During the recently concluded 17th Convocation of the Enugu State University of Science and Technology, the Director-General/CEO of the Nigerian Meteorological Agency, Dr Anthony Anuforom, presented a seminal lecture which was entitled, “Weather observation, modelling and forecasting as tools for managing climate change impacts”.
The paper is important because in submitting its Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (which upon ratification of Paris Agreement becomes the Nationally Determined Contribution) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Nigeria is expected to not only cut down its emissions of greenhouse gases, but to also institute concrete measures to adapt to the impacts of climate change and global warming. There can be no better way to adapt to such impacts than the observation, modelling and forecasting of weather; as the phenomena revolve around weather-related vagaries.
It is now a well-known fact that the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as flooding, storms, hurricanes, drought, sea-level rise and coastal inundation, among others, have been increasing and this is attributed to global warming and climate change. Seasonal patterns such as onset and cessation dates of rains have changed noticeably in Nigeria and many other parts of the world. Global warming is caused by greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere.
Anuforom’s paper states that as of the end of September 2016, the global mean CO2 concentration reached 400.72 ppm (the highest ever recorded in history) as against 397.15 ppm for September 2015. This all-time high CO2 concentration also reflects in the increasing trend in global temperature. The World Meteorological Organisation confirmed this trend in its latest report on the state of the global climate. The report reveals that 2011-2015 was the hottest five-year period on record, with 2015 being the single hottest year. The record temperature rises were accompanied by rising sea levels and other extreme weather events such as droughts in Australia, Brazil, Somalia, Kenya, parts of the United States, etc; extreme cold in China, parts of United States and Canada and Europe; flooding and flash floods in India, Pakistan, South-East Asia, Central Europe and Nigeria.
The world therefore under the UNFCCC platform became determined to curb the GHG emissions. A significant shift in the approach to negotiating the GHG emission reduction was achieved at the 2014 20th Conference Of Parties in Lima, Peru, where it was agreed that each signatory country to the Convention should determine her own contribution to the global emission reduction target (or Intended Nationally Determined Contribution, as well as the climate action plan for implementation. Prior to this, it was decided at COP 19 in Warsaw in 2013 to invite all Parties to initiate or intensify domestic preparations for their INDCs. Each country was requested to submit her INDC to the UNFCCC Secretariat ahead of COP 21 in Paris.
The UNFCCC report shows that as of April 2016, 189 countries 1(representing 96 per cent of the Parties to the Convention) had submitted their INDCs, which included mitigation component. Out of this number, 137 or 83 per cent also included adaptation component in their INDCs.
Nigeria submitted its INDC in November 2015, and our country’s commitment under the INDC is to achieve the following by 2030: 20 per cent reductions in the GHG emission (unconditional) or 45 per cent reduction in GHG emission (conditional). The targets are to be achieved through ending gas flaring by 2030; assembling off-grid solar photo-voltaic of 13GW; structuring efficient gas generators, two per cent per year energy efficiency (30 per cent by 2030); shifting transport mode of cars to buses; improving electricity grid; and adopting climate smart agriculture and reforestation.
The mitigation strategy in Nigeria INDC contains strategies for the agricultural sector, forests and land use change, gas flaring, energy, transport and infrastructure, manufacturing, short-lived pollutants and air quality, climate smart cities, gender impacts and social inclusion.
On the other hand, the adaptation component of Nigeria INDC is derived largely from the National Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Action for Climate Change Nigeria. The goal of the adaptation component spells out actions to be taken to reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts, minimize risks, increasing resilience, improving adaptive capacity, leveraging on new opportunities and facilitating collaboration within the country as well as the global community. The INDC outlines adaptation strategies for 13 sectors: Agriculture (crop and livestock), water resources (fresh and coastal), forestry, biodiversity, health and sanitation, energy, human settlement and housing, transportation and communication, industry and commerce; disaster management, migration and security, livelihoods, vulnerable groups, education.
Considering how weather affects the foregoing, weather observation and forecasting, as well as other climate services provided by Nigeria’s meteorological authorities are required for implementing the strategies set out for most of the sectors.
Therefore, the role of NiMet in implementing the NDCs is obvious in the light of Section 7 of the NiMet Act 2003, which states the functions of the agency. Of particular relevance is Sub-section 7(1) (c) – (f) which states as follows: (c) “issue weather forecasts for the safe operation of aircraft, ocean going vessels” (relevant to TRANSPORTATION); (d) “promote the services of meteorology in agricultural, drought and desertification activities” (relevant to AGRICULTURE; DISASTER MANAGEMENT; (e) “provide meteorological services in operational hydrology and water resources activities” (relevant to WATER RESOURCES); (f) “provide weather services in marine, environmental pollution and bio- meteorology for climatic and human health activities” (relevant to HEALTH & BIODIVERSITY).
However, the story does not end with adaptation to climate change. The mitigation component of Nigeria’s NDC envisages that by 2030 a reduction of 74 million tonnes of GHG emission will be achieved through climate smart agriculture, while 31 million tonnes reduction will be achieved through renewable energy. Notably, both sectors are sensitive to weather and therefore require meteorological products and services.
This is why I am concerned that up till now the Federal Government has not commenced the implementation of the country’s central coordination platform for such an adaptation strategy: the NFACS. Our adaptation strategy (NASPA-CCN) is futile at best without such germane platform.
It will be recalled that in 2009, the World Meteorological Organisation, realising the increasing need to provide science-based information to communities that are vulnerable to weather-related hazards, commenced the process of developing the Global Framework for Climate Services, which was finally adopted in 2012. The objective of the GFCS is to enable societies better manage the risks and opportunities arising from climate variability and change by providing science-based climate information to the most vulnerable and incorporating such information into planning, policy formulation and implementation at all levels of government. To achieve this objective, the GFCS was designed to bring together climate information providers (such as NiMet), end users, researchers and other stakeholders, to facilitate the production and timely dissemination of qualitative science-based information.
The five priority areas of GFCS are agriculture and food security, disaster risk reduction, energy, health and water. These sectors are naturally among the priority areas in the adaptation component of Nigeria’s NDC, as well as those of other developing countries.
Our National Framework for Application of Climate Services, which was conceptualised in 2013 and kept in abeyance after conclusive work has been done on it, should be resuscitated and completed. Climate change and the challenges associated with it are cross-cutting and multi-dimensional. No single organisation, Ministry Department or Agency can tackle the issues alone.
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