In what the major candidates promised to do for Nigeria, defeating Boko Haram did not feature prominently. Yet, that may be the winner’s greatest challenge right next to revving up the economy. Information Minister Lai Mohammed hinted as much when he recently launched a campaign to canvas public support for the military in coping with that challenge.
It is the first time that the administration is admitting that Boko Haram remains a major threat. Yet not long after Lai’s expression of dire concern, President Muhammadu Buhari contradicted him and reasserted the view that Boko Haram is a spent force.
“We have 774 local governments in this country. They (Boko Haram) used to hold 17. They are not technically holding any local government now,” Buhari told CNN Africa, according to a report in The PUNCH.
“But they are indoctrinating young men and women, especially girls, wrap them up with explosives and let them explode in soft targets like churches, mosques, marketplaces, motor parks and other places.”
Apparently, the information minister is more concerned about canvassing public support for the military than updating his own boss. While Lai talks about a tested fighting force, Buhari talks of girls exploding bombs at soft targets. Even as Boko Haram sacked at least one major military outpost and re-occupied Baga, Buhari says they are not “technically” in control of any local government.
As Lai said and international sources confirm, a major faction of Boko Haram has now actualised its earlier announcement that it has become the Islamic State West Africa Province or ISWAP. And as the Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month, the battle for Baga in December reflected that transformation.
“The battle began with two small drones buzzing over a base where more than 500 Nigerian troops guarded the shores of Lake Chad,” the Journal reported. “Then came the clatter of gunfire from a column of armoured cars, artillery units and tanks that also blasted jihadist battle songs from mounted speakers.”
“Within hours, the Nigerian troops melted away,’’ the Journal continued.
Among the soldiers who fled was Sergeant Bitrus Madu, who told a Journal’s reporter that it took him three days of trekking through a forest to get away. “We were sitting ducks,” Madu told the reporter. “The terrorists control the whole region now.”
I am inclined to believe that Lai’s and Madu’s take on the situation is the reality and Buhari’s is an illusion that he continues to entertain. If Buhari is re-elected, Lai will probably sit him down and come up with a more accurate talking point on Boko Haram. If he loses, then his successor will have no choice but to get a grip on the intensified crisis.
Unanswered questions
The battle against Boko Haram has lasted about a decade now. Over that period, there have been many embarrassing losses and encouraging victories. There have been notable acquisitions of weapons. The military have received considerable foreign assistance in the forms of training and intelligence gathering.
That an outpost manned by more than 500 soldiers could be so easily overran raises troubling questions. The most notable is that of intelligence gathering. That is a considerable challenge in dealing with stealthy guerillas. But a Boko Haram army that uses drones, armoured tanks and artilleries can’t possibly be stealthy. Why did military intelligence fail to detect and pre-empt the attack? Why were our troops “sitting ducks?”
In expressing the dire threat Boko Haram is posing, Lai called for people’s “support and prayers.” That should be easy enough. Nigeria is a praying nation. We even pray for the national football team to win its World Cup matches.
What people would like to know, however, is what the government is doing to ensure that our troops are never again routed by Boko Haram, regardless of how tested and sophisticated the terrorist may be. If Boko Haram are now using drones in battle, how soon will it be before they deploy jet fighters and bombers?
Chief of Army Staff Tukur Buratai has merely promised that the insurgency will be dealt with swiftly this time round. Nigerians have heard that several times before, dating back to the Jonathan presidency. And in expressing that bravado, Brutai undercuts the gravity that Lai conveyed.
“Those who do not understand the fresh threat facing our nation, nor appreciate the sacrifice of our troops, have now made it their pastime to wage a campaign of disinformation against the military, especially in the social media,” Lai have lamented. “Doctored videos and pictures purporting to show mass military casualties are willfully circulated online. Such unpatriotic acts are discouraging and demoralising our troops, and must stop forthwith.”
But what is there to expect when the administration is sending mixed messages on Boko Haram and so feeding the frenzied pathos of social media.
Allies or adversaries
Lai’s threatening statement is quite at odds with his quest to canvas public support for the military. Solidarity cannot be compelled. Even as information minister, he seems oblivious of the fact that social media is a beast that can’t readily be tamed. Its premises cannot be invaded and ransacked the way newspaper establishments are.
And while on that, Nigerian soldiers recently invaded the premises of the Daily Trust newspapers in connection with some “sensitive information” the paper reportedly had. The ransacking is another mixed message to Nigerians as to whether the administration is seeking solidarity in the war against Boko Haram.
The Trust group, of all newspapers, has been most sympathetic to the Buhari administration. In fact, recently the Daily Trust acquiesced to pressure from the administration and dropped a Saturday column written by fellow US-based academic and columnist, Farooq Kperogi.
As he stated in a blog, the paper’s editor-in-chief assured him that it wasn’t because of any deficiencies in the column. It was dropped because of its unsparing critique of the Buhari administration.
If then the army would be allowed to invade the offices of the Daily Trust, no other media houses are safe. In effect, the administration is pursuing two contradictory policies: to repress reporting on Boko Haram while seeking public solidarity. That’s schizophrenic.
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