In case you missed it, last Thursday, December 12, 2019, the UK, whose full name is; the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, overwhelmingly voted for Boris Johnson and his Conservative Party whose main agenda is to take the country out of the European Union by the end of January 2020, after 46 years of uneasy membership. The UK is an amalgam (or union if you prefer) of four distinct entities; England (56 million), Scotland (six million), Wales (three million) and Northern Ireland (two million). The combination of all four is what constitutes the United Kingdom. Although the constituent nations are semi-autonomous, living under both united and separate flags, especially, Scotland, with its own parliament, long history, education, and legal systems, they are constitutionally tied to the Monarch, Queen Elizabeth II, and her successors. The Monarchy (i.e. the state) retains sole jurisdiction over revenue allocation, defence and foreign policy. Brexit cuts across all three. The more reason why this is significant is that the electorate in England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland had vastly differing views of what “Brexit” meant in practice. While the English electorate overwhelmingly interpreted it to mean leaving the European Union, come what may, the electorate in the other constituent nations had vastly divergent interpretations; a majority did not support the idea of leaving the EU. England, though, has the highest proportion of the electorate, and since the Conservative Party now commands a majority in the UK Parliament, it can steamroller Brexit through regardless of any opposition. But, there is danger.
What represents an existential threat to the EU as an entity, (i.e., a prominent member pulling out of the union), precisely represents a similar threat to the UK as one whole entity. Furthermore, what made it possible for the UK to rip itself apart from the EU was narrow nationalism; populist nationalism of the “them” and “us” variety usually associated with elements of the far-right. Having successfully manipulated its jingoistic sentiments for the political end of leaving the EU and its “unaccountable bureaucracy”, telling “us” how to run our lives, according to the Conservatives, the same line-by-line nationalist rhetoric is now, ironically, being deployed mercilessly by the forces within the UK who wish to rip apart the union. Be careful what you wish for… you might get too much of it. The Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) is the dominant party in Scotland (birthplace of the economist, Adam Smith), and has made it clear it wishes to become independent from the UK, in order to run its own affairs without being “bossed around” by England. How long this inexorable move will take to come to fruition is anybody’s guess at the moment, but be in no doubt, the starting gun has been fired. The Welsh electorate voted in favour of remaining in the EU, although not clamouring for independence – for now. Opinion in Northern Ireland is gingerly shifting towards re-unification with the UK’s neighbour, the Republic of Ireland, whose northern territory was seized and converted into a UK homeland long ago by the mightier British Army.
What is sauce for the goose, they say, is also sauce for the gander. Potential fragmentation of the EU by Brexit is one thing, and could be, a fortiori, the foundation for the eventual disintegration of the UK itself. It is an unintended, but entirely foreseeable consequence; the domino effect of a short-term, and utterly myopic political agenda by Boris Johnson and the bunch of ultra “Brexiteers” currently running the Conservative Party. Although we are witnessing the long goodbye to the EU from the UK (it will take at least a couple of years to finalise a new trade deal), more tellingly, if Scotland had its way, the “Great” may be about to drop off the UK’s long and lofty name tag as well.
From Nigeria’s point of view, Britain outside the EU would, willy-nilly, bring the UK closer to us in Africa, but Brexit would diminish Britain’s standing in world affairs in the long run, so, the benefit of a closer Britain to Africa would be undercut by that fact. With no powerful economic platform of the EU to stand on, Britain will henceforth be trotting the globe as some kind of a lone ranger, trying hard to punch above its weight. The puzzling question many observers are asking is why the considerable political opposition to Brexit in the UK was not sufficiently galvanised to stem this dangerous tide?
The answer mainly lies in the characters; the dramatis personae at the helm of the two major parties in the UK: Conservative and Labour, headed by Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn respectively. The former is a public school boy, privately educated with a solid upper class background. Being the son of a high-flying stockbroker, Boris was born with the proverbial silver spoon in his mouth, but despite this, has managed to turn himself into “Boris”; a likable, bubbly, boorish, jack-the-lad, figure of fun in his quest for power, which he has now achieved. Boris is not known for his mastery of policy details or departmental briefs, and had blatantly refused to submit himself to an election grilling by Andrew Neil, the BBC’s most forensic television interviewer, who had turned the other political leaders into shreds in his “leaders’ interviews” with them. Boris dodged the bullet, to the chagrin of the other leaders who fell for it. Boris comes across as free-flowing, unscripted and not welded to political correctness as is often the case with top politicians. He was a winner in the eyes of the voters. By contrast, the Labour opposition leader cuts a more avuncular (if naively idealistic) figure. His personal background could not be starker: working class, who (still) lives in a modest inner-city dwelling, a former trade union and political activist bent on overturning global capitalism in favour of socialism. Prior to becoming Labour leader, he had ingratiated himself with all notable revolutionary groups fighting against “the system” at home and abroad.
Corbyn became leader almost by accident, as no one took him seriously when he threw his hat into the ring in the Labour party’s leadership election in 2015. Nonetheless, his clarion call for a “radical transformation” of society at the time struck a chord with grassroots party membership, and parachuted him straight onto the leadership, never having held any office during his 30-year stint as a trenchant rebel Member of Parliament. That very fact ultimately became his undoing, as he carried on almost as if he was still an activist, anti-establishment ground stomper, and not someone about to be burdened with the responsibility of running the fifth largest capitalist economy in the world. He failed spectacularly to connect with the electorate at large. His position on the biggest issue of the day, Brexit, was to propose another round of referendums, whereby he, personally, would not take a stand one way or the other, but instead, play the “honest broker” in whatever decision made by the public. The British establishment in cahoots with the media made sure he was severely thrashed and put right back in the box where they think he belongs: his inner-city constituency as a local Member of Parliament. He has since announced his resignation as leader of the Labour party. The dilemma for the establishment, however, is how to disentangle from the nationalist fervour which had worked for them so well in achieving Brexit, for, that same nationalist fervour is about to be turned inward by domestic forces, and against the very existence of the UK as an entity. The Gini, I am afraid, is out of the bottle.
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