The cheering news however is that unlike the reported position of the Northern Elders’ Forum, which approves of the call by the coalition of Northern Youth Groups for Nigerians of Igbo extraction to leave the region, hate speech is being condemned by many opinion leaders and groups regardless of political, ethnic or religious backgrounds. Of note is the commendable stance of the Arewa Consultative Forum, the Northern Governors’ Forum (especially the Kaduna and Kano states’ governors) and the Nigerian Guild of Editors.
The National Assembly, as disclosed by the Senate President Bukola Saraki, has also expressed readiness to deal with the menace by speedily passing the Anti-Hate Speech Bill whenever it is laid before the upper chamber. Recent reports also say that due to the delay in the nation’s criminal justice system, the federal and state governments have reached a decision to designate special courts for the purposes of prosecuting purveyors of hate speech. It was equally in a bid to check the rising incidence of hate speech in the country that Vice President Yemi Osinbajo stated that it would henceforth be regarded by the government as an act of terrorism.
In recognition of the challenges posed by this cankerworm, President Buhari had reassuring words for Nigerians when he declared in his recent broadcast to the nation that “every Nigerian has the right to live and pursue his business anywhere in Nigeria without let or hindrance”. This is a wake-up call to our security agencies to ensure that any plans the various youth groups are hatching before October 1, capable of fuelling insecurity in the country, are neutralised. By so doing, the economy is spared the negative consequences of hate speech.
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