The All Progressives Congress is an amalgam of disparate coalition of interests hurriedly put together in 2014 as a (to use a financial jargon), “Special Purpose Vehicle”, for the singular aim of wresting power from the then ruling Peoples Democratic Party, which had been in power for 16 unbroken years, and had hitherto vowed to “rule” Nigeria for 60 years. For wrestling the PDP to the ground alone, the APC has succeeded beyond the wildest dreams of its founders. It was the ultimate expression of money, organisation and the politician’s abiding belief in a fairy tale ending. That the fairy tale did indeed become reality is one of the most significant political occurrences in memory, certainly in this country, and more generally, on the continent of Africa.
Putting aside the misnomer “Progressives” in the party’s chosen name, the bulk of its initial momentum derived from defections of key establishment figures from the ruling Conservative-leaning PDP. And, also not minding the fact that it had no clearly thought-out programme for government to back up its rhetoric of “change”, its emergence as the governing party within a short space of time is, nonetheless, remarkable as it shows the limit of the power of incumbency and the possibility of politics as a vehicle for advancing change in a broader sense.
In mature democracies, parties of government are usually coalitions of varied interests anchored on their history, ideology and tradition. A party of government is often referred to as a “broad church” where everyone is welcome as they all sing from the same hymn book. What makes the APC so unique in our own environment is that it is a party with no antecedent to fall back on, no history to guide its future conduct, certainly no ideology and no tradition to speak of. In short, it is a “broad church”, where members bring their own peculiar, tailored hymn books into a cacophony of songs inside the congregation. That it has remained steadfast and on course for victory at the next election is baffling; it is a tribute to both the guile of President Muhammadu Buhari and the genius of Bola Tinubu in particular. How have they managed it?
There is no gainsaying that no one was more surprised to be handed the reins of power than the current President, Muhammadu Buhari, himself. He has given testaments to this several times. Being so unprepared for government meant that many things had to be grappled with almost on an ad hoc basis for Buhari and Tinubu, both of whom subsequently emerged as “party leader” and “national leader” of the APC respectively. It is the archetypal two captains on a ship situation, itself, unprecedented in African politics. Never in the history of politics in this country have two individuals with sharply contrasting comportment, demeanours, values and world views come together in a governing coalition. The power play that has been bubbling under the surface inside the APC since the defeat of the PDP in 2015, serves to highlight this anomaly. The tension has tended to be destructive at times, but has generally been creative in the main. Having cobbled together the financial muscle, power, vision and organisational prowess that gave birth to the APC, former Governor Tinubu moved from being just another battle-hardened Lagos politician to a national icon, acquiring the status of a demi-god amongst his disciples almost overnight. With the APC comfortably installed inside Aso Rock (Nigeria’s Presidential Villa), Tinubu came close to having what Lord Acton famously warned as “absolute power”, which tends to “corrupt absolutely”.
Alarmed at this prospect, many inside the party did their best to “take control” of the party away from his dominant influence. These people, the “Buharisters”, (some might say party hacks), coalesced around President Buhari. They were pitted against the Tinubuists; the grassroots storm troopers up and down the country who would lay down their lives for the “Jagaban” and his cause. Right in the middle of this duo are the boisterous, media savvy, ruthlessly ambitious men (and women) of ideas, the “Young Turks” as it were, broadly classified as the intelligentsias in the party. This triumvirate forms the pillars upon which the sole of the party delicately hangs.
Soon after the last general elections, the Young Turks made waves inside the party to assert themselves and more so, to trim Tinubu’s dominance by pitting the “party leader” (Mr. President), against the “national leader” of the party (Tinubu). They appeared to have held sway for a while, but they do not seem to have studied the phenomenon of Tinubu, the man, very well. For all the bravura and his braggadocios, Tinubu is a quiet, reflective man, who has given the “problem with Nigeria” some thought. He is a free marketeer to the core; an ardent capitalist with an abundance of social conscience. He is a controversial figure who lives and lets live, but is also keen on being his brother’s keeper. His political philosophy is one of a wider participatory democracy in which every politics is “local”. A healthy rivalry between regional political blocs advances rather than diminishes the interest of the collective whole. Consequently, for Tinubu and his followers, devolution of powers is a sine-qua-non of a stable and “progressive” Nigeria.
Buhari, by contrast, believes in continuity and gradualism. He is from the front-line civil war generation that frets over any talk of “restructuring” Nigeria for fear it might re-ignite the pre-civil war antipathy amongst major ethnic groups in the country. He believes in the power of the centre to maintain Nigeria’s cohesion. His benign authoritarian approach to governance is traceable to his military antecedents, where order is always the first (and sometimes the only) item on the agenda. Buhari is amiable, but not clubbable. Tinubu, on the other hand, is an extrovert, in-your-face type of politician. With him, what you see is what you get. Both of these individuals often appear to be getting on like a house on fire (they recognise the necessity), but the truth is they loathe each other with a passion. That notwithstanding, they both love and revel in the privilege of wielding power and the responsibilities that it brings. Both have been driven to the edge of the abyss several times in the life of the party, looked down, and did not like what they saw, then, pulled back. They are the Cain and Abel of modern Nigerian politics.
If the APC ship appears rudderless at times, the explanation can usually be gleaned from this internal dynamics. The party’s henchmen have just acquired a new taste for power and trust me, they are in no rush to give it up by tearing each other apart. The mistake some of them are making though is that retention of power is more than just having a wish list; it is inextricably linked to performance. In this wise, a major proportion of the Nigerian public does not see any tangible benefit from the APC government – yet. In power for a little over three years, the government already looks tired and bereft. There is no single “signature” achievement that the party can dangle in front of the electorate next year in their quest for a second term. My advice, for whatever it is worth, is that there is a need for a major reshuffle of the Cabinet to bring in a couple of political heavyweights into the fold to give the government a desperately needed facelift, and a new momentum.
The APC went into the election last time and won on a blank slate. Everyone quickly filled in the blank with their own expectation and goal for the new government. No wonder, then, that so many people have felt let down by its “non-performance” even though this would be a fairly harsh conclusion to draw from a government that has stabilised the economy in terms of inflation and growth, stemmed the corrupt haemorrhaging of funds from the treasury, and is diversifying the economy from its heavy reliance on petrol, to name but three. That said, there is equally a sizeable number of the electorate in this country who are determined to give the APC government the benefit of the doubt by re-electing them for another term. These two centrifugal forces are currently at play in the country at large. It is not too late for the APC to change the narrative before the PDP or the yet unknown ‘third force’ does it for them. The clock is ticking.
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