It shouldn’t be pedestrian and preposterous to assert that the race for 2019 presidency began long before Nigerians voted in the presidential election that held on March 28, 2015. The permutations that threw up incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari as the choice of the power brokers were orchestrated by the convergence of personal and opportunistic political interests. Beyond the primary persuasion of the oligarchy in rallying support for Buhari as the ultimate joker for wrestling the presidency from Goodluck Jonathan, there was also the imperative to avert the haze of post-election crises that became so palpable in the event of the election producing a different outcome. More importantly, it was not without conditions, objective or subjective that the power brokers endorsed Buhari in 2015. The unity of purpose was not without the perceptive or an unwritten code anchored on the assurance that Buhari would not be seeking re-election.
It may be irrelevant to now begin to wonder how, in all sincerity and in good conscience, anyone could have imagined a sitting Nigerian president; arguably one of the most powerful executive heads of state around the world would willingly jettison the lure of a second term in office. The truth, however, remains that the interests of the power brokers became unified by certain discernment that the presidential seat would, willy-nilly be up for grabs in 2019. Therefore beyond the concern of ill-health or reason of performance which will count against Buhari’s re-election bid, the primary consideration of the oligarchy will be to secure its primary interest and to remain relevant as the ultimate power broker. As the race for 2019 gathers momentum, the renewed interest of power brokers in the affairs of opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) reinforces the reality and should therefore not be surprising. The hysteria elicited by the defection of former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar only represents a prelude to the intense scheming sure to dominate most part of the year 2018. While it remains uncertain how the power oligarchy will respond or handle the second term bid of President Buhari, it should, however, be clear that their interest will, as usual, be at variance with the collective aspiration of the electorate who are in overwhelming majority.
It was clear the decision by the PDP to adopt the then president Jonathan as its sole candidate truncated the ambitions of gladiators who were forced to embark on time-serving excursion in All Progressive Congress (APC). Unlike ex-governor Sule Lamido of Adamawa state who didn’t see the need for the political sabbatical offered by the APC, former Vice-President Abubakar Atiku and now embattled erstwhile Kano strongman; ex-governor Rabiu Kwankwaso knew well ahead that their participation in the APC presidential primaries against Buhari was mere fantasies after all. Contrary to the impression created in the heat of the electioneering, Atiku and Kwankwaso didn’t get their noses bruised in that ‘friendly’ APC presidential primaries as it were but only deplored the venture into testing the waters in the budding political habitat which, at the moment, looked formidable enough for the immediate task of routing Goodluck Jonathan.
If however the political class was yet to fully come to term with the experience of such political expedition, the lessons learnt so far by the duo of Atiku and Kwankwaso could not easily be forgotten; at least not so soon. Probably what the presidential hopefuls did not consider in their permutation was the likelihood of APC becoming another riddle; and if not an albatross. Interestingly, Atiku has retraced his steps, while Kwankwaso has, by unforeseen circumstances, been rendered politically comatose; maybe pitiably in the lurch. Nevertheless, no one can tell for now what providence has in stock for Kwankwaso with regards to APC presidential ticket in 2019 just in case Buhari decides not to run.
It should however be instructive that what significantly played out in 2015 was in tandem with the peculiar feature of democratic regimentation or what has been characterised as ‘moderated democracy’. The power oligarchy came out smoking in full arsenals; the same way it forayed the political space towards the enthronement of General Olusegun Obasanjo in the transitional election of 1999. While Obasanjo and Buhari being former military heads of state benefitted from the consensus or perhaps gang-up of power oligarchy in 1999 and 2015, it is not clear whether emerging dynamics suggests a likely hiccup that will motivate such frenzy ahead of 2019. And in the event of such possibility, it may be too early in the day whoever the beneficiary could be. But whatever the equation the power oligarchy may be up to this time or the direction of the plot ahead of 2019, what is however apparent is that the electorate may have little or no choice to make.
There is a sense in which 2019 presidential race promises to be engaging considering the emotion attached to the ambitions of gladiators. Considering that no presidential candidate from the south will pose considerable threat, the dynamics will no doubt throw the north open for freedom of contest unlike in 2015 when a convenient argument of northern interest against southern dominance of presidency became an underlining factor regardless of how deliberate attempts were made to obscure such reality. The urge by some interest in APC to have Buhari on the ballot in 2019 is geared towards benefiting from his cult-like political stature in the north; the same way some elements in the south hope to exploit the perceived integrity of the president even when such grandstand now appears seriously bruised. In spite of the confidence which Buhari’s recent visit to Kano state continue to exude in the APC, the prospect of Atiku flying the flag of PDP suggests that 2019 will be a different ball-game altogether as the scenarios of a two horse race by cnadidate in the north unfold.
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