“The secret of success is constancy of purpose” –Benjamin Disraeli
If the rather strange Nigeria’s political trajectory that produces a new set of government every 20 years since 1959 plays itself out, it means that the apple cart would be turned once again come 2019 general elections. Before you vent your vituperation let us consider these intriguing facts. For instance, Nigeria’s presidential election that held on August 11, 1979 was a victory for Alhaji Shehu Shagari, under the National Party of Nigeria (NPN). It ushered in the Second Republic after the military interregnum.
In a similar vein, the presidential elections held on February 27, 1999 being the first since the 1993 military coup, was a victory for Chief Olusegun Obasanjo (alias OBJ) of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). He defeated Chief Olu Falae who ran on a joint ticket of Alliance for Democracy (AD)-All People’s Party (APP). But that was then. A lot of murky water has since passed under the political bridge.
Truth be told, the cloudy political scenario this time around may not be as predictable as it obtained in the past. This is due to several salient factors. Firstly, there are as many as 91 political parties that have joined the fray. Interestingly, not less than 31 of them parade their presidential candidates.
They will all square up against President Muhammadu Buhari of the APC and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP both considered as the true front runners in the February, 2019 presidential race. There are however, some fascinating factors that may stand the former Vice President in good stead.
On a personal scale, he is undoubtedly the most experienced, traversing Nigeria’s tough political landscape and having solid structures on ground to build patronage upon. He was in PDP between 1998 and 2006 and returned in 2017. In between he was in the ACN between 2006 and 2009 and of course, the APC between 2013 and 2017. Atiku would leverage on the bridges he has built across the six geo-political zones to sell his candidature.
Besides, he would be seen as one to be believed when it comes to sustainable job creation. And it is all because he has succeeded at that in the private sector. The ease of doing business in Nigeria is far from encouraging. This means that we therefore, need someone with the clout in business environment to fast track economic empowerment.
Yet, something else will assist him to succeed. The general consensus, backed with empirical evidence, is that the incumbent, Buhari has said more than he has done in delivering on his electoral promises made in 2015. For instance, the recurring ugly decimal of insecurity stares us all in our forlorn faces. The Boko Haram insurgency, which the government claimed to have decimated or ‘technically defeated’ back in 2016 hits the North-Eastern axis much harder, claiming more lives of ill-equipped soldiers and the hapless citizens. Add that to the killing spree by armed herders and bandits, especially in the Middle Belt states, kidnapping for ransom, armed robbery and escalating incident of ritual murders?
Not too surprising therefore, Nigeria’s Human Development Index (HDI) is currently worrisome. Our health status is so parlous that the infant and maternal mortality rates are still on the rise. The country has become the global capital of the pitiable pit of extreme poverty. As many as over 10 million citizens lost their jobs over the past three years. In the education sector, Nigeria has the highest number of out- of- school children put at 13. 2 million. But that is not all.
The debt profile has escalated, hitting N22.37 trillion in June, with the inexcusable drift of using debt to service more debt! This must be the first time this is happening in the country. And one cannot but ask if we no longer have revenues from export of crude oil, the Customs Service, the NPA and from the Value Added Tax, VAT.
One other critical issue that has become obvious is that Nigerians are more divided along ethnic, religious and political sentiments than ever before. The situation has been worsened by an appointment structure that has 15 out of the 17 top shot security architecture favouring the North, under the Buhari-led administration.
That explains why Atiku keeps clamouring for a holistic restructuring of our mindset, the polity, security and economy. States would control their resources and pay a percentage of the tax revenue to the less bloated centre as it was during the First Republic. The federal government will then hands off education, healthcare delivery, infrastructural development and transportation to the states and concentrate on the Army, the Foreign Affairs and regulatory activities. It would engender fiscal discipline and encourage creative ways of increasing IGR
Going by his pan-Nigeria disposition in the employment of his staff and the wise choice of Dr. Peter Obi as his running mate, Atiku should be able to build bridges across all these divides. He should also gain the favour of not only the Ibo ethnic group people that has, inexplicably been long-denied the presidency of the Nigerian nation over the decades but that of patriots who passionately believe in equity and fairness. Good to note to that he has mended the once-broken fence with his erstwhile oga on top, Chief Obasanjo. Even at that there still hurdles to scale.
Some of these obstacles are the power of APC ‘s incumbency, the allegations of the unholy alliance between security forces and the APC hierarchy, not helped by the presence of the security chiefs at the recent flag-off of the APC campaigns during the launch of the ‘Next Level’ manifesto. What about the allegation of cloning of PVCs? We have to add the violence-prone governorship re-run election in Osun state, the sudden courting of favour of market women with Trader-Moni seen as a covert vote buying. Then there is the muzzling of the opposition, as recently exhibited in Akwa-Ibom state where ejected lawmakers tried to put legislative activities on hold.
Furthermore, the APC, known for its well-oiled propaganda machinery would keep branding the PDP as that riddled with crass corruption in high places. Though this may have gained some currency, especially in Buhari’s first two years in office but a long list of screaming allegations of fraud under this administration, paints it otherwise.
These allegations include that against former SGF, Babachir Lawal, the Baru and Mainagates as well as that of NEMA involving the VP, Osinbajo. They are too weighty to be set aside with a wave of hand.
The PDP could latch on all these and the internal crises bedeviling the APC, with the preferred governorship candidates of Governors Ibikunle Amosun and Rochas Okorocha of Ogun and Imo states respectively to do it in. Nonetheless, Atiku and his party should rev up their efforts in unity to sell his candidature to the nooks and crannies of the country. These would see him achieving his long-running political ambition-the exalted office of the presidency and get Nigeria working again!
END
Be the first to comment