All things being equal, the presidential and national assembly elections will hold in five days time. There is no foreseeable reason they should not hold after the initial postponement. This is more so given that the two major planks on which the shift was hinged have been very substantially addressed. The liberation and recapturing of local governments, towns and villages under the stranglehold of the Boko Haram insurgents have reasonably progressed. So also is the distribution of the PVC.
The other matter of whether or not to deploy the card readers is now at the table of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), in the sense that it is its prerogative to decide when and how to use them if it is fully satisfied with the outcome of the trials. Though, those experimental outings came out with some hitches, it is to be expected that the electoral body has taken note of them making, amends where necessary.
Expectations are high that this set of elections should come and go. So much heat has been generated by this particular election that Nigerians are eager to have them pass by. The eagerness is not as much for any personal interest or enthusiasm but because of the general belief that this election could make or mar the country. Many are therefore desirous to have the elections pass by for them to resume their normal lives.
Before now, many of our citizens living outside their ancestral homes had fled those areas for fear that harm may come their way. Many more are likely to flee days before the elections especially those residing in the northern parts of the country and Abuja. This is not a matter of speculation. Neither can it be dismissed as the doomsday prediction of an arm chair Journalist. It is real. The fear is palpable that unmitigated violence is likely to breakout thereafter irrespective of who wins. And in this regard, we have in mind the presidential election which at any rate comes first. There is general apprehension that its outcome is most likely to be disputed. And when such disputes arise, they manifest in violence often leading to the destruction of lives and property. This is more so as the election is viewed rightly or wrongly as a defining moment for the nation’s corporate survival. Two factors account for this. The first has to do with the history of elections on these shores and the penchant by politicians not to accept defeat even when there is sufficient evidence they lost. This conclusion is very evident from the plethora of litigations that follow elections on these shores. Even where losers are known to have conceded defeat, congratulated their opponents with a promise not to challenge such verdict, it has been very disappointing seeing the same people reverse themselves only to proceed to the tribunals later. This election is unlikely to depart from this ruinous pattern. There is even more reasons for it to assume more dangerous dimension than previous ones.
And this brings us to the second point. Despite whatever pretences one may wish to make, the election is largely seen from the prism of ethnic and religious lines. These factors have been palpable in the language of political discourses since campaigns began and even before then. The north wants power return to it as a matter of right. The south-south wants one of its own currently occupying that position to be given another term of four years before power can now move. There is yet to be any national consensus on the matter and we are going to the elections with such destabilizing and potentially explosive tendencies.
There have also been threats from here and there if certain events go certain ways during this election. Accusing fingers have been pointed at each other by the major political parties. We have been inundated with accusations of plans by the political parties to rig the elections especially the ruling party. INEC has not been spared on this. If anything, the recent demonstrations in Lagos by some ethnic militias asking for the sack of Jega can only add to the general foul air that now surrounds the coming elections.
The net effect of all these is the likelihood that the outcome of the election is likely to be disputed, especially so if there are observed lapses from the arrangements put in place by the electoral body. It would even seem to me that people are likely to be looking out for faults to discredit the elections.
When we pair this observation with the high stakes of the election, one can then understand the stark reality that awaits this country in the next few days. But elections are not an end unto themselves but means for the advancement of public good. If that is the proper conception of the matter, why must hell let loose because one political party or individual failed to realize his ambition? Why has ethnicity and religion become prime considerations that determine the direction of the power matrix in this country? And if our leaders emerge on the basis of such mundane platforms, can they really pass as nationally acceptable leaders? Can they in all fairness, still remain loyal to the central authority irrespective of their attachment and loyalty to primordial considerations? These are some of the moot issues.
Again, why are we simulating obstacles so as to find a convenient ground to wrestle the electoral body to the ground? And what of the likely consequences of such on the general wellbeing of the ordinary people that are being promised heaven and earth if they vote in a particular way? These are some of the contradictions arising from the polluted atmosphere that pervades the political atmosphere as we go into the elections.
If blames are to be apportioned, the political class is largely culpable for heating up the political environment. And the reasons for this are largely self-serving. The same political elite that have despoiled this country, mortgaging its future are at it again. And in the pursuit of their personal interests, they have now mobilized the common people against each other.
It is the same common people that will bear the brunt of whatever adverse repercussions that may arise out of a contentious election.
If the overall interest of the people is the prime factor for seeking political office, nothing should be done to throw this country into crisis whatever the outcome of the polls. Our laws are replete with established processes for redress and those who feel shortchanged should avail themselves of such avenues. There must be conscious efforts to redirect this country from the part of a self-fulfilling prophesy of disintegrating this year. That is the huge challenge before us.
Above all, much still depends on the INEC on the day of the election. The elections must not only be free and fair but must be seen to be so. Already, the electoral body has been put on edge. It does appear the electorate is not prepared to take excuses from it. It must therefore work hard to deliver to Nigerians an outcome that will give no room for acrimony. That is the surest way of disappointing those who are waiting for the slightest infractions to cause trouble.
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