mibelema@bellsouth.net
If you want a capsule of the story of COVID-19 at this time, you can’t do much better than to read of a friend’s recent experience. The New York City resident lived through one of the worst outbreaks in the world, and hence one of the strictest lockdowns. By June, the cloud had lifted. The infection rate had plummeted to one of the lowest in the country. And with that came a lifting of the lockdown.
Feeling liberated and wanting to spend time with a relative and new mother, the friend flew to Houston, Texas. At about that time, Texas became one of the epicenters of the outbreak. To protect itself, New York imposed a 14-day quarantine on travellers from 22 states, including Texas. That applies to residents who travelled out for just a few days.
As you’ve already surmised, the friend was thus a victim of the changing fortunes in the coronavirus outbreak. Where the outlook is sunny today, it could readily become bleak the next.
When various countries and US states began lifting their lockdowns in May, I wrote then that it was more in response to economic imperatives than the logic of containment. I wrote then too that the liftings were, in effect, a shift of responsibility from governments to the people. Now the report card is in as to how people managed that responsibility.
Actually, some governments share the blame for going too far or too quickly. For example, it defies logic to allow bars and nightclubs to open while the virus still raged. But ultimately, it is individuals’ common sense and self-control that are the decisive factors.
The US experience may well be the best illustration. By late May, the infection rate in most states was declining or at least plateauing. Though most states still hadn’t met the guidelines for lifting lockdowns, most did so anyway.
They had their eyes on Memorial Day, a national holiday in honour of soldiers who lost their lives in battles. It also happens to be the holiday that kickstarts summer activities. And this year, it served the additional function of a relief valve for people who had been in lockdown for months.
So, disregarding all the guidelines on containment, people trooped to the beaches, nightclubs, bars and restaurants. Young people in particular. Ordinarily, they tend to see themselves as invincible. The low COVID-19 morbidity and mortality rates among them only reinforced that self-perception.
Problem is that even when they are asymptomatic after contracting the virus, they take it home to more vulnerable family members. So, the infection rate spiked. Not surprisingly, states such as Florida, Texas and California that are most popular with fun seekers are also experiencing the worst resurgence.
A little over a month later on July 4, Americans celebrated another major holiday, Independence Day. On this occasion, some states such as Florida and California shut down some of their beaches and related facilities. Some didn’t. So, much of what caused the post-Memorial Day surge still re-occurred.
The combined effect is what is now causing record-setting daily surges in Florida and elsewhere. JP Morgan, the financial industry stalwart, has found a correlation between credit card use in restaurants and spikes in COVID-19 infections.
Of course, several infected joy seekers took their infections to their states of residence. And so more than half of US states are experiencing increases in infection. That gives the US the undesirable distinction of topping the world in COVID-19 infections and deaths. Some state and municipal governments are now ordering a reversion to the lockdowns that were prematurely lifted.
The US surge is quite in contrast with the trend elsewhere in the world. According to a chart in the New York Times early in July, neighbouring Canada has the lowest rate of weekly infection, followed by the European Union. And so they have kept discretionary travel to and from the US embargoed even as they open up to each other.
The only major countries experiencing spikes in infection, other than the US, are Brazil and India. Like the resurgence in the US, Brazil’s spike was predictable. President Jair Bolsonaro was a COVID-19 skeptic, until he got infected. As to India, despite the rise in numbers, its per capita rate is still low because of its large population.
Africa’s case
Africa’s COVID-19 situation continues to provide reason for cheer as well as concern. On the one hand, the total cases and death rate are much lower than what obtains elsewhere.
As of July 8, Africa had just surpassed barely 500,000 cases. By comparison, the US has surpassed 3.4 million cases. To put this in perspective, Africa’s population (1.34 billion, according to Worldometer) is four times that of the US (331 million).
The only concern with the situation in Africa is the trajectory, said Dr Matshidiso Moeti, the World Health Organisation ’s director for Africa. “With more than a third of countries in Africa doubling their cases over the past month, the threat of Covid-19 overwhelming fragile health systems is escalating,” the BBC quotes Moeti as saying.
However, such statistics can be misleading. Doubling doesn’t mean much if the starting point is low. For example, a country whose case rose from 200 to 400 has doubled its case, but it is still remarkably low. The hypothetical country can double several more times without reaching a point of crisis. This is not the basis for complacency, but for optimism.
South Africa and Egypt, account for 60 per cent of Africa’s cases. In fact, South Africa, which ranks 8th in the world in number of infections, accounts for much of Africa’s cases. And it is experiencing the worst surge in the continent.
In any case, given the low rate of testing in African countries, there have been questions of reliability of the case figures. What is not nearly as doubtful is that the death rate has remained generally lower than elsewhere.
As of July 15, for example, Reuters reports that South Africa is nearing 300,000 cases with just over 4,300 deaths. That’s a remarkably low death rate of 1.4 per cent. Worldometer reports that Nigeria has about 33,600 COVID-19 cases and 750 deaths for about 2.2 per cent rate.
Given the low rate of testing, there is probably a major gap between the reported cases and the reality. But the gap can’t be as much regarding deaths. That makes the death rate a more reliable basis for assessing Africa’s situation.
The continent’s low death rate is especially remarkable because of the below-standard medical infrastructure, high rate of poverty and the related health and nutritional shortfalls. The low incidence and death rate have been credited to the relative youth of Africa’s population.
Whatever the case, what is important is that African governments and people not repeat the mistake of several US states. That is to assume prematurely—or act as though—the danger is over. Coronavirus has proven to be unforgiving of that mistake.
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