The last time I checked we are still in November 2014, the time when the Nigerian economy breathed its last in the hands of President Goodluck Jonathan and his workmen. Those who hoped President Muhammadu Buhari would revive it are now doubtful about the future of Nigeria. They are afraid that Buhari is another Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, the ‘Baba go slow’ whose tenure of office as President pushed Nigeria backward with policy reversals. In a conversation we had over the weekend, a renowned writer and former presidential hopeful described Nigeria as being on a roller-coaster under the present government.
For him, this government so far is a narrative that is more subtler, more powerful, but lacking the ambition or scope. Before now, my colleague, Yemi Adebowale, wrote that ‘President Buhari hits the ground and sat down there’—a parody of the phrase, ‘to hit the ground running’. That is against expectations. So Buhari has made a name for himself as ‘President Do Nothing’ in just one month of his reign. Undoubtedly, Nigerians are not the only people who are disappointed about Buhari’s motion without movement, even the international community is a bit surprised at his act. I spoke with an American diplomat recently who despite trying very hard to conceal the truth said Nigeria really needs to move forward. We all know what that means in diplomatic phraseology. Are you surprised that you still find queues at our gas stations?
This is the truth. A friend who holds a senior-level position in one of the Oil companies told me also that President Buhari, whom he described as a ‘consensus leader’ will not deregulate the Oil sector anytime soon. He actually shocked me when he said the President has ordered the marketers to go and import fuel against popular opinion. I could sense anger in the voice of my friend as he detailed me with the account of what transpired at a meeting, where the Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo spoke to the marketers. He was particularly unhappy about the pressure of dollar on our economy and the impacts on the businessmen as everyone now goes to the black market for exchange. For instance, the government is not making it a priority to pay the marketers what it owes them and the government has asked them to go and import.
In essence, Nigerians can continue to suffer the effect. When the question was posed to Osinbajo as to the sincerity of the government in paying the marketers, he simply licked his lips and said: “The good thing about an English word is that it can be said differently, but it depends on the reputation of who is saying it.” And why is the government not interested in deregulating the Oil sector despite the fact that deregulation has gained wide acceptance, the feeler the marketers got was that it’s simply not on the card for the President because of the Northerners. Please don’t ask me what that means. But we all know the story of the regional divide between the north and the south, so Buhari may think more of Daura than Degema in his economic plan at this time. But that wasn’t the advice Buhari got from the former British Prime Minister,Tony Blair when he visited the country to congratulate him. Blair had told Buhari to demonstrate courage in his first few days of office. He told him to ride on the wings of change and take advantage of the popularity he had with the people to act on serious issues in his first few days of office. I have no doubt Blair must be disappointed that Buhari has now missed that moment. To walk Buhari through the idea, Blair gave him the picture of what happened in Indonesia, immediately after Joko Widodo was elected to lead the country last year. According to Blair, Buhari needs to think like Widodo at this critical time. As a foremost businessman without link to the political elites, Widodo was hailed as a leader who could transform Indonesia. So one of the things he did after he was inaugurated last October was to slash Indonesia’s hugely expensive and inefficient, but yet popular fuel subsidy, a policy decision which had toppled previous administrations and consistently brought people out into the streets. He decided to do it straight away. He had that goodwill and had that authority and that was the time to move. Obviously, when there was a low price of oil, it made it less painful, but it was well timed, Blair told Buhari. As if Blair already had clairvoyance eyes into the future of Buhari’s slow movement, he repeated his words in a different way.
He specifically said: “What you do in the first 100 days is important and symbolic and can also have tremendously positive repercussion for the government and throughout country. You have a limited window of opportunity to make an impact as a government.” Now, Buhari’s rating has dropped. His popularity is sagging and I’m still not sure how he will make things happen so quickly. So far, the best pictures his handlers have released in recent time have been that of him and his cows in Daura. I don’t know what that is communicating really, but if you have a good sense of perception, you’ll agree that for now, Buhari cares more about his cows than solving Nigeria’s many problems. And for Buhari’s party, the All Progressives Congress, there is something strange about how its leadership has conducted itself since the President’s inauguration. A party that promised so much has been bogged down with nonsense talks of 2019, when the party through the inaction of President Buhari is yet to demonstrate that it indeed has a roadmap for the development of Nigeria under the current administration.
The incoherency of reactions from APC leadership and individuals in the party to the crisis in the National Assembly is suggestive of a people who are traders or dealers of politics and not the leaders with the interest of Nigeria at heart. From the same party, isn’t it too early in the day to begin to call the loyalty of party leaders to question? My fear is this: the All Progressives Congress will be broken into three parts. Think of APC this way among the major shareholders, if nothing is done to curb the crisis now. We can have All for Atiku Abubakar (ALFAA) Progressives for Bola Tinubu (PROBOT) and Congress of Muhammadu Buhari (COMB). When that happens it will be ‘to your tent O Isreal! Look after your own house.’ But this is my take: Buhari still has a threshold to make things happen, he can give us the change we really want to see, only if he allows the stimulus of the job—the power of a President—to get at him so quickly without wasting more time. It is one thing I don’t want to be reminded of. I don’t want to be reminded that for his age, he has to take things slowly. And since he will be the guest of President Barack Obama on July 20 with his “advisors”, I hope he sees things differently thereafter.
THE CABLE
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