Friday Musings with Ayo Olukotun ayo_olukotun@yahoo.com 07055841236
At the heart of scientific inquiry is the formulation of theoretical assumptions or hypotheses, conventionally left open for the purpose of empirical testing or verification. I never forget the sternness and emphatic voice, with which one of my lecturers reminded the class that, “When your theoretical assumptions can neither be verified nor tested, then you are knocking at the door of dogma, rather than science”.
Of course, much public debate, especially on political affairs, is ridden with dogma, circuitous and self-confirming statements, and partisan assertions, obvious only to the speaker. Nowhere is this more the case than in an assessment of leaders like President Muhammadu Buhari, who went through a rough, underperforming patch, in his first term, partly due to ill-health, and a lack adequate preparation for governance. Attempts, though still tentative, to reset the pace, style and character of governance, have been greeted with cynicism in quarters, which have for too long scoffed at his inertia and perceived lack of firm grasp on governance issues. So, we have something like a carryover mindset, in which opinions formed in an earlier season, preclude a fresh examination of new evidence, pointing to a modicum of dynamism. Not to be misunderstood, this piece is not a whitewash of the fledgling second term of the President, around which no settled, irreversible conclusions can be drawn; rather, it seeks to discern whether recent interventions add up to a fresh momentum, a new brio, derived from improved health and angling for lasting impact.
Although governance problems remain in several areas, what is of interest is a willingness to take initiatives in tackling some of the most outstanding issues. For example, in July, Buhari became the face of a fresh deal between Nigeria and the German company, Siemens AG, over the resuscitation of a laggard power sector, through a contract for the company to provide 25,000 megawatts, over a period of six years. The deal is a spinoff from high level diplomatic negotiations between Buhari and the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel. If all goes well, the event will replicate the miracle of the company’s upgrade of electricity supply in Egypt, believed to be one of the most successful on the continent. The issue here is that Buhari weighed in, and directly took over one of the most chronic governance dysfunctions in the country. Obviously, it will take a while for the deal to produce the expected turnaround; however, this is one of the ways in which he has raised the ante, in what appears to be a departure from an earlier unimpressive pace.
There is to be considered, too, the fact that this year is one of the few times in which the inauguration of federal ministers was preceded by a retreat, which sought to put them on the same page with the administration’s policies, and in a later update, to broach the idea of mandate and action plans by which the ministers’ performance will be judged. In other words, the idea is resonating that it will not be business as usual, but that ministers, and by extension other appointees of government will be held down to performance matrices, in order to ensure that they live up to their billings. In this connection, it should be noted, however, that it is necessary to go beyond performance matrices to build a holistic performance culture, as a backdrop for the changes envisaged. Nonetheless, if followed through, the policy is capable of yielding new dividends.
This apart, one can discern fresh energy in the robust response of government to the crisis of xenophobia in South Africa, typified by the flurry of diplomatic activities, which included the sending of a Special Envoy by Buhari to South Africa, expression of stern displeasure to the South African authorities, airlifting of endangered Nigerians from South Africa, by a local airline, Air Peace, among other measures. The apology tendered to Nigeria and other African countries, by the South African president, Cyril Ramaphosa, is a response to Nigeria’s tough diplomatic posture. As this columnist argued last week, nonetheless, there is more to be done to make Nigeria more inviting, more habitable, more secure, in order to prevent the exodus of bright talents abroad. What we have as of now is the familiar threnody of the Nigerian immigrant, who chants in Yoruba, ‘Ile n le wa, ona n na wa’ (we are being driven away from home by affliction, our sojourn in a foreign land is trauma-ridden). That is another way of saying that the current postures, edifying as they are, will not give the needed respite, unless they are rooted in broader measures to make Nigeria a destination. Despite that, we cannot gloss over a new departure in pace and style.
Another issue worth mentioning is a slightly improved security regimen, as a result of determined focus, to halt the scourge of relentless kidnapping, and killings. True, the hydra has not been slain, but a temporary, if reversible submission has been extracted by a mixture of force and strangely, in the case of Katsina State, unusual tactics of buying peace and freedom for kidnapped citizens, through amnesty for bandits. Insecurity still surges, here and there, as in the recent killing of a Professor of Mathematics at the Ondo State University of Science and Technology, Prof. Gideon Okedayo, but there is a new combativeness in place of the lost opportunities of the past. The appointment of an Economic Advisory Council has predictably run into controversy, because of the allegation that it was meant to whittle down and marginalise Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo, who headed an Economic Management Team, during Buhari’s first term. However that controversy goes, there is another reading that Buhari may be sketching out an economic policy, more nationalistic, more mercantilist, than what hitherto prevailed. It is another matter however, whether this can be achieved through an advisory council, consisting of eminent, but strange bedfellows, in terms of economic policies. Although it muddies the water, the appointment may illustrate that Buhari intends to write his own script, rather than merely delegate responsibility.
There is, of course, a flip side to my thesis on improved governance mien, in such areas, hitherto untouched, such as the persisting deficit in quality education, the subtle denial of human rights, through police fiat, shenanigans to maintain northern hold on power beyond Buhari’s tenure, continued tolerance of the influence of a cabal on policy as well as the blind spot regarding the inclusive religious and ethnic mandates of Nigerian governance architecture. It is possible, however, that if the current tentative momentum is sustained, and if wise counsel prevails, Buhari may come to see that he needs to address these other issues as well.
Time will tell, whether what has been spelt out here, in terms of a new willingness, the much-talked-about political will to address governance issues, adds up to a fresh departure, or it is merely a flash in the pan. It is important, however, to avoid the extremes of premature adulation and unthinking dismissal of improvement and changes in style and pace. As of now, however, it is important to notice little beginnings, in some aspects of governance, while thanking God, and Buhari, for starting out, this time round, in a more encouraging, and less cheerless manner.
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