This country is a summary of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Yemen, located on the southern rim of the region, is where Saudi Arabia and Iran contend for regional supremacy. It’s become the battleground of nations that have a point to prove. Report has it that some 7,000 people have been killed since 2015. A few days ago, over 140 mourners attending a funeral were killed in air strikes. Saudi Arabia said its fighters killed these Yemenis by mistake. It’s one of the several fallout of the Riyadh-Teheran power play. Apart from Iraq and Syria, Yemen is the other hot spot in the Middle East where intense battles are going on. Riyadh and Teheran are involved in all. Although these two are unavoidably part of this narrative, they aren’t meant to be the focus. Yemen is. It is the seventh nation in the weeks-long series which examine the roles of relevant actors in the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.
It’s almost impossible to take a look at Yemen without considering outsiders involved. Outsiders are the factor in the conflict that has engulfed this nation. For instance, when mourners were killed recently, watchers had promptly pointed fingers at the external actors. It turned out they were right. It’s important to state that the path Yemen took into chaos was different from Iraq’s, but similar to Syria’s. As for further developments since Yemen went up in flames, they’re essentially similar to those of these two northern neighbours.
Crisis in Yemen began in 2011 after an uprising against the leader of the country, Ali Abdullah Saleh, who had had the backing of the United States and Saudi Arabia during his time in power. This uprising led to Saleh stepping aside in 2012, while the vice-president, also an ally of the Saudis, took over. In January 2015, Houthi fighters close to troops loyal to Saleh took over a large part of Yemen as well as the capital, Sanaa. Saudi Arabia thereafter formed a coalition and began a campaign of air attacks against the new government.
But Saudi Arabia wasn’t the only nation interested in the turn of events in Yemen. Iran was too, as well as radical elements that had links with foreign Islamists which past administrations in Yemen had been battling with. As I had pointed out several times on this page, the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran shaped many of the major regional issues here. One being Sunni and the other Shia, these different religious ideologies are conveniently employed in the struggle for ascendancy. I admire nations that seek to gain ascendancy in one form or the other. This gives a nation focus, offering it a higher goal to pursue, while providing citizens with issues that serve as a rallying point. I take note that the struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran has elements similar to the communism-capitalism struggle – entrenchment of each ideology in the country of origin, exporting it, using state resources to support proponents of the ideology in other countries, deploying soft diplomacy to win the support of citizens of other countries, propping up regimes that are either pro-Saudi Arabia or pro-Iran, as well as engaging in war by proxy in other countries when the need arises.
There’s this need in Yemen, so the Saudis and the Iranians are in action. At this point, it’s important that I reiterate my position on the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. I had referred to it in previous pieces, but I need to place emphasis on it. One of the things that fascinate me in the conflicts in the Middle East, and which make me take a closer look is how nations here have on their strategic thinking caps. This ensures they are on top of the intrigues which relations among nations sometimes involve. I’m for nations which keep up with the pace of intrigues that others engage in. It means they have a keen sense of what their national interests are, and they aren’t prepared to let others outwit them on this score.
Still on intrigues among nations on the international stage, it will be recalled that the United Kingdom, France and Germany once accused the United States of spying on them, including listening in on the phone conversations of Germany’s Chancellor, Angela Merkel. These western nations are allies. I find the incident fascinating, another eye opener with respect to what nations do to one another under the radar. Generally, I clap for nations which do their best to watch over their national interests. By closely watching over its interest is how any nation can stay on top and ahead of others in international relations. Anyway, what else is a nation doing if it nurses no ambition to beat others to something? Pursuit of interest is one way to move from the bottom to becoming a respected nation. China and Russia understand this so they go as far as snooping to secretly picking latest information which western nations have in the areas of economics, military, science, and IT innovation. I consider weak views which encourage nations to seek praises as “good boys”, while they do nothing to be powers that should be reckoned with in international relations. Such views condemn a nation to existing without being a force in any area of endeavour – economic, military, science, innovations, and technology. No nation is respected that way; in fact it will be largely ignored. If any nation desires not to be ignored, it has to extend itself and this includes closely watching others to see what advantages it can gain over them. Nations that extend themselves, by diligently doing all they can to get ahead of others in economics, science, or the military get noticed, and they get the respect. This is one of the reasons the West can’t ignore China. It stridently defends its interests – for now and the future – in the South China Sea; yet the US officials must carry files to Beijing to hold trade talks. This brings me back to the conflict in Yemen, and the role of external actors.
For me, Saudi Arabia and Iran protect their individual interests in Yemen using different means, and at different venues. This speaks to me about the level of coordination in their foreign policies, as well as their level of strategic thinking. Both try to leave no space uncovered. Each looks for areas of advantage over the other. Yemen is there for the taking as an ally, and why not? Note that the strategic location of Yemen at the bend of the Red Sea and towards the Persian Gulf is vital to Saudi Arabia and Iran. With a pro-Iran administration in Sanaa, capital of Yemen, the Saudis have one more enemy on their southernmost flank. As it is, every nation in the Middle East has a significant number of Shiites. The Saudis are wary of the Shiite population anywhere. One more Shiite regime in the region is a threat to Riyadh’s internal security. It’s no wonder the Saudis go to war over the change of government in Yemen, a novel step by Riyadh’s standard.
At the time Houthi fighters took over power in 2015, they had confined Saleh’s successor, Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, to his house in Sanna. He escaped and travelled to Aden. He made an announcement that he was still in power. This provided the basis for Saudi Arabia and the US to offer support to restore Hadi. The outcome had been intense fighting between the Houthi government, Hadi’s supporters, as well as other external actors.
Both the Saudis and the Iranians have been accusing each other over the crisis in Yemen. The Houthis, the Saudis have said, are Shiites, they are proxies for Iran, and they receive weapons and training from Teheran. Eritrea that is across the Red Sea to Yemen has also been accused of sending materials from Iranian sources to the Houthis, and that it gives medical attention to the fighters. At the moment, there’re words about a possible ceasefire in the conflict in Yemen.
But lasting solutions may be harder to find as a result of the intensity with which Saudi Arabia and Iran stalk each other in the region for ascendancy, which for me is not the problem. Rather, it is whether or not both sides will give and take in spite of the rivalry.
Punch
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