The serious issue, however, is whether these tectonic forces in the UK are also shaping the American political landscape, making a Trump victory in November more likely. After all, virtually no-one thought Trump would capture the Republican nomination – not with his temperament, his uncivil behaviour, his outrageous statements and provocations. And it is clear from the reaction to Brexit – complete and utter shock in the UK and worldwide – that most reputable authorities did not believe that Leave would pass.
But both have happened. And so, when the voice before the rallies and press conference intones, “Ladies and gentlemen, the next President of the United States, Donald J. Trump” – are we just hearing things or is that a prelude to the real thing from next January 20, along with “Hail to the Chief”?
For the second time in two weeks, we have a world-scale event that has the potential to rock the presidential campaign: first Orlando, and now Brexit.
After the massacre in Florida, Trump went all-out on pushing the radical Islamic terrorist button, and his anti-Muslim authoritarian “solutions”. But the response to his provocative appeals was tepid at best, and did nothing to improve his standing in the polls.
After the vote on the EU, from his golf course in Scotland, Trump tapped into the rich vein of anti-globalisation sentiment, lauding the British people for taking their country back – just as he hopes Americans will do in November.
But the early signs are that this appeal is failing to secure political gains, just as with his response to Orlando.
Why? Since he clinched the nomination in May, Trump has not expanded his base at all. His unfavourables have increased, along with his lack of traction with Republicans in Congress. There is no echo chamber of support for what he is saying, and how he is saying it, from the Republican leadership.
Trump can rail that the party establishment is not with him – but that does not get him any more support from voters ripe for change after two terms of Barack Obama, and the prospect of a third Democratic term with Hillary Clinton.
Trump’s massive attack on Clinton’s foreign policy record, ethics and personal attributes failed miserably; there were no punches landed outside of his ringside supporters. And the fact is that America, with its rich diversity, looks more like London than the rest of England that voted to leave the EU.
At the same time, Clinton has projected a steady, certain posture that conveys the message: in a complex, demanding, challenging and very difficult world, I know how to see us through it safely. Most Americans see chaos in Europe and do not want Trump-induced chaos at home.
Where is the vulnerability for Clinton? If Brexit leads by October to a real, sustained economic downturn, and the president’s approval rating tanks, the real squeeze on working Americans and the middle class would have more political bite for Trump – something he could truly exploit. The angst and fear that play to Trump’s nativism and xenophobia could well mesh with a real hit to pocketbooks.
And if the disarray in Europe spills over into tensions exploited by Vladimir Putin’s Russia in Eastern Europe, Iran in the Middle East, and China in the South China Sea, with real setbacks being registered against Western strategic interest and our sense of security – that too could provide traction for Trump.
So the man has not changed. But the world has.
Bruce Wolpe was on the Democratic staff in Congress in president Barack Obama’s first term. He is a supporter of Hillary Clinton’s campaign. He is chief of staff to former Prime Minister Julia Gillard. The views posted here are solely and exclusively his own.
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