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When I saw the news on Tuesday, it eclipsed the uplifting World Health Organisation announcement that Nigeria, and indeed the whole of Africa, has been declared polio-free. Yet, I did not panic. I could only begin a mental journey into the past years when such news came to Nigerians. It is an annual ritual, which always has a way of leading to what is known as “caution fatigue”. When people wait for the disaster to come upon them without preparation, because they are tired of staying on the alert mode.
The news is that the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency warned that Kebbi, Niger, Kwara, Nasarawa, Kogi, Anambra, Delta, Edo, Rivers and Bayelsa states, which are contiguous to River Niger, will likely experience severe flooding next month, September. The agency said that the red alert was based on the information received from the regional Niger Basin Authority headquartered in Niamey, to the effect that the flood level of River Niger, monitored in Niamey on Sunday, August 23, was 6.60m.
Interestingly, the Director General of NIHSA, Clement Nze, made it clear that we should be worried because Nigeria is located at the lowest portion of the Niger Basin. He said that the flood magnitude sighted in Niamey is expected to arrive Nigeria through Kebbi State around September 6, 2020.
I must say that the NIHSA warning did not get me anxious. Rather, it got me angry. I am angry at the type of political leadership we have in our country because such warnings always seem to fall on deaf ears. In a best case scenario, the government will prepare for knee-jerk emergency response.
Yet, such periodic monitoring of the River Niger Basin is meant to take long-term decisions. When a scientific study and forecast are made, the government ignores them at its own peril. That is why Nigeria, a country that is in a safe zone, meteorologically speaking, will always experience over-flooded water bodies. It happened in the case of River Benue; now it is River Niger. As climate change gets even worse, it may happen in Abuja’s Jabi Lake! I will dwell on this next week.
Today, I want to throw light on the fact that the global platform for tackling climate change is going to lose a whole year of “climate diplomacy” action. Still, within this year, extreme weather events are not relenting. It fact, it seems 2020 is experiencing intense climate crisis, despite the fact that COVID-19 helped us clean some carbon off the atmosphere, sort of. Let us look at what is currently happening in India and the United States of America.
As India’s weather becomes more extreme, monsoon floods have presently displaced millions of citizens. In the latest incident, at least 22 people have been killed after monsoon-season floods triggered a landslide in the southern Indian state of Kerala. Houses were swept away after the torrential rain and flooding late in the night, while rescuers rummaged through the landslide. The Indian Meteorological Department had issued a red alert for Idukki, warning of extremely heavy rainfall of more than 20cm (eight inches). This is unlike what they were used to in the monsoon season. It is adjudged abnormal in scientific circles. As a result, when the intense rain struck, 20 houses of tea plantation workers and their families were buried under the debris.
In America, it is the wildfire in California. Last week, California Governor Gavin Newsom reported that the state was battling 367 known fires, many sparked by intense thunderstorms on August 16-17, caused by moisture from Tropical Storm Fausto. Response and evacuations were complicated by a historic heatwave and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. He declared a state of emergency on August 18.
It is important to note that the California wildfire is seasonal, typically occurs August and November when hot, dry winds are most frequent, and does not end until the first significant rainstorm of winter arrives, usually around October in Northern California, and roughly between late October and December in Southern California. But this year is different. Early in the year, there was a concern for the potential 2020 fire season to be prolonged and intense due to the unusually dry months of January and February. These months were recorded as one of the driest two months of any calendar year on record.
Of course, the ecological tallies are skyrocketing as a result of climate change. And the COP is not happening this year. This is why for those who love the environment, COVID-19 hit below the belt. In light of the unprecedented pandemic, the 26th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the 16th meeting of the parties to the Kyoto Protocol, and the third meeting of the parties to the Paris Agreement, scheduled to hold in November 2020, in Glasgow, Scotland, was postponed until November 1-12, 2021.
Generally known as the United Nations Climate Change Conference, or COP26, the event was highly anticipated to galvanise the world into stepping up ambition to save the environment we all live in, as climate change is now an undeniable threat to every form of life on Earth. With the worsening extreme weather events and the inability of poorer nations to adapt to emerging ecological challenges, the UN Climate Change process is central for a collective action.
But, alas, COP26 was postponed as host nations Italy and the United Kingdom were heavily affected by the pandemic. The venue of the conference, the SEC Centre in Glasgow, was converted in May 2020 into a temporary hospital for COVID-19 patients. The main concern with the delay of the global confab is the potential loss of momentum in climate action. This is remarkably worrying because of the lack-luster showing in the preceding COP25, last year.
Some observers noted that though not directly related, the postponement will give the international community time to respond to the outcome of the United States presidential election. This is crucial because incumbent president Donald Trump has vowed to withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Agreement, but can only do this if he wins this election; while his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, has pledged to stay in the Paris Accord and increase ambition to reduce emissions.
Nonetheless, it is pertinent to look with renewed hope towards the 2021 COP, especially with an eye on the rear view mirror. The past COP25 was not particularly a morale booster for any climate action enthusiast. In fact, the Secretary General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, left no one in doubt of its cold comfort, when he declared: “I am disappointed with the result of COP25. The international community lost an important opportunity to show increased ambition on mitigation, adaption and finance to tackle the climate crisis.”
With the performance of COP25 in mind, the world can only hope that before COP26 kicks off next year, every nation would have recovered enough from COVID-19 pandemic to find the extra breath needed for one last lap towards a safe global climate governance.
Meanwhile, the coming climate talks will be the biggest international summit the UK has ever hosted; bringing together over 30,000 delegates including heads of state, climate experts and campaigners to agree coordinated action to tackle climate change. The battered Earth must pray for the best, because the question on the mind of many people is, when COP26 resumes, will the negotiators be able to speed up the process in tandem with worsening climate change?
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