With Niger Delta’s avenging groups now nearing a dozen, it ought to be obvious to everyone that the nightmare of a nation hung on hydrocarbons is not about to end anytime soon.At least not with the number of groups sworn to bring the oil industry and by extension, the nation to its knees growing day by day; and certainly not with each new group claiming to hold the franchise to the latest enterprise in town – the quest for wealth without work.Nigerians are obviously in for a long dark night.
Today, the signs are unmistakable. Our gas turbines cannot run because there is no gas to power no thanks to the ability of the avengers to put thevital artery carrying gas outof business. The result: a nation that peaked at 5,000 MW in distributed power barely a year ago currently struggles to share 2,000MW or less. Our crude exports, the main source of foreign exchange,fare no better. With 2.2 million barrels crude production projected for the 2016 budget, the nation currently struggles to get 1.6 million barrels into what is itself a depressed global oil market. And this at a time some 27 states depend on handouts from the federal government.
You canunderstand the basis of the metamorphosis of a President who only a while agoin a fit of righteous angerpromised to give those behind the mindless savaging of the nation’s vital infrastructures the Boko haram treatment.The President has merely opted to count the opportunity costs of extracting the crude to the market!
To be sure, the success or otherwise of a military expedition could mean just about everything. We know that means; it could be the surest route to Gbaramatu 11 and perhaps Amnesty 11. That routeobviously discounts the possibility of failure against the disparate groups whose mastery of the creeksappears unrivalled at least compared with our fighting men;a group whose capacity for mindless destruction seems beyond comprehension.
Does anyone still wonderwhy thePresident now seeks rather desperately to engage the amorphous groups going as far asinvoking God to touch the heart of those‘wayward children’?And the militants that continue to raise the stakes which each passing day?
It is all about economics – the economy of a federal government threatened by bankruptcy and that of the free-wheeling militants currently under the threat of obliteration by the federal government. Both are desperately seeking accommodation and possibly a bailout!
That is why I am amused by the current talks about war. War for what – when there is so much to lose and very little to gain? Forget all the show of force and the sabre rattling on either side; both parties certainly recognise that the war is unwinnable.
Not for a federal government hung on Niger Delta’s oil; war at this time, apart from unsettling everything that the Buhariadministration has put in place will most certainly prolong the agonies of Nigerians yearning for improvements in their socio-economic conditions. With the economy in tatters and the infrastructures in dire straits, the pressure on the federal government to perform obviously leaves little room for the costlydistractionof a long drawn war.
In any case, why would anyone declare a war whose outcome is as uncertain as it is unpredictable? Why not put some settlement ideas on the table to buy the peace even if tends to proverbially kicking the problem down the road?
The militants are a different kettle altogether. Never mind their opportunistic posturing; they have even more reasons to loathe any war.True, they have tasted blood and have in some way acquired an awesome sense of power. Yes, they know the Niger Delta terrain so well and so can teach the biggest military on the continent a lesson or two about creek combat. But then, to what purpose? By the way, since when did those pricey SUVs, which they love to show off to lesser mortals in the region begin to run the dangerous creeks?
A Niger Delta republic – minus the Itshekiri, Urhobo, Ikwere, Anang, Ibibio and the Efik?
Trust me; the avengers know better than risk lives and limbs for such high ideals; not even such ideals as justice or equity – social or environmental. Guess if they knew, they would think twice about sacrificing their home and hearth through mindless destruction of pipelines for the joy of some assumed short term gratification. As for examples, they have Government Tompolos, the Asari Dokubos and their erstwhile comrades in arms to point at; dealers or traders who have made good on the militancy while their region suffered further pillaging and retrogression.
Where do go from here? President Muhammadu Buhari obviously means well. No doubt, he wants to do good by the people of the Niger Delta. In the 2016 budget for instance, he wants a brand new Lagos to Calabar railways, a project, which if implemented, will open the vast region to accelerated development. Hopefully too, the East-West road will also come into fruition. Whereas the path to development can be sometimes tortuous and slow, he pleads again and again that the people should give him time. I understand that the people of Niger Delta, like their counterparts in other parts of the country, not only desire the good life but want it so fast.While that is bothreasonable and legitimate, the problem has always been the kind of good life as understood by the militants – a life defined by hedonism.
That is where the president and by extension, the nation’s dilemma derive.
Can the President afford not to given in to demands of the militants and by so doing risk further pains for the already impoverished but increasingly impatient Nigerians? Will giving in to the demands of the militants not occasion the emergence of more splinter groups? What about the ordinary Niger Delta folk, far removed from the animosities, who want to live his life in peace and desire a better future for his children and future generations?
And what about Nigeria – a nation forced to endure the pain of humiliation and blackmail in the hands of these outlaws?And when will this end?
It is a tough choice for the President.
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