Under military dictator Ibrahim Babangida’s convoluted political transition programme, the progressives of the Lagos State chapter of the former Social Democratic Party had fierce dispute on who would be their governorship candidate.
Their leader, former Lagos State Governor Lateef Jakande, preferred Prof Femi Agbalajobi, but Dapo Sarumi, from Epe Division as Agbalajobi, offered himself, and a standoff ensued. Jakande reportedly “instructed” the SDP sympathisers to vote for Michael Otedola of the ultra-conservative National Republican Convention.
Another such upset is brewing in Lagos State, where the Mandate Group, a political action committee made up of politicians fiercely loyal to former Lagos State Governor, Bola Tinubu, is making a profound political statement.
This group, led by James Odunbaku, a former Vice Chairman of the All Progressives Congress in Lagos State, dropped incumbent Governor Akinwunmi Ambode, and adopted Jide Sanwo-Olu, current Managing Director of Lagos State Development and Property Corporation as the APC governorship candidate in 2019.
Sanwo-Olu, who has submitted the APC governorship expression of interest form, has been endorsed by the Chairmen of the 57 Local Government Areas/ Local Council Development Areas of Lagos State, and the APC chairmen in those constituencies.
A former Lagos State Commissioner for Works and Infrastructure, Dr. Femi Hamzat, has taken advantage of the endorsement to fill elective posts in Lagos State by the APC’s Governor’s Advisory Council, to pick the party’s governorship form, his father being a traditional ruler in a community near Ifo in Ogun State, notwithstanding.
The hard stance of the Mandate Group and the GAC is said to have been informed by Governor Ambode’s neglect of the interest of the party stalwarts after he assumed office. The odds against him are strengthened by these decisions, though there are claims that the APC does not have a valid membership list.
Somebody is hinting that if Governor Ambode seeks re-election via another political party, the Lagos State House of Assembly will contrive a booby-trap of impeachment to keep him distracted. Former Speaker Adeyemi Ikuforiji, who knows the score, has asked for prayers on his behalf.
Some Lagos political grandees who eke out a living by operating waste management outfits complain that Ambode eased them out to favour Visionscape that has obviously failed, and left the streets and homes of the Lagos metropolis in a near-permanent state of filthiness.
Their 350-member lobby, the Lagos State chapter of the Association of Waste Managers of Nigeria, has endorsed Sanwo-Olu. They claim to employ about 25,000 people, and boast they can muster 150,000 for him.
Failure to promptly collect refuse throughout the Lagos metropolis, due to the apparent inadequacies of Visionscope, has caused Governor Ambode to incur the wrath of the citizens, who dread the outbreak of an epidemic.
What also irks the citizens of Lagos is the astronomical increase of the Land Use Charge. It is nearly a cardinal sin, from which he may not easily be forgiven. The filth and the Land Use Charge will be used as deadly arsenal against Ambode, even though he is doing very well on other fronts.
That the political following tail is seemingly wagging the Tinubu leadership dog is now being pitched as a sign that democracy is at work in Lagos. Proof is in Bayo Osinowo who is contesting the Lagos East senatorial seat with incumbent Senator Gbenga Ashafa.
This is probably the ultimate signal that the grassroots politicians -the “mama alata,” or pepper sellers, “eleran,” or butchers, and “oni wosiwosi,” or petty traders, the party organisers, parry stalwarts-and not just party grandees led by Tinubu, will determine the APC’s governorship candidate on Saturday, September 29, 2018.
Notable peacemakers, who have reportedly attempted to restore Ambode into favour with Tinubu, include President Muhammadu Buhari, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, Olowo Eko Oba Rilwan Akiolu of Lagos, and some APC governors.
But Tinubu has maintained a studied silence, though there are suggestions that he may be doing a rethink. But his checkmate is in Sanwo-Olu who is claiming that Tinubu will never ask him to step down for Ambode, because “The movement we have started is participatory democracy.”
If the suggestion that Ambode, who has submitted his completed APC governorship form, may pick the governorship form of another political party is true, the permutation is that there will be a three-horse race between him, Sanwo-Olu of the APC, and Femi Otedola, or Jimi Agbaje, of the PDP. The rumour mill suggests that Otedola has secretly picked the ticket of a political party and is keenly watching how the political winds will blow.
Governor Ambode needs no introduction; Sanwo-Ola was a banker, who has served as commissioner in Lagos State; billionaire Otedola, who recently caused a stir for riding on a Lagos mass transit bus, is one of Africa’s richest men; and Agbaje, a pharmacist, is a serial governorship candidate in Lagos State.
Those who prefer Ambode to continue argue that he is the best man to complete the projects that he started. Others argue that he has no proprietary rights over the ideas he is deploying in Lagos, and that Sanwo-Olu, a bonafide member of the Tinubu political family, has the capacity to complete the projects.
Those who want Otedola or Agbaje as Governor of Lagos State think that either could break the political hegemony that they perceive former Governor Tinubu has over Lagos. They resent cosmopolitan Lagos kowtowing to the suzerain of an individual.
Assuming the scenario is as described, the possibility exists that Ambode and Otedola will neutralise each other in their Epe Division constituency, and the winner will be pitted against Agbaje and Sanwo-Olu. You can swear that money is going to be a potent wind in this race. Nigeria’s politics is powered by the naira sign.
But really, the candidate who wins the sympathy of the grassroots voters of Lagos State, where the Tinubu political family has a near-cultic lock will likely win the governorship election. So Governor Ambode, or anyone else who wants to be governor must court this group.
The breakaway faction of the intellectual wing of the Tinubu political family, including Minister of Power, Works, and Housing Babatunde Fashola, and former APC legal adviser, Dr. Muiz Banire, cannot help Ambode.
Apart from lacking the political platform to deploy against the larger Tinubu political family, they are not exactly enamoured of Governor Ambode. They would not also root for Sanwo-Olu, Tinubu’s new point man. But their survival instinct will prevent them from working for Otedola or Agbaje. And so they will stay neutral. This leaves the Lagos political landscape in the firm grip of the Tinubu political family.
But the cost of dumping Governor Ambode may have consequences, even if it is not immediately apparent. A pointer is in the dangling fate of the APC in the Osun State governorship election. Failure to win Osun State re-run election may spiral against the APC, not only in Lagos, but throughout Nigeria.
It could erase the assumption that the South-West is the playmaker of the APC, and prove a possible death knell to the Jagaban mystique. As the Yoruba would say, you need patience to extricate the delicate member of the body of a male from a deadly hook.
Nonetheless, Ambode has worked. If he ain’t really broke, don’t fix him.
Twitter @lekansote1
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